Blyth Valley: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Blyth Valley: Overview

 Prediction: LAB gain from CON 

MP at 2019: Ian Levy  (CON)
County/Area: Northumberland (North East)
Electorate: 64,429
Turnout: 63.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON17,44042.7%41.4%
LAB16,72840.9%44.9%
Brexit3,3948.3%5.3%
LIB2,1515.3%3.0%
Green1,1462.8%3.5%
OTH00.0%1.8%
CON Majority7121.7%Pred Maj 3.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
42%
LAB
58%
Brexit
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Blyth Valley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Blyth Valley constituency, the 'North East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position11° Left9° Left
National Position8° Nat4° Nat
Social Position3° Con2° Con
TribeSomewheres
EU Leave %61%58%52%
British Identity27%26%29%
Good Health43%44%48%
UK Born98%95%87%
Good Education32%35%39%
Good Job47%46%51%
High SEC46%44%51%
Average Age49.748.948.3
ABC1 Class47%47%54%

Blyth Valley ranks #143 for "Leave", #499 for "Right", #180 for "National" and #277 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Blyth Valley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Blyth Valley

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Blyth Valley.

Blyth ValleyActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NorthumberlandCowpen3,172LABLAB5681,11648163740432,012
NorthumberlandCramlington East3,128LABLAB75699535110560321,984
NorthumberlandCramlington Eastfield3,958CONCON1,2509926587790362,509
NorthumberlandCramlington North4,089CONCON1,6177086981820362,593
NorthumberlandCramlington South East3,794CONLAB1,0291,03911196850472,407
NorthumberlandCramlington Village3,632CONCON1,2907576784720352,305
NorthumberlandCramlington West4,342CONCON1,4481,0455393790352,753
NorthumberlandCroft3,088LABLAB5521,12554117730371,958
NorthumberlandHartley3,948CONLAB1,0141,119123103930512,503
NorthumberlandHolywell4,039CONLAB1,1161,15643129800382,562
NorthumberlandIsabella3,136LABLAB5421,17045127700361,990
NorthumberlandKitty Brewster4,826LABLAB1,1011,484862161100633,060
NorthumberlandNewsham3,531LABLAB7071,18634188810452,241
NorthumberlandPlessey3,322CONLAB796902119141940542,106
NorthumberlandSeghill with Seaton Delaval4,739CONLAB1,2791,40555134900433,006
NorthumberlandSouth Blyth3,743CONCON1,0608381211791140622,374
NorthumberlandWensleydale3,944LABLAB7981,2941171331040542,500
 Total64,431CONLAB16,92318,3311,2452,1811,436074740,863

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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