Boston and Skegness: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Boston and Skegness: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Matt Warman  (CON)
County/Area: Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 69,265
Turnout: 60.2%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,96376.7%75.4%
LAB6,34215.2%17.2%
LIB1,9634.7%2.7%
OTH1,4283.4%4.3%
Green00.0%0.4%
CON Majority25,62161.4%Pred Maj 58.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
100%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Boston and Skegness : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Boston and Skegness constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right4° Right
National Position29° Nat7° Nat
Social Position15° Con4° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %77%59%52%
British Identity19%27%29%
Good Health39%45%48%
UK Born89%90%87%
Good Education24%37%39%
Good Job35%48%51%
High SEC36%47%51%
Average Age51.548.948.3
ABC1 Class35%50%54%

Boston and Skegness ranks #1 for "Leave", #234 for "Right", #2 for "National" and #3 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Boston and Skegness: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Boston and Skegness

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Boston and Skegness.

Boston and SkegnessActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BostonCoastal2,856CONCON1,38920046060751,716
BostonFenside1,885CONCON67234343050701,133
BostonFishtoft4,708CONCON2,2633528801101162,830
BostonFive Village3,111CONCON1,50323842060801,869
BostonKirton and Frampton4,723CONCON2,1574708001001212,838
BostonOld Leake and Wrangle2,691CONCON1,34116333050771,619
BostonSkirbeck3,613CONCON1,39859970090942,170
BostonSt Thomas'1,485CONCON7011123204045894
BostonStaniland2,209CONCON87235040050601,327
BostonStation735CONCON2671311202031443
BostonSwineshead and Holland Fen3,076CONCON1,54021533050561,849
BostonTrinity2,634CONCON1,05739256070721,584
BostonWest1,590CONCON7631142904045955
BostonWitham2,207CONCON87434246060581,326
BostonWyberton3,154CONCON1,51722162080881,896
East LindseyBurgh le Marsh2,025CONCON1,00811832040561,218
East LindseyCroft1,918CONCON97010323030531,152
East LindseyFriskney1,750CONCON84613220030521,053
East LindseyHalton Holegate402CONCON20123501011241
East LindseyIngoldmells1,654CONCON6952102403061993
East LindseyScarbrough and Seacroft6,714CONCON2,96775311801501824,035
East LindseySibsey and Stickney4,075CONCON2,07525244070702,448
East LindseySt Clement's3,866CONCON1,603537750901012,325
East LindseyWainfleet1,994CONCON92622220030261,197
East LindseyWinthorpe4,307CONCON1,832573630901112,588
 Total69,382CONCON31,4377,1651,136015001,81141,699

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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