Tonbridge: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Tonbridge: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Tom Tugendhat  (CON)
County/Area:Kent (South East)
Electorate:72,745
Implied Turnout 2019:71.4%
Predicted Turnout:66.5%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON33,35364.2%39.8%
LAB7,55514.5%29.0%
LIB7,08513.6%7.5%
Green3,9507.6%13.0%
OTH250.0%1.2%
Reform00.0%9.6%
CON Majority25,79849.6%10.8%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in South East.

Chance of winning
CON
76%
LAB
23%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Tonbridge : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Tonbridge constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position16° Right11° Right
National Position8° Nat3° Nat
Social Position4° Con1° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %54%52%52%
Average Age52.450.449.5
Good Education52%53%49%
Employed59%59%58%
Homeowner73%68%63%
Car owner88%84%77%
Married52%48%45%
Ethnic White93%86%83%
Christian53%50%50%
ABC1 Class66%62%56%
Gross Household Income£51,588£50,167£42,397
Deprivation46%48%52%
Average House Price£475,627£409,816£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Tonbridge: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Tonbridge

The new seat of Tonbridge is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: TonbridgeActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
SevenoaksCowden and Hever1,610Tonbridge and MallingCONCON
SevenoaksEdenbridge North and East3,593Tonbridge and MallingCONCON
SevenoaksEdenbridge South and West3,038Tonbridge and MallingCONCON
SevenoaksAsh and New Ash Green22DartfordCONCON
SevenoaksAsh and New Ash Green4,550SevenoaksCONCON
SevenoaksHartley and Hodsoll Street4,669DartfordCONCON
SevenoaksLeigh and Chiddingstone Causeway1,750Tonbridge and MallingCONCON
SevenoaksPenshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone1,897Tonbridge and MallingCONCON
Tonbridge and MallingBirling, Leybourne and Ryarsh1,647Tonbridge and MallingCONCON
Tonbridge and MallingBorough Green and Platt4,454Tonbridge and MallingCONCON
Tonbridge and MallingBourne4,170Tonbridge and MallingCONCON
Tonbridge and MallingCage Green and Angel6,765Tonbridge and MallingCONCON
Tonbridge and MallingEast and West Peckham, Mereworth and Wateringbury4,944Tonbridge and MallingCONCON
Tonbridge and MallingEast Malling, West Malling and Offham942Tonbridge and MallingCONCON
Tonbridge and MallingHigham4,723Tonbridge and MallingCONCON
Tonbridge and MallingHildenborough4,280Tonbridge and MallingCONCON
Tonbridge and MallingJudd4,685Tonbridge and MallingCONLAB
Tonbridge and MallingPilgrims with Ightham4,515Tonbridge and MallingCONCON
Tonbridge and MallingTrench4,219Tonbridge and MallingCONLAB
Tonbridge and MallingVauxhall6,272Tonbridge and MallingCONLAB
 Total72,745 CONCON

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Tonbridge if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (19-Feb-2024 16:41, Py3L, sc1646)