MP at 2019: | Sammy Wilson (DUP) |
County/Area: | Antrim (Northern Ireland) |
Electorate: | 64,830 |
Turnout: | 57.5% |
Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Share | Pred Votes |
---|---|---|---|
DUP | 16,871 | 45.3% | 45.4% |
Alliance | 10,165 | 27.3% | 27.3% |
UUP | 5,475 | 14.7% | 14.8% |
SF | 2,120 | 5.7% | 5.8% |
OTH | 1,043 | 2.8% | 2.6% |
SDLP | 902 | 2.4% | 2.5% |
Green | 685 | 1.8% | 1.5% |
DUP Majority | 6,706 | 18.0% | 18.1% Pred Maj |
Chance of winning | |||
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OTH |
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Green |
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The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Antrim East constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.
The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.
Indicator | Seat | Northern Ireland | All UK |
---|---|---|---|
Party Winner 2019 | DUP | DUP | CON |
Party Winner 2017 | DUP | DUP | CON |
Party Winner 2015 | DUP | DUP | CON |
EU Leave % | 55% | 44% | 52% |
British Identity | 57% | 40% | 29% |
Good Health | 46% | 48% | 48% |
UK Born | 96% | 93% | 87% |
Good Education | 38% | 36% | 39% |
Good Job | 50% | 47% | 51% |
High SEC | 60% | 57% | 51% |
Average Age | 48.3 | 47.2 | 48.3 |
ABC1 Class | 49% | 46% | 53% |
Antrim East ranks #283 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.
The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.
Topic | Cat 1 | Cat 2 | Cat 3 | Cat 4 | Cat 5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
EU Leave % | Very Remain | Remain | Balanced | Leave | Very Leave |
Census | Very Low | Low | Medium | High | Very High |
Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:
Indicator | Census Question | Definition / Included Census Categories |
---|---|---|
Party Winner | – | Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus |
EU Leave % | – | EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate |
British Identity | National Identity (KS202) | Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British |
Good Health | Health (KS301) | Those answering 'Very Good Health' |
UK Born | Country of Birth (QS203) | Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other |
Good Education | Highest level of Qualification (QS501) | Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent) |
Good Job | Occupation (QS606) | Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers) |
High SEC | NS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609) | National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed). |
Average Age | Age (QS103) | Average age of adults (18 years and above) |
ABC1 Class | Approximated Social Grade (QS611) | Approximated social grades A, B and C1 |
This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Antrim East.
Antrim East | Actual | Predicted Results | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
District | Ward | Electorate 2019 | GE19 Winner | Pred Winner | UUP Votes | SDLP Votes | DUP Votes | Alliance Votes | Green Votes | SF Votes | MIN Votes | OTH Votes | Total Votes |
Antrim and Newtownabbey | Abbey | 1,471 | DUP | DUP | 46 | 14 | 418 | 246 | 7 | 102 | 0 | 14 | 847 |
Antrim and Newtownabbey | Ballyduff | 781 | DUP | DUP | 49 | 9 | 242 | 124 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 449 |
