Brecon and Radnorshire: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Brecon and Radnorshire: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Fay Jones  (CON)
County/Area: Powys (Wales)
Electorate: 55,490
Turnout: 74.5%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON21,95853.1%51.9%
LIB14,82735.9%26.7%
LAB3,9449.5%15.9%
OTH5901.4%4.4%
Green00.0%1.1%
CON Majority7,13117.3%Pred Maj 25.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
94%
LIB
5%
LAB
1%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Brecon and Radnorshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Brecon and Radnorshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position3° Right8° Left
National Position4° Nat
Social Position2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %51%53%52%
British Identity29%26%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born95%94%87%
Good Education39%37%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC47%46%51%
Average Age53.749.548.3
ABC1 Class46%48%54%

Brecon and Radnorshire ranks #378 for "Leave", #297 for "Right", #301 for "National" and #375 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Brecon and Radnorshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Brecon and Radnorshire

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Brecon and Radnorshire.

Brecon and RadnorshireActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Merthyr TydfilVaynor16LABCON6330000012
PowysAber-craf1,174CONCON4242271830100030874
PowysBeguildy1,148CONCON4821072120100044855
PowysBronllys1,050CONCON46186188090038782
PowysBuilth1,909CONCON67135431901600601,420
PowysBwlch819LIBCON27754252070020610
PowysCrickhowell2,353LIBCON78317870202000711,754
PowysCwm-twrch1,564CONCON55731024301300411,164
PowysDisserth and Trecoed1,068CONCON474104176090033796
PowysFelin-fâch1,091CONCON39673301090033812
PowysGlasbury1,864LIBCON64512455201600511,388
PowysGwernyfed1,212CONCON602931540100043902
PowysHay1,235LIBLIB3501284000110031920
PowysKnighton2,344CONCON97824142502000811,745
PowysLlanafanfawr1,162CONCON519842120100041866
PowysLlanbadarn Fawr932CONCON39698152080040694
PowysLlandrindod East / Llandrindod West966CONCON375117175080045720
PowysLlandrindod North1,546CONCON62625221401300451,150
PowysLlandrindod South1,621CONCON55219336601400821,207
PowysLlanelwedd985LIBCON33172298080025734
PowysLlangattock770CONCON28757199070025575
PowysLlangors906CONCON41965152080031675
PowysLlangunllo1,103CONCON50384177090048821
PowysLlangynidr887CONCON39163167080033662
PowysLlanwrtyd Wells1,504CONCON61514728401300611,120
PowysLlanyre999CONCON48689130090030744
PowysMaescar / Llywel1,460CONCON64412025801200511,085
PowysNantmel1,211CONCON534942100100054902
PowysOld Radnor1,356CONCON60210724101200471,009
PowysPresteigne2,220CONCON90221742001900951,653
PowysRhayader1,612LIBLIB48714651201400411,200
PowysSt David Within1,292CONCON4612511970110042962
PowysSt John2,394CONCON79649840602000611,781
PowysSt Mary2,229CONCON84431043001900561,659
PowysTalgarth1,344LIBCON41114839601100341,000
PowysTalybont-on-Usk1,606CONCON70911929701400571,196
PowysTawe-Uchaf1,778CONCON66332126701500561,322
PowysYnyscedwyn1,791CONCON66232828201500471,334
PowysYscir890CONCON41662147080030663
PowysYstradgynlais2,081CONCON69544932401800631,549
 Total55,492CONCON21,4326,57311,0230473001,81641,317

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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