Antrim East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Antrim East: Overview

Prediction: DUP hold

MP at 2019: Sammy Wilson (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 64,830
Turnout: 57.5%

	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
DUP	16,871	45.3%	45.4%
Alliance	10,165	27.3%	27.3%
UUP	5,475	14.7%	14.8%
SF	2,120	5.7%	5.8%
OTH	1,043	2.8%	2.6%
SDLP	902	2.4%	2.5%
Green	685	1.8%	1.5%
DUP Majority	6,706	18.0%	Pred Maj 18.1%

Chance of
winning

DUP

88%

Alliance

11%

UUP

OTH

SDLP

Green

Antrim East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Antrim East constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator	Seat	Northern Ireland	All UK
Party Winner 2019	DUP	DUP	CON
Party Winner 2017	DUP	DUP	CON
Party Winner 2015	DUP	DUP	CON
EU Leave %	55%	44%	52%
British Identity	57%	40%	29%
Good Health	46%	48%	48%
UK Born	96%	93%	87%
Good Education	38%	36%	39%
Good Job	50%	47%	51%
High SEC	60%	57%	51%
Average Age	48.3	47.2	48.3
ABC1 Class	49%	46%	53%

Antrim East ranks #283 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

Topic	Cat 1	Cat 2	Cat 3	Cat 4	Cat 5
EU Leave %	Very Remain	Remain	Balanced	Leave	Very Leave
Census	Very Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Indicator	Census Question	Definition / Included Census Categories
Party Winner	–	Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %	–	EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British Identity	National Identity (KS202)	Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good Health	Health (KS301)	Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK Born	Country of Birth (QS203)	Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good Education	Highest level of Qualification (QS501)	Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good Job	Occupation (QS606)	Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SEC	NS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)	National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average Age	Age (QS103)	Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 Class	Approximated Social Grade (QS611)	Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Antrim East: Map

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Antrim East

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Antrim East.

Antrim East			Actual	Predicted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2019	GE19 Winner	Pred Winner	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Abbey	1,471	DUP	DUP	46	14	418	246	7	102	0	14	847
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ballyduff	781	DUP	DUP	49	9	242	124	5	9	0	11	449
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Carnmoney Hill	308	DUP	DUP	14	3	98	43	2	14	0	3	177
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Jordanstown	2,383	DUP	DUP	174	24	623	503	12	28	0	6	1,370
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Monkstown	2,354	DUP	DUP	123	28	704	422	14	28	0	35	1,354
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Rostulla	2,700	DUP	DUP	167	27	672	633	14	32	0	7	1,552
Causeway Coast and Glens	Lurigethan	2,169	DUP	DUP	56	134	494	233	14	270	0	46	1,247
Causeway Coast and Glens	Torr Head and Rathlin	836	DUP	DUP	34	50	191	87	6	98	0	17	483
Mid and East Antrim	Ballycarry and Glynn	2,707	DUP	DUP	300	32	657	462	43	34	0	27	1,555
Mid and East Antrim	Boneybefore	2,392	DUP	DUP	311	30	624	321	15	32	0	40	1,373
Mid and East Antrim	Burleigh Hill	2,187	DUP	DUP	281	29	601	265	14	31	0	38	1,259
Mid and East Antrim	Cairncastle	2,656	DUP	DUP	111	31	683	495	15	149	0	42	1,526
Mid and East Antrim	Carnlough and Glenarm	2,336	DUP	DUP	64	30	557	330	15	296	0	50	1,342
Mid and East Antrim	Castle	2,678	DUP	DUP	275	37	704	415	18	41	0	50	1,540
Mid and East Antrim	Craigyhill	2,590	DUP	DUP	89	30	711	415	15	185	0	45	1,490
Mid and East Antrim	Curran and Inver	2,498	DUP	DUP	248	31	601	456	30	32	0	38	1,436
Mid and East Antrim	Gardenmore	2,425	DUP	DUP	80	28	621	422	14	189	0	41	1,395
Mid and East Antrim	Glenwhirry	146	DUP	DUP	11	2	49	14	1	5	0	3	85
Mid and East Antrim	Gortalee	2,400	DUP	DUP	291	31	660	306	15	34	0	42	1,379
Mid and East Antrim	Greenisland	2,453	DUP	DUP	304	31	597	391	15	33	0	40	1,411
Mid and East Antrim	Islandmagee	2,357	DUP	DUP	201	30	525	473	63	31	0	32	1,355
Mid and East Antrim	Kilroot	3,019	DUP	DUP	375	40	834	373	19	42	0	52	1,735
Mid and East Antrim	Kilwaughter	3,105	DUP	DUP	369	35	781	506	29	38	0	28	1,786
Mid and East Antrim	Love Lane	2,422	DUP	DUP	291	32	659	316	16	35	0	43	1,392
Mid and East Antrim	Slemish	217	DUP	DUP	15	3	72	21	2	8	0	4	125
Mid and East Antrim	Sunnylands	2,659	DUP	DUP	292	38	789	298	18	42	0	51	1,528
Mid and East Antrim	The Maidens	2,493	DUP	DUP	91	29	691	352	14	212	0	42	1,431
Mid and East Antrim	Victoria	2,888	DUP	DUP	318	39	794	397	19	42	0	52	1,661
Mid and East Antrim	Whitehead South	2,536	Alliance	Alliance	187	32	515	592	69	34	0	29	1,458
Mid and East Antrim	Woodburn	2,660	DUP	DUP	362	34	759	277	17	37	0	45	1,531
	Total	64,826	DUP	DUP	5,529	943	16,926	10,188	550	2,163	0	973	37,272

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.