Ashton under Lyne: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Ashton under Lyne, or click here to find another new seat.

Ashton under Lyne: Overview

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:Angela Rayner  (LAB)
County/Area:Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:67,978
Turnout:56.8%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB18,54448.1%60.4%
CON14,28137.0%17.3%
Reform3,1518.2%12.3%
LIB1,3953.6%2.6%
Green1,2083.1%5.9%
OTH00.0%1.5%
LAB Majority4,26311.1%43.1%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LAB
100%
CON
0%
Reform
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Ashton under Lyne : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ashton under Lyne constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position8° Left4° Left
National Position9° Nat1° Nat
Social Position7° Con2° Con
TribeSomewheres
EU Leave %64%54%52%
Average Age49.149.749.5
Good Education40%49%49%
Employed56%55%58%
Homeowner60%64%63%
Car owner71%76%77%
Married40%43%45%
Ethnic White80%86%83%
Christian51%55%50%
ABC1 Class45%53%56%
Gross Household Income£34,092£38,646£42,397
Deprivation59%53%52%
Average House Price£163,863£200,217£313,528

Ashton under Lyne ranks #81 for "Leave", #472 for "Economic Right Position", #167 for "National Position" and #79 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Ashton under Lyne: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ashton under Lyne

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ashton under Lyne.

Ashton under LyneActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
OldhamFailsworth East7,706LABLAB7582,3391375472490734,103
OldhamFailsworth West7,638LABLAB6662,1281255942580853,856
TamesideAshton Hurst8,325CONLAB8912,295904562230524,007
TamesideAshton St Michael's8,989LABLAB6162,760874252340554,177
TamesideAshton Waterloo9,011LABLAB7802,5931014922560554,277
TamesideAudenshaw588LABLAB581718421705301
TamesideDroylsden East8,279LABLAB7822,3831094982480574,077
TamesideDroylsden West8,543LABLAB7252,4221226102660774,222
TamesideSt Peter's8,900LABLAB3632,580523381660423,541
 Total67,979LABLAB5,63919,6718314,0021,917050132,561

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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