Stroud: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Stroud: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Siobhan Baillie  (CON)
County/Area:Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate:76,249
Implied Turnout 2019:77.8%
Predicted Turnout:72.5%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON27,21745.9%23.4%
LAB25,00942.2%45.2%
Green4,6337.8%9.9%
LIB1,1101.9%5.5%
Reform8391.4%14.8%
OTH4820.8%1.2%
CON Majority2,2083.7%21.8%
LAB Maj

See overview of other seats in South West.

Chance of winning
CON
7%
LAB
92%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
Reform
1%
OTH
0%

Stroud : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Stroud constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2024LABCONLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABCONCON
Economic Position8° Right
National Position2° Glo4° Nat
Social Position2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %46%53%52%
Average Age53.151.649.5
Good Education55%52%49%
Employed60%57%58%
Homeowner74%68%63%
Car owner88%84%77%
Married49%47%45%
Ethnic White97%93%83%
Christian50%49%50%
ABC1 Class62%58%56%
Gross Household Income£44,732£41,731£42,397
Deprivation46%50%52%
Average House Price£324,662£311,706£313,528

Stroud ranks #480 for "Leave", #372 for "Economic Right Position", #447 for "National Position" and #484 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Stroud: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Stroud

The new seat of Stroud is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: StroudActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
StroudBerkeley Vale5,804StroudCONLAB
StroudCam East3,738StroudCONLAB
StroudCam West3,189StroudCONLAB
StroudCoaley and Uley2,005StroudCONLAB
StroudDursley5,516StroudLABLAB
StroudRandwick, Whiteshill and Ruscombe1,794StroudCONLAB
StroudStroud Central1,759StroudLABLAB
StroudStroud Farmhill and Paganhill1,904StroudCONLAB
StroudStroud Slade1,849StroudLABLAB
StroudStroud Uplands1,669StroudLABLAB
StroudStroud Valley1,749StroudLABLAB
StroudThe Stanleys3,806StroudCONLAB
StroudAmberley and Woodchester1,795StroudCONLAB
StroudChalford5,311StroudCONLAB
StroudKingswood40Cotswolds, TheCONCON
StroudNailsworth5,343StroudLABLAB
StroudRodborough3,582StroudLABLAB
StroudStroud Trinity1,684StroudLABLAB
StroudThrupp2,004StroudCONLAB
StroudWotton-under-Edge625StroudCONLAB
StroudWotton-under-Edge5,079Cotswolds, TheCONLAB
StroudCainscross5,851StroudLABLAB
StroudSevern4,278StroudCONLAB
StroudStonehouse5,877StroudLABLAB
 Total76,251 CONLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Stroud if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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