Arfon: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Dwyfor Meirionnydd, or click here to find another new seat.

Arfon: Overview

Prediction: Plaid hold

MP at 2019:Hywel Williams  (Plaid)
County/Area:Gwynedd (Wales)
Electorate:42,215
Turnout:68.9%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
Plaid13,13445.2%50.0%
LAB10,35335.6%31.7%
CON4,42815.2%5.9%
Reform1,1594.0%9.8%
LIB00.0%1.1%
Green00.0%1.1%
OTH00.0%0.4%
Plaid Majority2,7819.6%18.2%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
Plaid
87%
LAB
13%
CON
0%
Reform
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Arfon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Arfon constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2017PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2015PlaidLABCON
Economic Position19° Left8° Left
National Position17° Glo
Social Position14° Lib2° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %37%53%52%
Average Age48.351.149.5
Good Education58%49%49%
Employed53%53%58%
Homeowner62%67%63%
Car owner80%81%77%
Married37%44%45%
Ethnic White94%94%83%
Christian46%47%50%
ABC1 Class56%52%56%
Gross Household Income£35,755£36,386£42,397
Deprivation49%54%52%
Average House Price£165,535£193,404£313,528

Arfon ranks #575 for "Leave", #591 for "Economic Right Position", #578 for "National Position" and #605 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Arfon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Arfon

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Arfon.

ArfonActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
GwyneddArllechwedd1,508PlaidPlaid
GwyneddBethel a'r Felinheli (Bethel and Port Dinorwic)2,975PlaidPlaid
GwyneddBontnewydd1,128PlaidPlaid
GwyneddCadnant1,442LABLAB
GwyneddCanol Bangor (Bangor Central)3,068PlaidPlaid
GwyneddCanol Bethesda (Bethesda Central)1,128PlaidPlaid
GwyneddCanol Tref Caernarfon (Caernarfon Town Central)1,223PlaidPlaid
GwyneddClynnog248PlaidPlaid
GwyneddCwm-y-Glo1,085PlaidPlaid
GwyneddDeiniolen1,548PlaidPlaid
GwyneddDewi1,228PlaidPlaid
GwyneddDwyrain Bangor (Bangor East)3,074LABPlaid
GwyneddGerlan1,245PlaidPlaid
GwyneddGlyder983PlaidPlaid
GwyneddGroeslon1,343PlaidPlaid
GwyneddHendre1,107PlaidPlaid
GwyneddLlanberis1,664PlaidPlaid
GwyneddLlanllyfni1,463PlaidPlaid
GwyneddLlanrug1,433PlaidPlaid
GwyneddLlanwnda1,061PlaidPlaid
GwyneddMenai1,626PlaidPlaid
GwyneddPeblig1,438PlaidPlaid
GwyneddPenisa'r-waun1,141PlaidPlaid
GwyneddPenygroes1,489PlaidPlaid
GwyneddRachub1,070PlaidPlaid
GwyneddTregarth and Mynydd Llandegai1,703PlaidPlaid
GwyneddTryfan1,144PlaidPlaid
GwyneddWaunfawr1,126PlaidPlaid
GwyneddY Faenol (Vaynol)1,518PlaidPlaid
 Total42,209PlaidPlaid

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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