Argyll and Bute: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Argyll and Bute: Overview

 Predicted winner: SNP 
 Acual winner: SNP 

MP at 2019: Brendan O'Hara  (SNP)
County/Area: Argyll and Bute (Scotland)
Electorate: 66,525
Turnout: 72.2%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SNP21,04043.8%39.7%
CON16,93035.2%33.1%
LIB6,83214.2%20.3%
LAB3,2486.8%7.0%
SNP Majority4,1108.6%Pred Maj 6.6%
Chance of
winning
SNP
60%
CON
33%
LIB
7%
LAB
0%

Argyll and Bute : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Argyll and Bute constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position20° Left23° Left
National Position12° Glo15° Glo
Social Position12° Lib13° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %39%38%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health52%52%48%
UK Born95%93%88%
Good Education38%36%39%
Good Job48%49%51%
High SEC62%55%51%
Average Age52.548.748.5
ABC1 Class49%50%54%

Argyll and Bute ranks #550 for "Leave", #592 for "Right", #533 for "National" and #583 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Argyll and Bute: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Argyll and Bute: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Argyll and Bute

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Argyll and Bute at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Argyll and Bute. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Argyll and ButeActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
OTH
Votes
Argyll and ButeCowal201234300009231,646
Argyll and ButeDunoon201294296105006631,209
Argyll and ButeHelensburgh Central20126730665006871,260
Argyll and ButeHelensburgh and Lomond South201255801,195005840
Argyll and ButeIsle of Bute2012216351000968752
Argyll and ButeKintyre and the Islands2012553225540073610603
Argyll and ButeLomond North20125443760004061,571
Argyll and ButeMid Argyll2012174174312007121,520
Argyll and ButeOban North and Lorn20123320188001,1171,994
Argyll and ButeOban South and the Isles20121910184001,9461,044
Argyll and ButeSouth Kintyre20121,133035100618368

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Argyll and ButeEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Argyll and ButeCowal5,4861,404205454001,900003,963
Argyll and ButeDunoon5,8831,284477492001,997004,250
Argyll and ButeHelensburgh Central7,2731,9313091,050001,964005,254
Argyll and ButeHelensburgh and Lomond South5,5791,5481531,044001,285004,030
Argyll and ButeIsle of Bute4,9181,024379366001,783003,552
Argyll and ButeKintyre and the Islands4,8091,251235621001,366003,473
Argyll and ButeLomond North6,5921,949418554001,840004,761
Argyll and ButeMid Argyll5,7061,422247595001,857004,121
Argyll and ButeOban North and Lorn7,3291,857271608002,558005,294
Argyll and ButeOban South and the Isles7,7441,549321567003,157005,594
Argyll and ButeSouth Kintyre5,2061,711233481001,335003,760
 Total66,52516,9303,2486,8320021,0420048,052

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Argyll and Bute

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Argyll and Bute.

Argyll and ButePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Argyll and ButeCowal5,4861,320213694001,737003,964
Argyll and ButeDunoon5,8831,193485749001,822004,249
Argyll and ButeHelensburgh Central7,2731,8193191,368001,748005,254
Argyll and ButeHelensburgh and Lomond South5,5791,4621611,288001,119004,030
Argyll and ButeIsle of Bute4,918948386581001,637003,552
Argyll and ButeKintyre and the Islands4,8091,177242831001,223003,473
Argyll and ButeLomond North6,5921,848427842001,644004,761
Argyll and ButeMid Argyll5,7061,334255844001,687004,120
Argyll and ButeOban North and Lorn7,3291,744281928002,340005,293
Argyll and ButeOban South and the Isles7,7441,430332905002,927005,594
Argyll and ButeSouth Kintyre5,2061,631240708001,180003,759
 Total66,52515,9063,3419,7380019,0640048,049

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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