Upper Bann: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Upper Bann: Overview

Prediction: DUP

Implied MP at 2019:Carla Lockhart  (DUP)
County/Area:Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:77,317
Implied Turnout 2019:60.5%
Predicted Turnout:60.5%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
DUP19,50441.7%41.7%
SF11,10623.8%23.8%
UUP5,96712.8%12.8%
Alliance5,73712.3%12.3%
SDLP4,4079.4%9.4%
OTH370.1%0.1%
DUP Majority8,39818.0%18.0%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
DUP
89%
SF
9%
UUP
1%
Alliance
0%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%

Upper Bann : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Upper Bann constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %54%44%52%
British Identity34%32%52%
Average Age48.749.349.5
Good Education44%48%49%
Employed58%56%58%
Homeowner68%69%63%
Car owner87%87%77%
Married47%46%45%
Ethnic White95%97%83%
Christian82%81%50%
ABC1 Class42%46%55%
Average House Price£126,325£148,218£309,210
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Upper Bann: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Upper Bann

The new seat of Upper Bann is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Upper BannActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay2,870Upper BannDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,603Upper BannDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North3,154Upper BannDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,436Upper BannDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,685Upper BannDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,464Upper BannDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow3,762Upper BannSFSF
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain2,861Upper BannSFSF
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,591Upper BannDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,573Upper BannSFSF
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney3,375Upper BannDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,322Upper BannDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,457Upper BannDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain2,755Upper BannDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane3,058Upper BannDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,657Upper BannSFSF
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall3,420Newry and ArmaghDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon71Newry and ArmaghDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,091Upper BannDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,112Upper BannDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,518Upper BannSFSF
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill3,835Upper BannSFSF
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,473Upper BannDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,785Upper BannDUPDUP
 Total76,928 DUPDUP

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Upper Bann if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


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