Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine: Seat Details

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:Andrew Campbell Bowie  (CON)
County/Area:Grampian (Scotland)
Electorate:72,994
Turnout:67.1%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
CON17,42835.6%35.6%
SNP13,98728.6%28.6%
LAB6,39713.1%13.1%
LIB6,34213.0%13.0%
Reform3,4977.1%7.1%
Green1,0322.1%2.1%
OTH2750.6%0.7%
CON Majority3,4417.0%7.0%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
100%
SNP
0%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%
Reform
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2024CONLABLAB
Party Winner 2019CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2017CONSNPCON
Economic Position7° Left23° Left
National Position12° Glo15° Glo
Social Position13° Lib13° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %40%38%52%
Average Age49.848.649.5
Good Education44%36%49%
Employed74%64%58%
Homeowner75%62%63%
Car owner90%69%77%
Married58%45%45%
Ethnic White98%96%83%
Christian49%54%50%
ABC1 Class59%50%56%
Gross Household Income£38,239£31,060£42,397
Deprivation47%60%52%
Average House Price£250,536£174,274£313,528

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine ranks #540 for "Leave", #465 for "Economic Right Position", #539 for "National Position" and #602 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine.

Aberdeenshire West and KincardineActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred
Winner
AberdeenshireAboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside8,835CONCON
AberdeenshireBanchory and Mid Deeside8,712CONCON
AberdeenshireEast Garioch2,247SNPSNP
AberdeenshireHuntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford3,749CONCON
AberdeenshireMearns11,688CONCON
AberdeenshireNorth Kincardine11,903SNPSNP
AberdeenshireStonehaven and Lower Deeside10,927CONCON
AberdeenshireWest Garioch3,150CONCON
AberdeenshireWesthill and District11,784CONCON
 Total72,995CONCON

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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