Upper Bann: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Upper Bann: Overview

Prediction: DUP

Implied MP at 2019:Carla Lockhart  (DUP)
County/Area:Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:75,184
Turnout:60.5%
Implied Majority 2019:7,825

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
DUP18,72941.2%
SF10,90424.0%
UUP5,88813.0%
Alliance5,73012.6%
SDLP4,1939.2%
OTH120.0%
LIB Majority7,82517.2%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
DUP
100%
SF
0%
UUP
0%
Alliance
0%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%

Upper Bann : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Upper Bann constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %53%44%52%
British Identity43%40%29%
Good Health47%48%48%
UK Born92%93%87%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job44%47%51%
High SEC52%57%51%
Average Age46.747.248.3
ABC1 Class41%46%53%
Average House Price£126,024£148,749£305,492
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Upper Bann: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Upper Bann

The new seat of Upper Bann is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Upper BannActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East696Down SouthDUPDUP566614110007103437
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches454Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP15233023010206316
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney54Lagan ValleyDUPDUP61159000233
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon76Newry and ArmaghDUPDUP63245080147
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,174Upper BannDUPDUP254621,1502110240001,917
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,448Upper BannDUPDUP3191135652910189001,477
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North2,988Upper BannDUPDUP3941157053600230001,804
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,292Upper BannDUPDUP4461187993280296001,987
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,546Upper BannDUPDUP4701406973390495002,141
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,303Upper BannDUPDUP3632179821940238001,994
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow3,838Upper BannSFSF1323677121680938002,317
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain3,276Upper BannSFSF552895861400910001,980
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,959Upper BannDUPDUP3643789973240327002,390
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,392Upper BannSFSF1343116361490817002,047
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney3,226Upper BannDUPDUP320491,0063540219001,948
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,130Upper BannDUPDUP3951626262480459001,890
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,581Upper BannDUPDUP3812301,0262720253002,162
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain3,233Upper BannDUPDUP2161011,1202790236001,952
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane3,069Upper BannDUPDUP229789613130272001,853
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,574Upper BannSFSF4231156218301,059002,157
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,255Upper BannDUPDUP287971,1442040234001,966
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,286Upper BannDUPDUP148979162910532001,984
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,488Upper BannSFSF4029554121401,016002,106
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill3,812Upper BannSFSF4431360220201,141002,302
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,417Upper BannDUPDUP2621901,0721580382002,064
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,617Upper BannDUPDUP373571,1443710240002,185
 Total75,184 DUPDUP5,8884,19318,7295,730010,90401245,456

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Upper Bann if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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