Newry and Armagh: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Newry and Armagh: Overview

Prediction: SF

Implied MP at 2019:Mickey Brady  (SF)
County/Area:Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:74,651
Implied Turnout 2019:62.5%
Predicted Turnout:62.5%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
SF19,28941.3%41.4%
DUP9,51420.4%20.4%
SDLP8,69218.6%18.7%
Alliance3,9928.6%8.6%
UUP3,6497.8%7.9%
OTH1,5333.3%3.1%
SF Majority9,77520.9%20.9%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
SF
88%
DUP
8%
SDLP
4%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%

Newry and Armagh : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Newry and Armagh constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %36%44%52%
British Identity19%32%52%
Average Age48.849.349.5
Good Education46%48%49%
Employed57%56%58%
Homeowner71%69%63%
Car owner90%87%77%
Married47%46%45%
Ethnic White98%97%83%
Christian90%81%50%
ABC1 Class39%46%55%
Average House Price£136,481£148,218£309,210
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Newry and Armagh: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Newry and Armagh

The new seat of Newry and Armagh is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Newry and ArmaghActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,059Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,572Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,549Newry and ArmaghDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,567Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,761Newry and ArmaghDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,704Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,534Newry and ArmaghDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,888Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,534Newry and ArmaghDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,192Newry and ArmaghDUPDUP
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,331Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey205Down SouthSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,234Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,218Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,870Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,910Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,366Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly544Down SouthSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,188Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom3,090Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill3,014Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane3,106Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,881Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,638Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's533Down SouthSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,863Newry and ArmaghSFSF
 Total74,351 SFSF

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Newry and Armagh if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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