Vale of Glamorgan: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Vale of Glamorgan: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Alun Cairns  (CON)
County/Area:South Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:70,148
Implied Turnout 2019:71.6%
Predicted Turnout:63.6%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON24,75049.3%24.8%
LAB22,08443.9%56.4%
Green2,9625.9%5.9%
OTH4570.9%0.2%
LIB00.0%2.1%
Reform00.0%9.9%
Plaid00.0%0.7%
CON Majority2,6665.3%31.6%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Chance of winning
CON
2%
LAB
98%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
LIB
0%
Reform
0%
Plaid
0%

Vale of Glamorgan : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Vale of Glamorgan constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position3° Right8° Left
National Position1° Nat
Social Position1° Lib2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %51%53%52%
Average Age51.551.149.5
Good Education52%49%49%
Employed56%53%58%
Homeowner72%67%63%
Car owner84%81%77%
Married46%44%45%
Ethnic White95%94%83%
Christian46%47%50%
ABC1 Class59%52%56%
Gross Household Income£40,217£36,386£42,397
Deprivation50%54%52%
Average House Price£244,817£193,404£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Vale of Glamorgan: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Vale of Glamorgan

The new seat of Vale of Glamorgan is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Vale of GlamorganActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Vale of GlamorganBaruc5,885Vale of GlamorganCONLAB
Vale of GlamorganButtrills4,456Vale of GlamorganLABLAB
Vale of GlamorganCadoc7,111Vale of GlamorganLABLAB
Vale of GlamorganCastleland3,546Vale of GlamorganLABLAB
Vale of GlamorganCourt3,317Vale of GlamorganLABLAB
Vale of GlamorganCowbridge5,182Vale of GlamorganCONLAB
Vale of GlamorganDyfan4,067Vale of GlamorganCONLAB
Vale of GlamorganGibbonsdown4,034Vale of GlamorganLABLAB
Vale of GlamorganIlltyd6,159Vale of GlamorganCONLAB
Vale of GlamorganLlandow1,566Vale of GlamorganCONLAB
Vale of GlamorganLlantwit Major7,967Vale of GlamorganCONLAB
Vale of GlamorganPeterston-super-Ely1,441Vale of GlamorganCONLAB
Vale of GlamorganRhoose5,462Vale of GlamorganCONLAB
Vale of GlamorganSt Athan3,254Vale of GlamorganCONLAB
Vale of GlamorganSt Bride's Major3,158Vale of GlamorganCONLAB
Vale of GlamorganSt Nicholas and Llancarfan1,680Vale of GlamorganCONLAB
Vale of GlamorganWenvoe1,865Vale of GlamorganCONLAB
 Total70,150 CONLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Vale of Glamorgan if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


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