Arfon: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Arfon: Overview

 Predicted winner: LAB 
 Acual winner: Plaid 

MP at 2019: Hywel Williams  (Plaid)
County/Area: Gwynedd (Wales)
Electorate: 42,215
Turnout: 68.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
Plaid13,13445.2%35.2%
LAB10,35335.6%39.9%
CON4,42815.2%18.4%
Brexit1,1594.0%6.5%
Plaid Majority2,7819.6%Pred Maj 4.7%
Chance of
winning
Plaid
37%
LAB
58%
CON
5%
Brexit
0%

Arfon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Arfon constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2017PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2015PlaidLABCON
Economic Position19° Left9° Left
National Position17° Glo
Social Position14° Lib2° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %37%53%52%
British Identity21%26%29%
Good Health53%47%48%
UK Born93%95%88%
Good Education46%36%39%
Good Job48%46%51%
High SEC45%46%51%
Average Age46.349.648.5
ABC1 Class52%47%54%

Arfon ranks #575 for "Leave", #591 for "Right", #578 for "National" and #605 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Arfon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Arfon: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Arfon

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Arfon at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Arfon. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

ArfonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
OTH
Votes
GwyneddArllechwedd201200000-10
GwyneddBethel201203750002520
GwyneddBontnewydd201200000309161
GwyneddCadnant201202680003970
GwyneddCwm-y-Glo20120-100000
GwyneddDeiniol20120665200620
GwyneddDeiniolen201200000205357
GwyneddDewi2012015435002540
GwyneddGarth20120000081114
GwyneddGerlan201200000375175
GwyneddGlyder201200285003170
GwyneddGroeslon201200000133634
GwyneddHendre201201360001530
GwyneddHirael2012010723000227
GwyneddLlanberis2012000000-1
GwyneddLlanllyfni201200000269159
GwyneddLlanrug201200000-10
GwyneddLlanwnda201200000277459
GwyneddMarchog201203610000688
GwyneddMenai (Bangor)201201602740029743
GwyneddMenai (Caernarfon)201200000519414
GwyneddOgwen201200000-10
GwyneddPeblig (Caernarfon)20120108000287242
GwyneddPenisarwaun201200000-10
GwyneddPentir20126014732003320
GwyneddPenygroes201200000401255
GwyneddSeiont201203040003111,274
GwyneddTalysarn201200000139492
GwyneddTregarth and Mynydd Llandygai201204480004420
GwyneddWaunfawr201200000388290
GwyneddY Felinheli201200000-10

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

ArfonEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddArllechwedd967115172028035000665
GwyneddBethel992129246027028100683
GwyneddBontnewydd80197148028027900552
GwyneddCadnant1,436125383042043900989
GwyneddCwm-y-Glo68984194020017700475
GwyneddDeiniol1,33799488023031100921
GwyneddDeiniolen1,343138309044043500926
GwyneddDewi1,320127351039039200909
GwyneddGarth69562183016021900480
GwyneddGerlan1,6591443530460600001,143
GwyneddGlyder1,210125271030040700833
GwyneddGroeslon1,202179259040035000828
GwyneddHendre1,03882322022028900715
GwyneddHirael1,160106392026027400798
GwyneddLlanberis1,421175337044042300979
GwyneddLlanllyfni88187187027030500606
GwyneddLlanrug1,341148259040047800925
GwyneddLlanwnda1,409186273044046700970
GwyneddMarchog1,7931546010470433001,235
GwyneddMenai (Bangor)2,8702579140510754001,976
GwyneddMenai (Caernarfon)1,5311842930410536001,054
GwyneddOgwen1,6421553520520571001,130
GwyneddPeblig (Caernarfon)1,6631244620440516001,146
GwyneddPenisarwaun1,192126222034043900821
GwyneddPentir1,7142123700470551001,180
GwyneddPenygroes1,252130262042042800862
GwyneddSeiont2,0772435370650585001,430
GwyneddTalysarn1,309161318042038100902
GwyneddTregarth and Mynydd Llandygai1,5411643710390488001,062
GwyneddWaunfawr1,153132216033041300794
GwyneddY Felinheli1,5771763070400563001,086
 Total42,2154,42610,35201,163013,1340029,075

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Arfon

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Arfon.

ArfonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddArllechwedd967136201044028400665
GwyneddBethel992151276044021300684
GwyneddBontnewydd801115172042022400553
GwyneddCadnant1,436157426066034000989
GwyneddCwm-y-Glo68999215032013000476
GwyneddDeiniol1,337128528046021900921
GwyneddDeiniolen1,343168349067034200926
GwyneddDewi1,320156390061030100908
GwyneddGarth69577204028017100480
GwyneddGerlan1,6591814020740486001,143
GwyneddGlyder1,210152307051032400834
GwyneddGroeslon1,202206295060026700828
GwyneddHendre1,038105353040021800716
GwyneddHirael1,160132426046019400798
GwyneddLlanberis1,421206379068032500978
GwyneddLlanllyfni881106213042024400605
GwyneddLlanrug1,341178299063038600926
GwyneddLlanwnda1,409217315068037000970
GwyneddMarchog1,7931946540770310001,235
GwyneddMenai (Bangor)2,87032099901000557001,976
GwyneddMenai (Caernarfon)1,5312183390670431001,055
GwyneddOgwen1,6421914010800458001,130
GwyneddPeblig (Caernarfon)1,6631615120720401001,146
GwyneddPenisarwaun1,192152257054035700820
GwyneddPentir1,7142504210760433001,180
GwyneddPenygroes1,252158299063034200862
GwyneddSeiont2,07728959901000442001,430
GwyneddTalysarn1,309190357064029100902
GwyneddTregarth and Mynydd Llandygai1,5411984170650382001,062
GwyneddWaunfawr1,153157250053033400794
GwyneddY Felinheli1,5772113540670454001,086
 Total42,2155,35911,60901,880010,2300029,078

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (07-Jan-2020 16:36, Py3L, sc3017)