Blaenau Gwent: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Blaenau Gwent: Overview

 Predicted winner: LAB 
 Acual winner: LAB 

MP at 2019: Nick Smith  (LAB)
County/Area: Gwent (Wales)
Electorate: 50,736
Turnout: 59.6%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB14,86249.2%46.9%
Brexit6,21520.6%9.8%
CON5,74919.0%23.8%
Plaid1,7225.7%13.6%
LIB1,2854.3%3.3%
Green3861.3%2.5%
LAB Majority8,64728.6%Pred Maj 23.1%
Chance of
winning
LAB
85%
Brexit
1%
CON
12%
Plaid
2%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Blaenau Gwent : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Blaenau Gwent constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position21° Left9° Left
National Position6° Nat
Social Position1° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %62%53%52%
British Identity21%26%29%
Good Health42%47%48%
UK Born98%95%88%
Good Education25%36%39%
Good Job36%46%51%
High SEC32%46%51%
Average Age49.249.648.5
ABC1 Class32%47%54%

Blaenau Gwent ranks #117 for "Leave", #603 for "Right", #234 for "National" and #433 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Blaenau Gwent: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Blaenau Gwent: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Blaenau Gwent

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Blaenau Gwent at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Blaenau Gwent. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Blaenau GwentActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
OTH
Votes
Blaenau GwentAbertillery201201,05400001,770
Blaenau GwentBadminton2012891,0870000863
Blaenau GwentBeaufort2012092800001,307
Blaenau GwentBlaina201201,47200001,633
Blaenau GwentBrynmawr201201,59400002,798
Blaenau GwentCwm201201,4360000569
Blaenau GwentCwmtillery201202,26000001,458
Blaenau GwentEbbw Vale North201202,18200001,126
Blaenau GwentEbbw Vale South201201,2420000658
Blaenau GwentGeorgetown201201,5270000242
Blaenau GwentLlanhilleth201202,13700001,329
Blaenau GwentNantyglo201202,00700001,165
Blaenau GwentRassau201201,10200001,025
Blaenau GwentSirhowy201202,78900001,059
Blaenau GwentSix Bells201206120000851
Blaenau GwentTredegar Central and West201203,383000315955

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Blaenau GwentEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Blaenau GwentAbertillery3,2034078678341127111001,906
Blaenau GwentBadminton2,265284616672811983001,350
Blaenau GwentBeaufort2,7823357697335521103001,656
Blaenau GwentBlaina3,4484039878743027119002,053
Blaenau GwentBrynmawr4,0115051,08610451631147002,389
Blaenau GwentCwm3,2163859278339224104001,915
Blaenau GwentCwmtillery3,4333771,0298341526115002,045
Blaenau GwentEbbw Vale North3,3213351,0358139424110001,979
Blaenau GwentEbbw Vale South3,000329904753602297001,787
Blaenau GwentGeorgetown2,458291715672931980001,465
Blaenau GwentLlanhilleth3,4843661,0628242727113002,077
Blaenau GwentNantyglo3,3663551,0308439825114002,006
Blaenau GwentRassau2,383276688602941884001,420
Blaenau GwentSirhowy4,1074321,25210349230136002,445
Blaenau GwentSix Bells1,848228508492361664001,101
Blaenau GwentTredegar Central and West4,4104411,38810452032142002,627
 Total50,7355,74914,8631,2856,2143881,7220030,221

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Blaenau Gwent

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Blaenau Gwent.

Blaenau GwentPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Blaenau GwentAbertillery3,2034988246520650262001,905
Blaenau GwentBadminton2,2653495865213636191001,350
Blaenau GwentBeaufort2,7824157325717741234001,656
Blaenau GwentBlaina3,4485019416821052281002,053
Blaenau GwentBrynmawr4,0116201,0338125960336002,389
Blaenau GwentCwm3,2164778846518647256001,915
Blaenau GwentCwmtillery3,4334759836519551276002,045
Blaenau GwentEbbw Vale North3,3214299916318248266001,979
Blaenau GwentEbbw Vale South3,0004158645816844238001,787
Blaenau GwentGeorgetown2,4583626825213637196001,465
Blaenau GwentLlanhilleth3,4844651,0166420452276002,077
Blaenau GwentNantyglo3,3664509856518449272002,005
Blaenau GwentRassau2,3833446564714235196001,420
Blaenau GwentSirhowy4,1075491,1978022960329002,444
Blaenau GwentSix Bells1,8482814833811829151001,100
Blaenau GwentTredegar Central and West4,4105651,3298124163347002,626
 Total50,7357,19514,1861,0012,9737544,1070030,216

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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