Tyrone West: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Tyrone West: Overview

Prediction: SF

Implied MP at 2019:Órfhlaith Begley  (SF)
County/Area:Fermanagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:70,593
Turnout:62.2%
Implied Majority 2019:8,858

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
SF18,14141.3%
DUP9,28321.1%
SDLP7,74317.6%
Alliance4,2169.6%
UUP3,0046.8%
OTH1,0322.3%
Green5171.2%
NAT Majority8,85820.2%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
SF
100%
DUP
0%
SDLP
0%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Tyrone West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Tyrone West constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %33%44%52%
British Identity25%40%29%
Good Health47%48%48%
UK Born93%93%87%
Good Education31%36%39%
Good Job41%47%51%
High SEC54%57%51%
Average Age46.947.248.3
ABC1 Class34%46%53%
Average House Price£132,605£148,749£305,492
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Tyrone West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Tyrone West

The new seat of Tyrone West is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Tyrone WestActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneArtigarvan2,625Tyrone WestDUPDUP92319572157154300461,631
Derry and StrabaneBallycolman2,724Tyrone WestSFSF27465223112138050471,692
Derry and StrabaneCastlederg2,505Tyrone WestSFSF157263450124145110371,556
Derry and StrabaneDunnamanagh2,560Tyrone WestDUPDUP116233672175153360441,591
Derry and StrabaneFinn2,962Tyrone WestSFSF111447303127157950441,842
Derry and StrabaneGlenderg2,456Tyrone WestDUPDUP164247488125144520371,527
Derry and StrabaneGlenelly Valley2,503Tyrone WestSFSF53356430112135490441,557
Derry and StrabaneNewtownstewart2,260Tyrone WestDUPDUP159196514141143440361,404
Derry and StrabaneSion Mills2,710Tyrone WestSFSF134328400126156400411,684
Derry and StrabaneStrabane North2,727Tyrone WestSFSF28455247115137890481,695
Derry and StrabaneStrabane West2,378Tyrone WestSFSF2439020498127090411,478
Fermanagh and OmaghBeragh2,078Tyrone WestSFSF143159356141134470321,291
Fermanagh and OmaghCamowen2,153Tyrone WestDUPDUP149165463247302520331,339
Fermanagh and OmaghCoolnagard2,323Tyrone WestSFSF61254179196576550411,443
Fermanagh and OmaghDergmoney1,827Tyrone WestDUPDUP113143314226462620301,134
Fermanagh and OmaghDromore1,945Tyrone WestSFSF782332129795640161,209
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumnakilly2,133Tyrone WestSFSF8218715099117620341,325
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumquin2,115Tyrone WestSFSF9622926290106040231,314
Fermanagh and OmaghFairy Water2,191Tyrone WestSFSF14620238917611434041,362
Fermanagh and OmaghFintona1,796Tyrone WestSFSF791852408594970201,115
Fermanagh and OmaghGortin2,228Tyrone WestSFSF133166278193135670351,385
Fermanagh and OmaghGortrush2,191Tyrone WestSFSF59230183154286700391,363
Fermanagh and OmaghKillyclogher2,239Tyrone WestSFSF76252204170336200391,394
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownsaville2,146Tyrone WestSFSF13023131610010540071,334
Fermanagh and OmaghOwenkillew2,057Tyrone WestSFSF5717314088107770331,278
Fermanagh and OmaghSixmilecross2,011Tyrone WestSFSF9014617296117030321,250
Fermanagh and OmaghStrule1,823Tyrone WestSFSF38139169190455180351,134
Fermanagh and OmaghTermon1,936Tyrone WestSFSF541991247997080291,202
Fermanagh and OmaghTrillick1,860Tyrone WestSFSF922092427895150121,157
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,541Ulster MidSFSF13623319515608490411,610
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,590Ulster MidSFSF12730919214308370321,640
 Total70,593 SFSF3,0047,7439,2834,21651718,14101,03243,936

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Tyrone West if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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