Antrim East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Antrim East: Overview

 Predicted winner: DUP 
 Acual winner: DUP 

MP at 2019: Sammy Wilson  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 64,830
Turnout: 57.5%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
DUP16,87145.3%49.0%
Alliance10,16527.3%19.9%
UUP5,47514.7%12.9%
SF2,1205.7%6.3%
OTH1,0432.8%6.9%
SDLP9022.4%5.0%
Green6851.8%0.0%
DUP Majority6,70618.0%Pred Maj 29.0%
Chance of
winning
DUP
99%
Alliance
1%
UUP
0%
SF
0%
OTH
0%
SDLP
0%
Green
0%

Antrim East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Antrim East constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %55%44%52%
British Identity57%40%29%
Good Health46%48%48%
UK Born96%93%88%
Good Education38%36%39%
Good Job50%47%51%
High SEC60%57%51%
Average Age48.347.248.4
ABC1 Class49%45%53%

Antrim East ranks #287 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Antrim East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Antrim East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Antrim East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Antrim East at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Antrim East. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Antrim EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey20146463474223094198
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff2014262034212400244
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill201413922479149052151
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown2014339032423400162
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2014282037317300297
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRostulla2014429038234800230
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan2014602861590511239
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin201413928263220496311
Mid and East AntrimBallycarry and Glynn2014379036314201184
Mid and East AntrimBoneybefore2014207027214700355
Mid and East AntrimBurleigh Hill2014269034214500192
Mid and East AntrimCairncastle2014233107213156073226
Mid and East AntrimCarnlough and Glenarm201411916394590325210
Mid and East AntrimCastle2014132029319100563
Mid and East AntrimCraigyhill2014210413191380117419
Mid and East AntrimCurran and Inver20143240318139078259
Mid and East AntrimGardenmore2014180602341320108323
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry20142395459642058215
Mid and East AntrimGortalee2014271037618400241
Mid and East AntrimGreenisland2014305035023500172
Mid and East AntrimIslandmagee2014311032218501224
Mid and East AntrimKilroot2014250039319100552
Mid and East AntrimKilwaughter20144530422160039231
Mid and East AntrimLove Lane2014175029114500448
Mid and East AntrimSlemish20142175555242064212
Mid and East AntrimSunnylands2014298050517100412
Mid and East AntrimThe Maidens2014204442841040134355
Mid and East AntrimVictoria2014174033717300534
Mid and East AntrimWhitehead South2014295030526008279
Mid and East AntrimWoodburn2014350043116200208

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Antrim EastEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,48163233832881653025851
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff7848310217106816012452
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill366194114544906210
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown2,2662332853440922430331,302
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,5912483369739326520401,489
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRostulla3,2023114073461931590461,840
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan2,12610745453301302460411,223
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin83848181841151191016483
Mid and East AntrimBallycarry and Glynn2,3872753063432624470361,372
Mid and East AntrimBoneybefore2,1821852759234622470351,254
Mid and East AntrimBurleigh Hill2,1022212656530421400321,209
Mid and East AntrimCairncastle2,3671974855341528780411,360
Mid and East AntrimCarnlough and Glenarm2,27413348502313312390421,308
Mid and East AntrimCastle2,6241343073547927590441,508
Mid and East AntrimCraigyhill2,92019244787434331390501,679
Mid and East AntrimCurran and Inver2,4932913362333726840381,432
Mid and East AntrimGardenmore2,43215741618393291180431,399
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry19413366202403111
Mid and East AntrimGortalee2,3772163064037524460361,367
Mid and East AntrimGreenisland2,3542342957041923430341,352
Mid and East AntrimIslandmagee2,3292603057237323460351,339
Mid and East AntrimKilroot3,0832293887048431690511,772
Mid and East AntrimKilwaughter2,9103533776338829580451,673
Mid and East AntrimLove Lane2,3561602867537424540401,355
Mid and East AntrimSlemish25115386272704144
Mid and East AntrimSunnylands3,0762553890742631630491,769
Mid and East AntrimThe Maidens2,64018642697367311490461,518
Mid and East AntrimVictoria2,7101543178944827630461,558
Mid and East AntrimWhitehead South2,5612323261448225500381,473
Mid and East AntrimWoodburn2,5542713270135225490381,468
 Total64,8305,47590116,87510,1676862,12101,04537,270

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Antrim East

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Antrim East.

Antrim EastPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,48178635490076086852
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff78489252790025035453
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill36622121460013018211
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown2,26625484769017501191,302
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,59126988925018301241,490
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRostulla3,2023431251,0880110801761,841
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan2,126123886330127101071,223
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin838543425300100041482
Mid and East AntrimBallycarry and Glynn2,38729276825017301061,373
Mid and East AntrimBoneybefore2,18220375793017401081,254
Mid and East AntrimBurleigh Hill2,1022376874200640971,208
Mid and East AntrimCairncastle2,3672191067940111101291,360
Mid and East AntrimCarnlough and Glenarm2,274150936890126501111,309
Mid and East AntrimCastle2,624159961,011019701451,509
Mid and East AntrimCraigyhill2,9202151051,0410117401431,679
Mid and East AntrimCurran and Inver2,493309808210111101101,432
Mid and East AntrimGardenmore2,432178968480114901271,399
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry1941467800607111
Mid and East AntrimGortalee2,37723682857017601161,368
Mid and East AntrimGreenisland2,35425687811017601221,353
Mid and East AntrimIslandmagee2,32927982788017601141,340
Mid and East AntrimKilroot3,0832541051,1510110701541,772
Mid and East AntrimKilwaughter2,91037491990018901281,673
Mid and East AntrimLove Lane2,35618080892018401191,356
Mid and East AntrimSlemish251167102009010144
Mid and East AntrimSunnylands3,076277981,156019701401,769
Mid and East AntrimThe Maidens2,640206949140117901251,519
Mid and East AntrimVictoria2,710177931,048019801411,558
Mid and East AntrimWhitehead South2,56125798890018801391,473
Mid and East AntrimWoodburn2,55429081906017701131,468
 Total64,8306,0102,31822,7890232,93103,21037,281

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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