Tyrone West: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Tyrone West: Overview

Prediction: SF

Implied MP at 2019:Órfhlaith Begley  (SF)
County/Area:Fermanagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:70,593
Turnout:62.2%
Implied Majority 2019:8,858

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
SF18,14141.3%
DUP9,28321.1%
SDLP7,74317.6%
Alliance4,2169.6%
UUP3,0046.8%
OTH1,0322.3%
Green5171.2%
NAT Majority8,85820.2%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
SF
100%
DUP
0%
SDLP
0%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Tyrone West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Tyrone West constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %33%44%52%
British Identity25%40%29%
Good Health47%48%48%
UK Born93%93%87%
Good Education31%36%39%
Good Job41%47%51%
High SEC54%57%51%
Average Age46.947.248.3
ABC1 Class34%46%53%
Average House Price£132,605£148,749£305,492
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Tyrone West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Tyrone West

The new seat of Tyrone West is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Tyrone WestActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneArtigarvan2,625Tyrone WestDUPDUP69328577166164300461,632
Derry and StrabaneBallycolman2,724Tyrone WestSFSF21468225114138050471,693
Derry and StrabaneCastlederg2,505Tyrone WestSFSF179254445116135120371,556
Derry and StrabaneDunnamanagh2,560Tyrone WestDUPDUP107236673178153360441,589
Derry and StrabaneFinn2,962Tyrone WestSFSF85456308138167950441,842
Derry and StrabaneGlenderg2,456Tyrone WestDUPDUP192235482115134530371,527
Derry and StrabaneGlenelly Valley2,503Tyrone WestSFSF39361432117145490441,556
Derry and StrabaneNewtownstewart2,260Tyrone WestDUPDUP191183508130133450361,406
Derry and StrabaneSion Mills2,710Tyrone WestSFSF133328400127156400411,684
Derry and StrabaneStrabane North2,727Tyrone WestSFSF21457248117147890481,694
Derry and StrabaneStrabane West2,378Tyrone WestSFSF18393205100127090411,478
Fermanagh and OmaghBeragh2,078Tyrone WestSFSF170147350132114470321,289
Fermanagh and OmaghCamowen2,153Tyrone WestDUPDUP177153457237292520331,338
Fermanagh and OmaghCoolnagard2,323Tyrone WestSFSF45260182202586550411,443
Fermanagh and OmaghDergmoney1,827Tyrone WestDUPDUP127137311221462620301,134
Fermanagh and OmaghDromore1,945Tyrone WestSFSF6523821410195640161,207
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumnakilly2,133Tyrone WestSFSF65194153105127620341,325
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumquin2,115Tyrone WestSFSF8923226393116040231,315
Fermanagh and OmaghFairy Water2,191Tyrone WestSFSF17119238316710434041,361
Fermanagh and OmaghFintona1,796Tyrone WestSFSF721882418994980201,117
Fermanagh and OmaghGortin2,228Tyrone WestSFSF146159275189125680351,384
Fermanagh and OmaghGortrush2,191Tyrone WestSFSF44235186159286700391,361
Fermanagh and OmaghKillyclogher2,239Tyrone WestSFSF56259207176346200391,391
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownsaville2,146Tyrone WestSFSF145224313959540071,333
Fermanagh and OmaghOwenkillew2,057Tyrone WestSFSF4217914293117770331,277
Fermanagh and OmaghSixmilecross2,011Tyrone WestSFSF8214917399117030321,249
Fermanagh and OmaghStrule1,823Tyrone WestSFSF29142171194455180351,134
Fermanagh and OmaghTermon1,936Tyrone WestSFSF4020512784107080291,203
Fermanagh and OmaghTrillick1,860Tyrone WestSFSF912082427995150121,156
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,541Ulster MidSFSF15723019314408430411,608
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,590Ulster MidSFSF13930818913808350321,641
 Total70,593 SFSF3,0077,7389,2754,21551818,13801,03243,923

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Tyrone West if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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