Tyrone West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Tyrone West: Overview

 Predicted winner: SF 
 Acual winner: SF 

MP at 2019: Órfhlaith Begley  (SF)
County/Area: Tyrone (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 66,259
Turnout: 62.2%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SF16,54440.2%43.7%
DUP9,06622.0%18.6%
SDLP7,33017.8%15.2%
Alliance3,9799.7%8.2%
UUP2,7746.7%6.7%
OTH9722.4%6.8%
Green5211.3%0.8%
SF Majority7,47818.2%Pred Maj 25.1%
Chance of
winning
SF
96%
DUP
4%
SDLP
1%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Tyrone West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Tyrone West constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %33%44%52%
British Identity26%40%29%
Good Health47%48%48%
UK Born93%93%88%
Good Education31%36%39%
Good Job42%47%51%
High SEC54%57%51%
Average Age47.147.248.4
ABC1 Class35%45%53%

Tyrone West ranks #598 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Tyrone West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Tyrone West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Tyrone West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Tyrone West at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Tyrone West. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Tyrone WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
Derry and StrabaneArtigarvan201416015944600474232
Derry and StrabaneBallycolman20141332318100791257
Derry and StrabaneCastlederg201427612533600600114
Derry and StrabaneDunnamanagh20141929354000363272
Derry and StrabaneFinn20142303352180095589
Derry and StrabaneGlenderg20143191043540051475
Derry and StrabaneGlenelly Valley20149218930800524198
Derry and StrabaneNewtownstewart20143487341600428105
Derry and StrabaneSion Mills201423818929300733138
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk2014118221424350210151
Derry and StrabaneStrabane North20141128719000726282
Derry and StrabaneStrabane West20141126316100680232
Fermanagh and OmaghBeragh20143348024027315300
Fermanagh and OmaghCamowen201423212737074018516
Fermanagh and OmaghCoolnagard2014903261537005112
Fermanagh and OmaghDergmoney201413615323173021710
Fermanagh and OmaghDromore201417924520137063313
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumnakilly20141942105820408080
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumquin201420321423014063315
Fermanagh and OmaghFairy Water20143211653426204130
Fermanagh and OmaghFintona201416617622221054933
Fermanagh and OmaghGortin201428311619765536980
Fermanagh and OmaghGortrush2014832911464505034
Fermanagh and OmaghKillyclogher2014952751434904321
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownsaville20142351852462005011
Fermanagh and OmaghOwenkillew2014132183334277580
Fermanagh and OmaghSixmilecross2014198158824267780
Fermanagh and OmaghStrule20144520914666038352
Fermanagh and OmaghTermon2014122192192226480
Fermanagh and OmaghTrillick20141931992151805556

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Tyrone WestEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneArtigarvan2,546109246559129194820391,583
Derry and StrabaneBallycolman2,70755344232155218320451,684
Derry and StrabaneCastlederg2,508122221418123196190371,559
Derry and StrabaneDunnamanagh2,525121206694119193730371,569
Derry and StrabaneFinn3,159136355294175249280501,962
Derry and StrabaneGlenderg2,365117201448114185370351,470
Derry and StrabaneGlenelly Valley2,26876246373120185410361,410
Derry and StrabaneNewtownstewart2,370121186547111184570341,474
Derry and StrabaneSion Mills2,752133270362141217410421,710
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk89937112217567115015559
Derry and StrabaneStrabane North2,58854323239147207830431,609
Derry and StrabaneStrabane West2,33048287203131187220381,447
Fermanagh and OmaghBeragh2,078108181290118175520261,292
Fermanagh and OmaghCamowen2,232112239539160192870321,388
Fermanagh and OmaghCoolnagard2,56188404227220215940371,591
Fermanagh and OmaghDergmoney1,82192226358154162590281,133
Fermanagh and OmaghDromore2,04997244216125175450291,273
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumnakilly2,22798226181128167050301,384
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumquin2,05398225244112165510291,275
Fermanagh and OmaghFairy Water2,043108222385132183780261,269
Fermanagh and OmaghFintona1,82887196236102154720291,137
Fermanagh and OmaghGortin2,364119221233157196880311,468
Fermanagh and OmaghGortrush2,38182361214177205920341,480
Fermanagh and OmaghKillyclogher2,21185343209179185070321,373
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownsaville1,86192205266105154510241,158
Fermanagh and OmaghOwenkillew1,90472185145102146420241,184
Fermanagh and OmaghSixmilecross2,08592189168109156980261,297
Fermanagh and OmaghStrule2,00260278210180174640351,244
Fermanagh and OmaghTermon1,6826617813293125420221,045
Fermanagh and OmaghTrillick1,86090209227105154870251,158
 Total66,2592,7757,3299,0663,97952216,544097041,185

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Tyrone West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Tyrone West.

Tyrone WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneArtigarvan2,54611622852701258701111,581
Derry and StrabaneBallycolman2,7076332020901495101271,684
Derry and StrabaneCastlederg2,50812920538701272001061,559
Derry and StrabaneDunnamanagh2,52512819166301247101041,569
Derry and StrabaneFinn3,1591463292650161,06401431,963
Derry and StrabaneGlenderg2,3651241864190126300991,470
Derry and StrabaneGlenelly Valley2,2688322834501263901031,410
Derry and StrabaneNewtownstewart2,3701271725180125480971,474
Derry and StrabaneSion Mills2,75214125032801485601211,710
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk8994010420605159045559
Derry and StrabaneStrabane North2,5886230021501389701221,609
Derry and StrabaneStrabane West2,3305526618301282301081,447
Fermanagh and OmaghBeragh2,0781151682640116450901,293
Fermanagh and OmaghCamowen2,23212122251101240701151,388
Fermanagh and OmaghCoolnagard2,5619938120401474901441,591
Fermanagh and OmaghDergmoney1,82110021033501037201061,133
Fermanagh and OmaghDromore2,0491042261940116420951,272
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumnakilly2,2271052101630108010961,385
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumquin2,0531042092200106410911,275
Fermanagh and OmaghFairy Water2,0431152063600124800961,269
Fermanagh and OmaghFintona1,828931822130105540851,137
Fermanagh and OmaghGortin2,36412720521001280301101,467
Fermanagh and OmaghGortrush2,3819133919301372101231,480
Fermanagh and OmaghKillyclogher2,2119432318801263601201,373
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownsaville1,861981902430105350821,158
Fermanagh and OmaghOwenkillew1,90477172131097190771,185
Fermanagh and OmaghSixmilecross2,085981751510107800831,297
Fermanagh and OmaghStrule2,0026926018901159201231,244
Fermanagh and OmaghTermon1,68271165119086120701,045
Fermanagh and OmaghTrillick1,860961942040105710831,158
 Total66,2592,9916,8168,357034119,60503,07541,185

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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