Antrim and Newtownabbey | Carnmoney Hill | 308 | DUP | DUP | 14 | 3 | 98 | 43 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 177 |
Antrim and Newtownabbey | Jordanstown | 2,383 | DUP | DUP | 174 | 24 | 623 | 503 | 12 | 28 | 0 | 6 | 1,370 |
Antrim and Newtownabbey | Monkstown | 2,354 | DUP | DUP | 123 | 28 | 704 | 422 | 14 | 28 | 0 | 35 | 1,354 |
Antrim and Newtownabbey | Rostulla | 2,700 | DUP | DUP | 167 | 27 | 672 | 633 | 14 | 32 | 0 | 7 | 1,552 |
Causeway Coast and Glens | Lurigethan | 2,169 | DUP | DUP | 56 | 134 | 494 | 233 | 14 | 270 | 0 | 46 | 1,247 |
Causeway Coast and Glens | Torr Head and Rathlin | 836 | DUP | DUP | 34 | 50 | 191 | 87 | 6 | 98 | 0 | 17 | 483 |
Mid and East Antrim | Ballycarry and Glynn | 2,707 | DUP | DUP | 300 | 32 | 657 | 462 | 43 | 34 | 0 | 27 | 1,555 |
Mid and East Antrim | Boneybefore | 2,392 | DUP | DUP | 311 | 30 | 624 | 321 | 15 | 32 | 0 | 40 | 1,373 |
Mid and East Antrim | Burleigh Hill | 2,187 | DUP | DUP | 281 | 29 | 601 | 265 | 14 | 31 | 0 | 38 | 1,259 |
Mid and East Antrim | Cairncastle | 2,656 | DUP | DUP | 111 | 31 | 683 | 495 | 15 | 149 | 0 | 42 | 1,526 |
Mid and East Antrim | Carnlough and Glenarm | 2,336 | DUP | DUP | 64 | 30 | 557 | 330 | 15 | 296 | 0 | 50 | 1,342 |
Mid and East Antrim | Castle | 2,678 | DUP | DUP | 275 | 37 | 704 | 415 | 18 | 41 | 0 | 50 | 1,540 |
Mid and East Antrim | Craigyhill | 2,590 | DUP | DUP | 89 | 30 | 711 | 415 | 15 | 185 | 0 | 45 | 1,490 |
Mid and East Antrim | Curran and Inver | 2,498 | DUP | DUP | 248 | 31 | 601 | 456 | 30 | 32 | 0 | 38 | 1,436 |
Mid and East Antrim | Gardenmore | 2,425 | DUP | DUP | 80 | 28 | 621 | 422 | 14 | 189 | 0 | 41 | 1,395 |
Mid and East Antrim | Glenwhirry | 146 | DUP | DUP | 11 | 2 | 49 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 85 |
Mid and East Antrim | Gortalee | 2,400 | DUP | DUP | 291 | 31 | 660 | 306 | 15 | 34 | 0 | 42 | 1,379 |
Mid and East Antrim | Greenisland | 2,453 | DUP | DUP | 304 | 31 | 597 | 391 | 15 | 33 | 0 | 40 | 1,411 |
Mid and East Antrim | Islandmagee | 2,357 | DUP | DUP | 201 | 30 | 525 | 473 | 63 | 31 | 0 | 32 | 1,355 |
Mid and East Antrim | Kilroot | 3,019 | DUP | DUP | 375 | 40 | 834 | 373 | 19 | 42 | 0 | 52 | 1,735 |
Mid and East Antrim | Kilwaughter | 3,105 | DUP | DUP | 369 | 35 | 781 | 506 | 29 | 38 | 0 | 28 | 1,786 |
Mid and East Antrim | Love Lane | 2,422 | DUP | DUP | 291 | 32 | 659 | 316 | 16 | 35 | 0 | 43 | 1,392 |
Mid and East Antrim | Slemish | 217 | DUP | DUP | 15 | 3 | 72 | 21 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 125 |
Mid and East Antrim | Sunnylands | 2,659 | DUP | DUP | 292 | 38 | 789 | 298 | 18 | 42 | 0 | 51 | 1,528 |
Mid and East Antrim | The Maidens | 2,493 | DUP | DUP | 91 | 29 | 691 | 352 | 14 | 212 | 0 | 42 | 1,431 |
Mid and East Antrim | Victoria | 2,888 | DUP | DUP | 318 | 39 | 794 | 397 | 19 | 42 | 0 | 52 | 1,661 |
Mid and East Antrim | Whitehead South | 2,536 | Alliance | Alliance | 187 | 32 | 515 | 592 | 69 | 34 | 0 | 29 | 1,458 |
Mid and East Antrim | Woodburn | 2,660 | DUP | DUP | 362 | 34 | 759 | 277 | 17 | 37 | 0 | 45 | 1,531 |
Total | 64,826 | DUP | DUP | 5,529 | 943 | 16,926 | 10,188 | 550 | 2,163 | 0 | 973 | 37,272 |
Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.
© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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