Arfon: Seat Details

Arfon: Overview

Prediction: Plaid hold

MP at 2019:Hywel Williams  (Plaid)
County/Area:Gwynedd (Wales)
Electorate:42,215
Turnout:68.9%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
Plaid13,13445.2%45.2%
LAB10,35335.6%36.7%
CON4,42815.2%10.3%
Reform1,1594.0%4.2%
Green00.0%2.5%
OTH00.0%1.1%
Plaid Majority2,7819.6%8.4%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
Plaid
64%
LAB
36%
CON
0%
Reform
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Arfon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Arfon constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2017PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2015PlaidLABCON
Economic Position19° Left8° Left
National Position17° Glo
Social Position14° Lib2° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %37%53%52%
British Identity21%26%29%
Good Health53%47%48%
UK Born93%94%87%
Good Education46%37%39%
Good Job48%46%51%
High SEC45%46%51%
Average Age46.349.548.3
ABC1 Class52%48%54%
Average House Price£165,535£194,381£309,875

Arfon ranks #575 for "Leave", #591 for "Right", #578 for "National" and #605 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Arfon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Arfon

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Arfon.

ArfonActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddArllechwedd1,080PlaidPlaid892230292137209743
GwyneddBethel1,014LABLAB893650292118509698
GwyneddBontnewydd856PlaidPlaid782120301924408591
GwyneddCadnant1,498LABLAB8152604519351081,030
GwyneddCwm-y-Glo745PlaidPlaid551860191323406513
GwyneddDeiniol910LABLAB522860231224805626
GwyneddDeiniolen1,448PlaidPlaid803330401951808998
GwyneddDewi1,288PlaidPlaid793220371942108886
GwyneddGarth550PlaidPlaid35135015818204379
GwyneddGerlan1,678PlaidPlaid8742105021568091,156
GwyneddGlyder1,244PlaidPlaid812780321943608854
GwyneddGroeslon1,360PlaidPlaid13433204530382013936
GwyneddHendre930PlaidPlaid532710261327205640
GwyneddHirael1,055LABLAB853570312022509727
GwyneddLlanberis1,596PlaidPlaid112383045275200111,098
GwyneddLlanllyfni906PlaidPlaid562270281329506625
GwyneddLlanrug1,382PlaidPlaid10129204124483010951
GwyneddLlanwnda1,491PlaidPlaid136344048324530141,027
GwyneddMarchog1,563LABLAB93515054223830101,077
GwyneddMenai (Bangor)1,532PlaidPlaid99371035245170101,056
GwyneddMenai (Caernarfon)1,706PlaidPlaid153365049375560161,176
GwyneddOgwen1,679PlaidPlaid105426052255370111,156
GwyneddPeblig (Caernarfon)1,586PlaidPlaid7245505217488071,091
GwyneddPenisarwaun1,351PlaidPlaid9830503823455010929
GwyneddPentir2,137PlaidPlaid171454054417350171,472
GwyneddPenygroes1,355PlaidPlaid853130412046509933
GwyneddSeiont2,210LABLAB173621073415960181,522
GwyneddTalysarn1,385PlaidPlaid10437204325399011954
GwyneddTregarth and Mynydd Llandygai1,611PlaidPlaid107340044265820111,110
GwyneddWaunfawr1,285PlaidPlaid10328203625428011885
GwyneddY Felinheli1,784PlaidPlaid157370045386020161,228
 Total42,215PlaidPlaid3,00310,68201,22971413,132030729,067

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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