Tyrone West: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Tyrone West: Overview

Prediction: SF

Implied MP at 2019:Órfhlaith Begley  (SF)
County/Area:Fermanagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:70,628
Implied Turnout 2019:62.2%
Predicted Turnout:62.2%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
SF17,47439.8%39.8%
DUP9,51121.6%21.7%
SDLP8,25718.8%18.9%
Alliance4,1699.5%9.5%
UUP2,9576.7%6.8%
OTH1,0262.3%2.2%
Green5211.2%0.9%
MIN350.1%0.1%
SF Majority7,96318.1%18.1%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
SF
85%
DUP
10%
SDLP
5%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
MIN
0%

Tyrone West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Tyrone West constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %33%44%52%
British Identity20%32%52%
Average Age49.649.349.5
Good Education44%48%49%
Employed55%56%58%
Homeowner72%69%63%
Car owner90%87%77%
Married47%46%45%
Ethnic White99%97%83%
Christian93%81%50%
ABC1 Class35%46%55%
Average House Price£133,284£148,218£309,210
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Tyrone West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Tyrone West

The new seat of Tyrone West is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Tyrone WestActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Derry and StrabaneArtigarvan2,680Tyrone WestDUPDUP
Derry and StrabaneBallycolman2,694Tyrone WestSFSF
Derry and StrabaneCastlederg2,525Tyrone WestSFSF
Derry and StrabaneDunnamanagh2,596Tyrone WestDUPDUP
Derry and StrabaneFinn2,997Tyrone WestSFSF
Derry and StrabaneGlenderg2,496Tyrone WestDUPDUP
Derry and StrabaneGlenelly Valley2,559Tyrone WestSFSF
Derry and StrabaneNewtownstewart2,263Tyrone WestDUPDUP
Derry and StrabaneSion Mills2,723Tyrone WestSFSF
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk1,774FoyleSDLPSDLP
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk805Tyrone WestSDLPSDLP
Derry and StrabaneStrabane North2,735Tyrone WestSFSF
Derry and StrabaneStrabane West2,414Tyrone WestSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghBeragh2,121Tyrone WestSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghCamowen2,132Tyrone WestDUPDUP
Fermanagh and OmaghCoolnagard2,189Tyrone WestSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghDergmoney1,680Tyrone WestDUPDUP
Fermanagh and OmaghDromore1,958Tyrone WestSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumnakilly2,142Tyrone WestSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumquin2,164Tyrone WestSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghFairy Water2,184Tyrone WestSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghFintona1,815Tyrone WestSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghGortin2,222Tyrone WestSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghGortrush2,134Tyrone WestSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghKillyclogher2,195Tyrone WestSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownsaville2,154Tyrone WestSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghOwenkillew2,087Tyrone WestSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghSixmilecross2,055Tyrone WestSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghStrule1,691Tyrone WestSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghTermon1,956Tyrone WestSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghTrillick1,887Tyrone WestSFSF
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,591Ulster MidSFSF
 Total70,618 SFSF

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Tyrone West if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


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