Belfast North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Belfast North: Overview

 Prediction: SF hold 

MP at 2019: John Finucane  (SF)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 72,225
Turnout: 67.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SF23,07847.1%47.1%
DUP21,13543.1%43.1%
Alliance4,8249.8%9.8%
SF Majority1,9434.0%Pred Maj 4.0%
Chance of
winning
SF
57%
DUP
43%
Alliance
0%

Belfast North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Belfast North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %50%44%52%
British Identity41%40%29%
Good Health42%48%48%
UK Born94%93%87%
Good Education29%36%39%
Good Job46%47%51%
High SEC47%57%51%
Average Age47.747.248.3
ABC1 Class40%46%53%

Belfast North ranks #418 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Belfast North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Belfast North

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Belfast North.

Belfast NorthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey948DUPDUP00321125019700643
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry1,198DUPDUP00373150029100814
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill443DUPDUP001554709800300
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney218DUPDUP00762205000148
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,840DUPDUP006721970380001,249
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge2,307SFSF004941560917001,567
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview36DUPDUP00125080025
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,361SFSF005231790901001,603
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,345DUPDUP007153170560001,592
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,365DUPDUP00394147038500926
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,218DUPDUP008351950476001,506
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,229DUPDUP008491900474001,513
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,339SFSF006742030711001,588
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse2,161DUPDUP007862360445001,467
BelfastArdoyne3,645SFSF006566701,752002,475
BelfastBallysillan3,426DUPDUP001,3562010769002,326
BelfastBellevue3,578SFSF0091020101,319002,430
BelfastCavehill3,373SFSF0090034501,045002,290
BelfastChichester Park3,919SFSF0096632601,369002,661
BelfastCliftonville3,799SFSF0076212901,688002,579
BelfastDuncairn4,450DUPDUP001,52335301,145003,021
BelfastForth River644DUPDUP0027913014500437
BelfastFortwilliam3,335DUPDUP001,0812540930002,265
BelfastInnisfayle3,852DUPDUP001,22932501,061002,615
BelfastLegoniel3,862SFSF001,06816901,384002,621
BelfastNew Lodge3,394SFSF006306501,610002,305
BelfastShankill1,861DUPDUP00823360405001,264
BelfastWater Works4,140SFSF008079301,911002,811
BelfastWoodvale2,937DUPDUP001,265770652001,994
 Total72,223SFSF0021,1344,823023,0780049,035

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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