Staffordshire Moorlands: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Staffordshire Moorlands: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Karen Bradley  (CON)
County/Area:Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:72,269
Turnout:67.4%
Implied Majority 2019:17,939

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
CON28,55358.7%
LAB13,26527.3%
Green2,8305.8%
LIB2,5375.2%
OTH1,4913.1%
CON Majority15,28831.4%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Chance of winning
CON
97%
LAB
3%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Staffordshire Moorlands : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Staffordshire Moorlands constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right3° Right
National Position15° Nat7° Nat
Social Position9° Con6° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %64%59%52%
British Identity25%29%29%
Good Health44%45%48%
UK Born98%89%87%
Good Education36%36%39%
Good Job47%48%51%
High SEC48%46%51%
Average Age52.048.648.3
ABC1 Class48%49%54%
Average House Price£212,078£235,222£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Staffordshire Moorlands: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Staffordshire Moorlands

The new seat of Staffordshire Moorlands is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Staffordshire MoorlandsActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Staffordshire MoorlandsAlton1,216Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON538192250320023810
Staffordshire MoorlandsBagnall and Stanley1,442Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON700142280650027962
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph East4,743Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON1,4281,41595013200903,160
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph Moor1,446Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON672179400440029964
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph North4,725Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON1,975734111024000913,151
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph South1,471Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON5752261000460035982
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph West4,305Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON1,75880596012700832,869
Staffordshire MoorlandsBrown Edge and Endon4,157Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON1,728478267020000972,770
Staffordshire MoorlandsCaverswall1,515Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON7351802703900281,009
Staffordshire MoorlandsCellarhead2,735Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON1,28930555012200521,823
Staffordshire MoorlandsCheadle North East2,803StoneCONCON992610145020200652,014
Staffordshire MoorlandsCheadle South East2,872StoneCONCON1,067636160013200682,063
Staffordshire MoorlandsCheadle West4,023StoneCONCON1,638750218018900952,890
Staffordshire MoorlandsCheddleton4,586Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON1,783856182014000963,057
Staffordshire MoorlandsChurnet2,763Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON1,3063445908100531,843
Staffordshire MoorlandsDane1,375Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON652147250660026916
Staffordshire MoorlandsHamps Valley1,556Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON7661702904200291,036
Staffordshire MoorlandsHorton1,644Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON7552174005200321,096
Staffordshire MoorlandsIpstones1,583Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON7312103504900301,055
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek East4,150Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON1,453893196013500902,767
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek North4,363Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON1,3121,29498012000842,908
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek South4,667Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON1,3911,210195021700983,111
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek West3,807Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON1,320788166018200812,537
Staffordshire MoorlandsManifold1,573Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON6891799205200361,048
Staffordshire MoorlandsWerrington2,749Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON1,29930652012400521,833
 Total72,269 CONCON28,55213,2662,53602,830001,49048,674

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Staffordshire Moorlands if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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