Belfast North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Belfast North: Overview

 Prediction: SF hold 

MP at 2019: John Finucane  (SF)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 72,225
Turnout: 67.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SF23,07847.1%47.1%
DUP21,13543.1%43.1%
Alliance4,8249.8%9.8%
SF Majority1,9434.0%Pred Maj 4.0%
Chance of
winning
SF
57%
DUP
43%
Alliance
0%

Belfast North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Belfast North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %50%44%52%
British Identity41%40%29%
Good Health42%48%48%
UK Born94%93%87%
Good Education29%36%39%
Good Job46%47%51%
High SEC47%57%51%
Average Age47.747.248.3
ABC1 Class40%46%53%

Belfast North ranks #417 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Belfast North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Belfast North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Belfast North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Belfast North at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Belfast North. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Belfast NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey20146463474223094198
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry201424681326191012917
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill201430031461185011080
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney201426933376146010342
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill201413922479149052151
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge201415821413812003771
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe201418318818813203674
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley201424271387212022093
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown2014205120261156024618
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill20141050478103038228
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole20141111496108037230
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley201435853171070294153
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse2014847437140044189
BelfastArdoyne201432141451001,033371
BelfastBallysillan20141848648870274437
BelfastBellevue20141253233411190595223
BelfastCavehill2014247350303167034764
BelfastChichester Park20141144133172020588202
BelfastCliftonville201442203259680861351
BelfastDuncairn20141891717252070399515
BelfastForth River201412515658210264609
BelfastFortwilliam20141832234371440376227
BelfastInnisfayle20142762724921810351171
BelfastLegoniel201411693468860680419
BelfastNew Lodge20143204139260898346
BelfastShankill20141835901230241787
BelfastWater Works201419202244420957396
BelfastWoodvale20141165712450186677

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Belfast NorthEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,0730040287024000729
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry1,0530035394026800715
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill386001423308700262
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney21200781804900145
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,664006631290338001,130
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge2,096004591570807001,423
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,214005031710829001,503
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,554008492330652001,734
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,32700369119041300901
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,209009201520428001,500
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,276009461580441001,545
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,298006741650721001,560
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse2,088008361610420001,417
BelfastArdoyne3,8210066119001,743002,594
BelfastBallysillan3,521001,4042070779002,390
BelfastBellevue3,6250084323701,381002,461
BelfastCavehill3,1040083125401,022002,107
BelfastChichester Park3,8550091429001,413002,617
BelfastCliftonville3,8400074821101,649002,608
BelfastDuncairn4,634001,60833601,203003,147
BelfastForth River7810031838017300529
BelfastFortwilliam3,3390099124101,035002,267
BelfastInnisfayle3,661001,14828001,057002,485
BelfastLegoniel4,0060097922901,512002,720
BelfastNew Lodge3,4740062017401,565002,359
BelfastShankill1,97900831960416001,343
BelfastWater Works4,0030075020401,764002,718
BelfastWoodvale3,132001,2941600673002,127
 Total72,2250021,1344,824023,0780049,036

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Belfast North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Belfast North.

Belfast NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,0730040287024000729
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry1,0530035394026800715
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill386001423308700262
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney21200781804900145
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,664006631290338001,130
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge2,096004591570807001,423
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,214005031710829001,503
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,554008492330652001,734
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,32700369119041300901
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,209009201520428001,500
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,276009461580441001,545
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,298006741650721001,560
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse2,088008361610420001,417
BelfastArdoyne3,8210066119001,743002,594
BelfastBallysillan3,521001,4042070779002,390
BelfastBellevue3,6250084323701,381002,461
BelfastCavehill3,1040083125401,022002,107
BelfastChichester Park3,8550091429001,413002,617
BelfastCliftonville3,8400074821101,649002,608
BelfastDuncairn4,634001,60833601,203003,147
BelfastForth River7810031838017300529
BelfastFortwilliam3,3390099124101,035002,267
BelfastInnisfayle3,661001,14828001,057002,485
BelfastLegoniel4,0060097922901,512002,720
BelfastNew Lodge3,4740062017401,565002,359
BelfastShankill1,97900831960416001,343
BelfastWater Works4,0030075020401,764002,718
BelfastWoodvale3,132001,2941600673002,127
 Total72,2250021,1344,824023,0780049,036

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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