Stoke-on-Trent Central: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Stoke-on-Trent Central: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Jo Gideon  (CON)
County/Area:Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:71,444
Turnout:58.7%
Implied Majority 2019:2,138

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB18,00142.9%
CON17,84142.6%
Green2,0734.9%
OTH1,4423.4%
LIB1,2913.1%
Reform1,2803.1%
LAB Majority1600.4%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Chance of winning
LAB
49%
CON
51%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
LIB
0%
Reform
0%

Stoke-on-Trent Central : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Stoke-on-Trent Central constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABCONCON
Party Winner 2015LABCONCON
Economic Position6° Left3° Right
National Position11° Nat7° Nat
Social Position6° Con6° Con
TribeSomewheres
EU Leave %70%59%52%
British Identity24%29%29%
Good Health42%45%48%
UK Born90%89%87%
Good Education29%36%39%
Good Job35%48%51%
High SEC32%46%51%
Average Age45.648.648.3
ABC1 Class37%49%54%
Average House Price£120,908£235,222£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Stoke-on-Trent Central: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Stoke-on-Trent Central

The new seat of Stoke-on-Trent Central is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Stoke-on-Trent CentralActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton and Townsend6,910Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONLAB1,6341,79693152186001383,999
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton and Townsend16Stoke-on-Trent NorthCONCON540000009
Stoke-on-TrentBentilee and Ubberley6,733Stoke-on-Trent CentralLABLAB1,2941,77389366204001713,897
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Central Forest Park7,233Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONCON1,9591,607128143205001444,186
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Central Forest Park35Stoke-on-Trent NorthCONCON10811100122
Stoke-on-TrentBoothen and Oak Hill3,894Stoke-on-Trent CentralLABLAB8501,010756517600762,252
Stoke-on-TrentEaton Park3,443Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONCON1,05364264758900701,993
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley2,523Stoke-on-Trent CentralLABLAB45982130376500471,459
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley1,208Stoke-on-Trent NorthLABLAB2413761422320026711
Stoke-on-TrentFenton East4,010Stoke-on-Trent SouthCONCON1,1861,0598306300712,462
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant117Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONCON332422400267
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant3,682Stoke-on-Trent SouthCONCON1,2498078105800662,261
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park and Shelton2,687Stoke-on-Trent CentralLABLAB46187946348500501,555
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park and Shelton42Stoke-on-Trent SouthLABLAB101410100127
Stoke-on-TrentHartshill and Basford4,521Stoke-on-Trent CentralLABLAB9321,296967013400882,616
Stoke-on-TrentJoiner's Square3,705Stoke-on-Trent CentralLABLAB6851,176476410200712,145
Stoke-on-TrentMeir Hay3,772Stoke-on-Trent SouthCONCON1,5305778205900672,315
Stoke-on-TrentPenkhull and Stoke4,704Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONLAB1,0551,1531097923200942,722
Stoke-on-TrentSandford Hill4,154Stoke-on-Trent SouthCONCON1,1961,11310006600752,550
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green809Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONCON2051921418220016467
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green2,788Stoke-on-Trent NorthCONCON76060050707700801,637
Stoke-on-TrentSpringfields and Trent Vale4,458Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONLAB1,0351,075858321300882,579
 Total71,444 CONLAB17,84218,0021,2901,2812,074001,44241,931

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Stoke-on-Trent Central if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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