Belfast South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Belfast South: Overview

 Prediction: SDLP hold 

MP at 2019: Claire Hanna  (SDLP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 69,984
Turnout: 67.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SDLP27,07957.2%57.2%
DUP11,67824.7%24.7%
Alliance6,78614.3%14.3%
UUP1,2592.7%2.7%
OTH5501.2%1.1%
SF00.0%0.0%
SDLP Majority15,40132.5%Pred Maj 32.5%
Chance of
winning
SDLP
98%
DUP
2%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%
SF
0%

Belfast South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Belfast South constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SDLPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SDLPDUPCON
EU Leave %31%44%52%
British Identity34%40%29%
Good Health52%48%48%
UK Born88%93%87%
Good Education56%36%39%
Good Job62%47%51%
High SEC64%57%51%
Average Age43.647.248.3
ABC1 Class67%46%53%

Belfast South ranks #613 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Belfast South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Belfast South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Belfast South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Belfast South at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Belfast South. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Belfast SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
BelfastBelvoir201418624860725230163386
BelfastBlackstaff2014205754111878987378
BelfastCentral201483386227326173608550
BelfastCregagh20141657056637661159305
BelfastFinaghy201417940235918226369160
BelfastHillfoot2014366866843635678152
BelfastMalone20141666431683529627238
BelfastMerok2014276187432933756338
BelfastMusgrave201412850729318528551179
BelfastOrmeau20146231493333151167214
BelfastRavenhill201414023339855012560147
BelfastRosetta201416142831257113725472
BelfastStranmillis2014234349211300148232196
BelfastUpper Malone201422031449126543170244
BelfastWindsor2014182376325467211232412
BelfastWoodstock20142402737126643161419
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2014167273313297099136
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill20141142602262580116113
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East20141552243312350140166
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West20141222722522580155133
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally20141242732312770100107
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken20141143272183050143106
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda2014106211229260050118

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Belfast SouthEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir2,89559913791178000191,960
BelfastBlackstaff4,397931,4121,179260000312,975
BelfastCentral7,037953,231878478000794,761
BelfastCregagh1,445264333671430009978
BelfastFinaghy2,841571,232476133000251,923
BelfastHillfoot1,73831488501145000101,175
BelfastMalone2,942521,402282233000231,992
BelfastMerok0000000000
BelfastMusgrave3,173521,528392142000322,146
BelfastOrmeau4,099531,726424535000352,773
BelfastRavenhill3,03049927522532000202,050
BelfastRosetta3,549591,364421530000272,401
BelfastStranmillis5,1331052,235633456000453,474
BelfastUpper Malone2,965581,048676203000202,005
BelfastWindsor6,7781262,671933800000564,586
BelfastWoodstock3,823811,251868360000282,588
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,34044821429275000141,583
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,97837750304235000131,339
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,83936645384167000121,244
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,16941835348228000151,467
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally2,02437758307255000131,370
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken2,01636804260251000141,365
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,77332605303249000101,199
 Total69,9841,25927,07911,6786,78800055047,354

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Belfast South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Belfast South.

Belfast SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir2,89559913791178000181,959
BelfastBlackstaff4,397941,4121,180260000292,975
BelfastCentral7,037963,232879478010744,760
BelfastCregagh1,445264333671430008977
BelfastFinaghy2,841571,232476133000231,921
BelfastHillfoot1,7383148850114500091,174
BelfastMalone2,942521,402282233000211,990
BelfastMerok0000000000
BelfastMusgrave3,173531,528393142000302,146
BelfastOrmeau4,099541,727425535010332,775
BelfastRavenhill3,03049927522532000192,049
BelfastRosetta3,549591,364421530000252,399
BelfastStranmillis5,1331062,236634456010423,475
BelfastUpper Malone2,965581,048676203000192,004
BelfastWindsor6,7781272,672934800010524,586
BelfastWoodstock3,823811,251868360000262,586
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,34044821429275000131,582
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,97837750304235000121,338
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,83936645384167000111,243
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,16941835348228000141,466
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally2,02437758307255000121,369
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken2,01636804260251000131,364
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,7733260530324900091,198
 Total69,9841,26527,08311,6846,78804051247,336

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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