Belfast North: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Belfast North, or click here to find another new seat.

Belfast North: Overview

Prediction: SF hold

MP at 2019:John Finucane  (SF)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:72,225
Turnout:67.9%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
SF23,07847.1%47.1%
DUP21,13543.1%43.1%
Alliance4,8249.8%9.8%
SF Majority1,9434.0%4.0%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
SF
58%
DUP
42%
Alliance
0%

Belfast North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Belfast North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %50%44%52%
British Identity33%32%52%
Average Age48.549.349.5
Good Education42%48%49%
Employed51%56%58%
Homeowner54%69%63%
Car owner72%87%77%
Married34%46%45%
Ethnic White95%97%83%
Christian78%81%50%
ABC1 Class41%46%55%
Average House Price£119,997£148,218£309,210

Belfast North ranks #418 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Belfast North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Belfast North

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Belfast North.

Belfast NorthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey938DUPDUP00315133018900637
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry1,206DUPDUP00371162028600819
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill435DUPDUP001515109400296
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney218DUPDUP00762404800148
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,844DUPDUP006682150370001,253
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge2,330SFSF004991570927001,583
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview56DUPDUP001880120038
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,366SFSF005201910895001,606
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,278DUPDUP006873290530001,546
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,331DUPDUP00380156036800904
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,268DUPDUP008462200473001,539
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,283DUPDUP008632150472001,550
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,289SFSF006522200682001,554
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse2,207DUPDUP007952620441001,498
BelfastArdoyne3,677SFSF006713901,786002,496
BelfastBallysillan3,381DUPDUP001,3451780772002,295
BelfastBellevue3,555SFSF0091317201,328002,413
BelfastCavehill3,403SFSF0089738001,034002,311
BelfastChichester Park3,908SFSF0095136101,342002,654
BelfastCliftonville3,827SFSF007877401,737002,598
BelfastDuncairn4,250DUPDUP001,44436801,074002,886
BelfastForth River636DUPDUP002787014700432
BelfastFortwilliam3,327DUPDUP001,0722700916002,258
BelfastInnisfayle3,928DUPDUP001,24136801,058002,667
BelfastLegoniel3,820SFSF001,07810701,409002,594
BelfastNew Lodge3,413SFSF006433701,637002,317
BelfastShankill1,899DUPDUP00845210423001,289
BelfastWater Works4,140SFSF008215301,937002,811
BelfastWoodvale3,011DUPDUP001,308450691002,044
 Total72,224SFSF0021,1354,823023,0780049,036

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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