Belfast South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Belfast South: Overview

 Prediction: SDLP hold 

MP at 2019: Claire Hanna  (SDLP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 69,984
Turnout: 67.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SDLP27,07957.2%57.2%
DUP11,67824.7%24.7%
Alliance6,78614.3%14.3%
UUP1,2592.7%2.7%
OTH5501.2%1.1%
SF00.0%0.0%
SDLP Majority15,40132.5%Pred Maj 32.5%
Chance of
winning
SDLP
98%
DUP
2%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%
SF
0%

Belfast South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Belfast South constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SDLPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SDLPDUPCON
EU Leave %31%44%52%
British Identity34%40%29%
Good Health52%48%48%
UK Born88%93%87%
Good Education56%36%39%
Good Job62%47%51%
High SEC64%57%51%
Average Age43.647.248.3
ABC1 Class67%46%53%

Belfast South ranks #613 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Belfast South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Belfast South

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Belfast South.

Belfast SouthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir3,231SDLPSDLP651,112771214000232,185
BelfastBlackstaff4,190SDLPSDLP951,530985191010342,836
BelfastCentral4,704SDLPSDLP192,099733278010533,183
BelfastCregagh1,620DUPSDLP35591334123000121,095
BelfastFalls4SFSDLP021000003
BelfastFinaghy3,463SDLPSDLP841,330740177000102,341
BelfastHillfoot2,056DUPSDLP43722508101000151,389
BelfastMalone3,616SDLPSDLP541,49636253100042,447
BelfastMerok46DUPSDLP116122000031
BelfastMusgrave3,558SDLPSDLP541,456660211000272,408
BelfastOrmeau3,941SDLPSDLP151,615343653010402,667
BelfastRavenhill3,341SDLPSDLP671,225434509000232,258
BelfastRosetta3,854SDLPSDLP721,537392590000152,606
BelfastStranmillis4,151SDLPSDLP811,705649334010382,808
BelfastUpper Malone3,555SDLPSDLP751,257746305000212,404
BelfastWindsor4,533SDLPSDLP521,760758456010403,067
BelfastWoodstock3,543SDLPSDLP771,282610400000272,396
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,472SDLPSDLP56929428239000201,672
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill2,599SDLPSDLP601,005390280000221,757
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East2,092SDLPSDLP48792432126000171,415
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,444SDLPSDLP58955398221000211,653
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally2,370SDLPSDLP56910343276000191,604
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken2,483SDLPSDLP51970335307000161,679
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda2,119SDLPSDLP47785320263000171,432
 Total69,985SDLPSDLP1,26527,08111,6846,78705051447,336

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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