Blaenau Gwent: Seat Details

Blaenau Gwent: Overview

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:Nick Smith  (LAB)
County/Area:Gwent (Wales)
Electorate:50,739
Turnout:59.6%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB14,86249.2%56.5%
Reform6,21520.6%14.1%
CON5,74919.0%11.6%
Plaid1,7225.7%10.8%
LIB1,2854.3%2.6%
Green3861.3%4.3%
LAB Majority8,64728.6%42.4%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LAB
100%
Reform
0%
CON
0%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Blaenau Gwent : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Blaenau Gwent constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position21° Left8° Left
National Position6° Nat
Social Position1° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %62%53%52%
Average Age50.851.149.5
Good Education37%49%49%
Employed52%53%58%
Homeowner61%67%63%
Car owner78%81%77%
Married41%44%45%
Ethnic White98%94%83%
Christian39%47%50%
ABC1 Class40%52%56%
Gross Household Income£29,712£36,386£42,397
Deprivation61%54%52%
Average House Price£111,626£193,404£313,528

Blaenau Gwent ranks #117 for "Leave", #603 for "Economic Right Position", #234 for "National Position" and #433 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Blaenau Gwent: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Blaenau Gwent

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Blaenau Gwent.

Blaenau GwentActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Blaenau GwentAbertillery and Six Bells4,901LABLAB3431,49474403123387002,824
Blaenau GwentBeaufort4,612LABLAB4121,46981421143313002,839
Blaenau GwentBlaina3,463LABLAB2411,1335029188226002,029
Blaenau GwentBrynmawr3,936LABLAB3191,1736334795315002,312
Blaenau GwentCwm3,231LABLAB1891,0035524674239001,806
Blaenau GwentCwmtillery3,419LABLAB2141,1294827382216001,962
Blaenau GwentEbbw Vale North3,263LABLAB2001,0844626580198001,873
Blaenau GwentEbbw Vale South2,984LABLAB1871,0044323375168001,710
Blaenau GwentGeorgetown3,067LABLAB2191,0845024684183001,866
Blaenau GwentLlanhilleth3,379LABLAB1811,1215226975159001,857
Blaenau GwentNantyglo3,273LABLAB2101,1304626779177001,909
Blaenau GwentRassau and Garnlydan3,026LABLAB2271,0184326680179001,813
Blaenau GwentSirhowy4,208LABLAB2711,49763346110243002,530
Blaenau GwentTredegar3,978LABLAB2241,4225330998215002,321
 Total50,740LABLAB3,43716,7617674,1821,2863,2180029,651

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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