Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine: Overview

 Prediction: SNP gain from CON 

MP at 2019: Andrew Bowie  (CON)
County/Area: Grampian (Scotland)
Electorate: 72,640
Turnout: 73.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON22,75242.7%38.0%
SNP21,90941.1%49.6%
LIB6,25311.7%6.5%
LAB2,4314.6%5.0%
OTH00.0%0.8%
CON Majority8431.6%Pred Maj 11.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
26%
SNP
74%
LIB
0%
LAB
0%
OTH
0%

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2017CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position7° Left23° Left
National Position12° Glo15° Glo
Social Position14° Lib13° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %40%38%52%
British Identity30%27%29%
Good Health59%52%48%
UK Born94%93%87%
Good Education44%36%39%
Good Job55%49%51%
High SEC68%55%51%
Average Age49.848.648.3
ABC1 Class59%50%54%

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine ranks #542 for "Leave", #450 for "Right", #541 for "National" and #601 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine.

Aberdeenshire West and KincardineActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AberdeenshireAboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside8,700CONSNP2,451232411003,2430516,388
AberdeenshireBanchory and Mid Deeside8,614CONSNP2,769208422002,8760516,326
AberdeenshireEast Garioch2,408CONSNP62265127009400151,769
AberdeenshireHuntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford3,616CONSNP1,001160162001,3120202,655
AberdeenshireMearns11,427CONSNP3,383410399004,1450578,394
AberdeenshireNorth Kincardine11,974SNPSNP2,578726654004,7600758,793
AberdeenshireStonehaven and Lower Deeside10,881CONSNP3,058492523003,8540647,991
AberdeenshireWest Garioch3,273CONSNP891105138001,2510182,403
AberdeenshireWesthill and District11,746CONSNP3,535291636004,0890748,625
 Total72,639CONSNP20,2882,6893,4720026,470042553,344

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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