Blaydon: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Blaydon: Overview

 Predicted winner: LAB 
 Acual winner: LAB 

MP at 2019: Liz Twist  (LAB)
County/Area: Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate: 67,853
Turnout: 67.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB19,79443.3%44.0%
CON14,26331.2%35.4%
Brexit5,83312.8%6.6%
LIB3,7038.1%10.0%
Green1,2792.8%2.6%
OTH8091.8%1.4%
LAB Majority5,53112.1%Pred Maj 8.6%
Chance of
winning
LAB
66%
CON
34%
Brexit
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Blaydon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Blaydon constituency, the 'North East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position14° Left9° Left
National Position4° Nat4° Nat
Social Position1° Con2° Con
TribeTradition
EU Leave %56%58%52%
British Identity26%26%29%
Good Health42%44%48%
UK Born97%95%88%
Good Education35%35%39%
Good Job50%46%51%
High SEC49%44%51%
Average Age50.949.048.5
ABC1 Class50%47%54%

Blaydon ranks #279 for "Leave", #551 for "Right", #308 for "National" and #348 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Blaydon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Blaydon: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Blaydon

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Blaydon at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Blaydon. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

BlaydonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
GatesheadBirtley20155022,1201120178885
GatesheadBlaydon20157242,78630704460
GatesheadChopwell and Rowlands Gill20158742,89744605720
GatesheadCrawcrook and Greenside20153122,3543017803080
GatesheadDunston Hill and Whickham East20154691,6821,6596172040
GatesheadLamesley20156412,430200872168132
GatesheadRyton, Crookhill and Stella20154992,10395094327065
GatesheadWhickham North20153711,4511,7915451170
GatesheadWhickham South and Sunniside20155311,2002,39950310941
GatesheadWinlaton and High Spen20156142,3893249912420

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

BlaydonEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GatesheadBirtley6,5121,2362,1342805391180774,384
GatesheadBlaydon7,6991,3422,6583426181380855,183
GatesheadChopwell and Rowlands Gill7,2311,3932,2953685911380844,869
GatesheadCrawcrook and Greenside6,7331,4071,9743605851280804,534
GatesheadDunston Hill and Whickham East6,8741,5791,7604546181350824,628
GatesheadLamesley6,6971,3632,0982745761180804,509
GatesheadRyton, Crookhill and Stella6,4041,4081,7473925591260794,311
GatesheadWhickham North6,6431,4681,7804265851320814,472
GatesheadWhickham South and Sunniside6,5081,5711,5155055731340834,381
GatesheadWinlaton and High Spen6,5531,4961,8323025881140794,411
 Total67,85414,26319,7933,7035,8321,281081045,682

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Blaydon

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Blaydon.

BlaydonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GatesheadBirtley6,5121,4122,1623592781100624,383
GatesheadBlaydon7,6991,5442,6894333191290695,183
GatesheadChopwell and Rowlands Gill7,2311,5862,3254553051290684,868
GatesheadCrawcrook and Greenside6,7331,5982,0044463021200654,535
GatesheadDunston Hill and Whickham East6,8741,7801,7915453191260664,627
GatesheadLamesley6,6971,5512,1273582981100654,509
GatesheadRyton, Crookhill and Stella6,4041,5911,7764742891180644,312
GatesheadWhickham North6,6431,6591,8105123021230654,471
GatesheadWhickham South and Sunniside6,5081,7591,5445892961250674,380
GatesheadWinlaton and High Spen6,5531,6871,8623883041070644,412
 Total67,85416,16720,0904,5593,0121,197065545,680

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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