Argyll and Bute: Seat Details

Argyll and Bute: Overview

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:Brendan O'Hara  (SNP)
County/Area:Argyll and Bute (Scotland)
Electorate:66,525
Turnout:72.2%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
SNP21,04043.8%51.2%
CON16,93035.2%30.1%
LIB6,83214.2%7.0%
LAB3,2486.8%9.4%
Green00.0%2.0%
OTH00.0%0.3%
SNP Majority4,1108.6%21.1%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
SNP
90%
CON
10%
LIB
0%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Argyll and Bute : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Argyll and Bute constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position20° Left23° Left
National Position12° Glo15° Glo
Social Position12° Lib13° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %39%38%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health52%52%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education38%36%39%
Good Job48%49%51%
High SEC62%55%51%
Average Age52.548.648.3
ABC1 Class49%50%54%

Argyll and Bute ranks #550 for "Leave", #592 for "Right", #533 for "National" and #583 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Argyll and Bute: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Argyll and Bute

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Argyll and Bute.

Argyll and ButeActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Argyll and ButeCowal5,714SNPSNP1,2423533650962,0560164,128
Argyll and ButeDunoon5,480SNPSNP9085332520752,1740133,955
Argyll and ButeHelensburgh Central7,330CONSNP1,97940648101252,2820215,294
Argyll and ButeHelensburgh and Lomond South5,445CONCON1,6093503330891,5360153,932
Argyll and ButeIsle of Bute4,677SNPSNP8633231690571,9580103,380
Argyll and ButeKintyre and the Islands5,138SNPSNP1,0083773350871,8880153,710
Argyll and ButeLomond North5,979CONSNP1,6263822060712,0220124,319
Argyll and ButeMid Argyll5,969SNPSNP1,1753882380762,4220134,312
Argyll and ButeOban North and Lorn7,842SNPSNP1,6433913110993,2030175,664
Argyll and ButeOban South and the Isles7,863SNPSNP1,3806712960973,2180165,678
Argyll and ButeSouth Kintyre5,089SNPSNP1,0083423760911,8420153,674
 Total66,526SNPSNP14,4414,5163,362096324,601016348,046

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (31-Dec-2020 17:12, Py3L, sc2383)