Runcorn and Helsby: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Runcorn and Helsby: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Mike Amesbury  (LAB)
County/Area:Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:70,451
Turnout:69.1%
Implied Majority 2019:6,621

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB24,48050.3%
CON15,00430.8%
Green3,0196.2%
LIB2,6235.4%
OTH1,8953.9%
Reform1,6313.4%
LAB Majority9,47619.5%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Chance of winning
LAB
88%
CON
12%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Runcorn and Helsby : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Runcorn and Helsby constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position6° Left4° Left
National Position3° Nat1° Nat
Social Position2° Con2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %54%54%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born97%92%87%
Good Education35%37%39%
Good Job48%49%51%
High SEC47%48%51%
Average Age49.448.548.3
ABC1 Class48%50%54%
Average House Price£211,101£202,780£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Runcorn and Helsby: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Runcorn and Helsby

The new seat of Runcorn and Helsby is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Runcorn and HelsbyActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterFrodsham7,567Weaver ValeCONCON2,5881,95928588321001985,439
Cheshire West and ChesterGowy Rural1,310Chester, City ofCONCON4433623414550032940
Cheshire West and ChesterGowy Rural808EddisburyCONCON311146570430024581
Cheshire West and ChesterGowy Rural5,325Ellesmere Port and NestonCONCON1,6561,319171114288001413,689
Cheshire West and ChesterHelsby4,210Weaver ValeCONCON1,3261,18613360213001093,027
Cheshire West and ChesterSandstone1,633EddisburyCONCON69617215809300561,175
Cheshire West and ChesterSandstone10Ellesmere Port and NestonCONCON421000007
Cheshire West and ChesterSandstone2,485Weaver ValeCONCON9215251223711300691,787
HaltonBeechwood and Heath3,154HaltonLABLAB51596914013117600942,025
HaltonBeechwood and Heath2,930Weaver ValeLABLAB7189331736013500882,107
HaltonBridgewater5,521HaltonLABLAB4602,392170207175001433,547
HaltonDaresbury, Moore and Sandymoor3,495Weaver ValeCONCON1,2108251735215500982,513
HaltonGrange5,218HaltonLABLAB4442,160159202249001383,352
HaltonGrange530Weaver ValeLABLAB86237159200014381
HaltonHalton Castle4,690HaltonLABLAB3392,16491176136001063,012
HaltonHalton Castle206Weaver ValeLABLAB3299437005150
HaltonHalton Lea5,038Weaver ValeLABLAB7292,42912174141001273,621
HaltonMersey and Weston5,650HaltonLABLAB5792,127222223315001643,630
HaltonNorton North5,666Weaver ValeLABLAB1,1302,223226104234001564,073
HaltonNorton South and Preston Brook5,005Weaver ValeLABLAB8182,25216878149001323,597
 Total70,451 LABLAB15,00524,4812,6231,6323,018001,89448,653

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Runcorn and Helsby if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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