Stoke-on-Trent Central: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Stoke-on-Trent Central: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Jo Gideon  (CON)
County/Area:Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Implied Turnout 2019:58.7%
Predicted Turnout:48.9%

CON Majority2,1355.1%26.1%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Chance of winning

Stoke-on-Trent Central : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Stoke-on-Trent Central constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABCONCON
Party Winner 2015LABCONCON
Economic Position6° Left3° Right
National Position11° Nat7° Nat
Social Position6° Con6° Con
EU Leave %69%59%52%
Average Age46.949.849.5
Good Education40%46%49%
Car owner69%79%77%
Ethnic White81%77%83%
ABC1 Class39%51%56%
Gross Household Income£32,900£39,700£42,397
Average House Price£120,908£231,981£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Stoke-on-Trent Central: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Stoke-on-Trent Central

The new seat of Stoke-on-Trent Central is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Stoke-on-Trent CentralActualPredicted
Old SeatGE19
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton4,150Stoke-on-Trent CentralLABLAB
Stoke-on-TrentBasford and Hartshill3,766Stoke-on-Trent CentralLABLAB
Stoke-on-TrentBentilee, Ubberley and Townsend8,144Stoke-on-Trent CentralLABLAB
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Northwood7,149Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONLAB
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Northwood105Stoke-on-Trent NorthCONLAB
Stoke-on-TrentBoothen3,418Stoke-on-Trent CentralLABLAB
Stoke-on-TrentBucknall and Eaton Park3,949Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONLAB
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley2,577Stoke-on-Trent CentralLABLAB
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley1,265Stoke-on-Trent NorthLABLAB
Stoke-on-TrentFenton East4,134Stoke-on-Trent SouthCONLAB
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant131Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONLAB
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant3,864Stoke-on-Trent SouthCONLAB
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park, Joiner's Square and Shelton7,104Stoke-on-Trent CentralLABLAB
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park, Joiner's Square and Shelton67Stoke-on-Trent SouthLABLAB
Stoke-on-TrentHartshill Park and Stoke3,331Stoke-on-Trent CentralLABLAB
Stoke-on-TrentLongton and Meir Hay South70Stoke-on-Trent SouthCONLAB
Stoke-on-TrentMeir Hay North, Parkhall and Weston Coyney740Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONLAB
Stoke-on-TrentMeir Hay North, Parkhall and Weston Coyney3,332Stoke-on-Trent SouthCONLAB
Stoke-on-TrentMoorcroft and Sneyd Green796Stoke-on-Trent CentralLABLAB
Stoke-on-TrentMoorcroft and Sneyd Green1,865Stoke-on-Trent NorthLABLAB
Stoke-on-TrentPenkhull and Springfields3,748Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONLAB
Stoke-on-TrentSandford Hill4,153Stoke-on-Trent SouthCONLAB
Stoke-on-TrentTrent Vale and Oak Hill3,570Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONLAB
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton15Stoke-on-Trent NorthLABLAB
 Total71,443 CONLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Stoke-on-Trent Central if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.

© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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