Arfon: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Arfon: Overview

 Prediction: Plaid hold 

MP at 2019: Hywel Williams  (Plaid)
County/Area: Gwynedd (Wales)
Electorate: 42,215
Turnout: 68.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
Plaid13,13445.2%45.2%
LAB10,35335.6%37.0%
CON4,42815.2%14.3%
Brexit1,1594.0%2.6%
Green00.0%0.3%
OTH00.0%0.7%
Plaid Majority2,7819.6%Pred Maj 8.1%
Chance of
winning
Plaid
60%
LAB
39%
CON
0%
Brexit
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Arfon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Arfon constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2017PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2015PlaidLABCON
Economic Position19° Left8° Left
National Position17° Glo
Social Position14° Lib2° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %37%53%52%
British Identity21%26%29%
Good Health53%47%48%
UK Born93%94%87%
Good Education46%37%39%
Good Job48%46%51%
High SEC45%46%51%
Average Age46.349.548.3
ABC1 Class52%48%54%

Arfon ranks #575 for "Leave", #591 for "Right", #578 for "National" and #605 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Arfon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Arfon

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Arfon.

ArfonActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddArllechwedd1,048PlaidPlaid120216017236205722
GwyneddBethel1,068LABLAB129386018219505735
GwyneddBontnewydd891PlaidPlaid111222019225405613
GwyneddCadnant1,570LABLAB1175570293368071,081
GwyneddCwm-y-Glo778PlaidPlaid79196012124503536
GwyneddDeiniol658LABLAB52208010117903453
GwyneddDeiniolen1,394PlaidPlaid106324023249906960
GwyneddDewi1,276PlaidPlaid108322022241805877
GwyneddGarth542PlaidPlaid4713408118002372
GwyneddGerlan1,712PlaidPlaid1224350323580071,179
GwyneddGlyder1,261PlaidPlaid114284020244305868
GwyneddGroeslon1,372PlaidPlaid184336027338708945
GwyneddHendre959PlaidPlaid75281016228204660
GwyneddHirael1,049LABLAB116357018222405722
GwyneddLlanberis1,635PlaidPlaid1593960283533071,126
GwyneddLlanllyfni959PlaidPlaid80243018231304660
GwyneddLlanrug1,423PlaidPlaid143304025349807980
GwyneddLlanwnda1,525PlaidPlaid1923540303464081,051
GwyneddMarchog1,658LABLAB1365520363407081,142
GwyneddMenai (Bangor)1,038PlaidPlaid93253015235004717
GwyneddMenai (Caernarfon)1,847PlaidPlaid2283960314604091,272
GwyneddOgwen1,716PlaidPlaid1484400333550081,182
GwyneddPeblig (Caernarfon)1,511PlaidPlaid954400313466071,042
GwyneddPenisarwaun1,402PlaidPlaid140319025247306965
GwyneddPentir1,928PlaidPlaid2144080293665091,328
GwyneddPenygroes1,406PlaidPlaid122330026248306969
GwyneddSeiont2,306LABLAB24765504756230121,589
GwyneddTalysarn1,423PlaidPlaid146386027341107980
GwyneddTregarth and Mynydd Llandygai1,716PlaidPlaid1573650293622071,183
GwyneddWaunfawr1,334PlaidPlaid147295023244506918
GwyneddY Felinheli1,811PlaidPlaid2203770273612081,247
 Total42,216PlaidPlaid4,14710,77107517713,135019329,074

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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