Wrexham: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Wrexham: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Sarah Atherton  (CON)
County/Area:Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate:75,502
Turnout:67.4%
Implied Majority 2019:3,580

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB20,73140.7%
CON20,13739.6%
Plaid2,9815.9%
Green2,4364.8%
Reform2,1244.2%
LIB1,6243.2%
OTH8531.7%
LAB Majority5941.2%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Chance of winning
LAB
52%
CON
48%
Plaid
0%
Green
0%
Reform
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Wrexham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Wrexham constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position5° Left8° Left
National Position6° Nat
Social Position2° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity27%26%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born93%94%87%
Good Education35%37%39%
Good Job44%46%51%
High SEC44%46%51%
Average Age49.049.548.3
ABC1 Class44%48%54%
Average House Price£189,943£194,381£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Wrexham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Wrexham

The new seat of Wrexham is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: WrexhamActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WrexhamBronington2,620Clwyd SouthCONCON1,108420346564460281,765
WrexhamEsclusham2,013Clwyd SouthCONLAB4965233170501630221,355
WrexhamGwenfro1,217Clwyd SouthLABLAB28139225403237014821
WrexhamJohnstown2,461Clwyd SouthCONLAB631753428062620271,657
WrexhamMarchwiel1,830Clwyd SouthCONCON600443265645430191,232
WrexhamNew Broughton2,842Clwyd SouthCONLAB742832529173930311,914
WrexhamOverton2,710Clwyd SouthCONCON1,000557337566650281,824
WrexhamPant1,528Clwyd SouthLABLAB331515244938560161,029
WrexhamPonciau3,521Clwyd SouthLABLAB7631,056183105116970502,370
WrexhamBryn Cefn1,543Clwyd SouthCONCON480383194538580161,039
WrexhamCoedpoeth3,482Clwyd SouthLABLAB6531,187145961071100462,344
WrexhamActon2,173WrexhamLABLAB4696156070781470261,465
WrexhamBorras Park1,964WrexhamCONCON682364595970670241,325
WrexhamBrynyffynnon2,472WrexhamLABLAB5027723662861810261,665
WrexhamErddig1,441WrexhamCONCON42933053395845018972
WrexhamGarden Village1,653WrexhamCONCON513409354257380191,113
WrexhamGrosvenor1,695WrexhamLABLAB3175083343671530191,140
WrexhamGwersyllt North1,991WrexhamLABLAB459659205264690201,343
WrexhamGwersyllt West2,259WrexhamLABLAB5026452672741820231,524
WrexhamHermitage1,541WrexhamLABLAB267583173748700161,038
WrexhamLittle Acton1,840WrexhamCONCON551468304961630201,242
WrexhamLlay3,507WrexhamCONLAB876936136139137960452,365
WrexhamMaesydre1,417WrexhamLABLAB30746445385233017956
WrexhamMarford and Hoseley1,821WrexhamCONCON712289563867450221,229
WrexhamOffa1,425WrexhamCONLAB305365454581102017960
WrexhamQueensway1,374WrexhamLABLAB2115338404379014928
WrexhamRossett2,638WrexhamCONCON1,046421765293590321,779
WrexhamSmithfield1,373WrexhamLABLAB26944516414594014924
WrexhamStansty1,638WrexhamCONCON453453314657470181,105
WrexhamWynnstay1,157WrexhamLABLAB1515288293518012781
WrexhamCartrefle1,542WrexhamLABLAB3184561751511300161,039
WrexhamGresford East and West2,333WrexhamCONCON908400644880460281,574
WrexhamGwersyllt East and South3,594WrexhamCONLAB9491,02244991191530372,423
WrexhamHolt2,474WrexhamCONCON818604304775680261,668
WrexhamRhosnesni2,822WrexhamCONCON800780476995810311,903
WrexhamWhitegate1,591WrexhamLABLAB236621174552850161,072
 Total75,502 CONLAB20,13520,7311,6232,1242,4362,981085350,883

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Wrexham if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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