Arfon: Seat Details

Arfon: Overview

Prediction: Plaid hold

MP at 2019:Hywel Williams  (Plaid)
County/Area:Gwynedd (Wales)
Electorate:42,215
Turnout:68.9%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
Plaid13,13445.2%50.0%
LAB10,35335.6%34.9%
CON4,42815.2%7.8%
Reform1,1594.0%5.2%
LIB00.0%0.9%
Green00.0%1.3%
Plaid Majority2,7819.6%15.1%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
Plaid
82%
LAB
18%
CON
0%
Reform
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Arfon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Arfon constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2017PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2015PlaidLABCON
Economic Position19° Left8° Left
National Position17° Glo
Social Position14° Lib2° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %37%53%52%
Average Age48.351.149.5
Good Education58%49%49%
Employed53%53%58%
Homeowner62%67%63%
Car owner80%81%77%
Married37%44%45%
Ethnic White94%94%83%
Christian46%47%50%
ABC1 Class56%52%56%
Gross Household Income£35,755£36,386£42,397
Deprivation49%54%52%
Average House Price£165,535£193,404£313,528

Arfon ranks #575 for "Leave", #591 for "Economic Right Position", #578 for "National Position" and #605 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Arfon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Arfon

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Arfon.

ArfonActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddArllechwedd1,508PlaidPlaid107333136315605001,136
GwyneddBethel a'r Felinheli (Bethel and Port Dinorwic)2,975PlaidPlaid21178922116271,088002,253
GwyneddBontnewydd1,128PlaidPlaid90279849942400859
GwyneddCadnant1,442LABLAB6047895712430001,046
GwyneddCanol Bangor (Bangor Central)3,068PlaidPlaid1218331689411,198002,298
GwyneddCanol Bethesda (Bethesda Central)1,128PlaidPlaid502658431045400830
GwyneddCanol Tref Caernarfon (Caernarfon Town Central)1,223PlaidPlaid663368491042100890
GwyneddClynnog248PlaidPlaid304921228900184
GwyneddCwm-y-Glo1,085PlaidPlaid663108451137500815
GwyneddDeiniolen1,548PlaidPlaid6938395912626001,158
GwyneddDewi1,228PlaidPlaid662977491247800909
GwyneddDwyrain Bangor (Bangor East)3,074LABLAB1169671610934912002,154
GwyneddGerlan1,245PlaidPlaid5630010451252100944
GwyneddGlyder983PlaidPlaid662136361042300754
GwyneddGroeslon1,343PlaidPlaid112373116413429001,002
GwyneddHendre1,107PlaidPlaid673278501033000792
GwyneddLlanberis1,664PlaidPlaid94452116915591001,232
GwyneddLlanllyfni1,463PlaidPlaid6439285711531001,063
GwyneddLlanrug1,433PlaidPlaid9333495611596001,099
GwyneddLlanwnda1,061PlaidPlaid96275947937400810
GwyneddMenai1,626PlaidPlaid146388136513633001,258
GwyneddPeblig1,438PlaidPlaid4540675211508001,029
GwyneddPenisa'r-waun1,141PlaidPlaid71268845948600887
GwyneddPenygroes1,489PlaidPlaid7334795710614001,110
GwyneddRachub1,070PlaidPlaid502518401043800797
GwyneddTregarth and Mynydd Llandegai1,703PlaidPlaid105420167120662001,294
GwyneddTryfan1,144PlaidPlaid743028511039900844
GwyneddWaunfawr1,126PlaidPlaid73272845945800865
GwyneddY Faenol (Vaynol)1,518PlaidPlaid111333115815632001,160
 Total42,209PlaidPlaid2,44810,9722861,64839315,7250031,472

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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