Brecon and Radnorshire: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Brecon and Radnorshire: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Fay Jones  (CON)
County/Area: Powys (Wales)
Electorate: 55,490
Turnout: 74.5%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON21,95853.1%51.2%
LIB14,82735.9%24.8%
LAB3,9449.5%23.5%
OTH5901.4%0.5%
CON Majority7,13117.3%Pred Maj 26.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
85%
LIB
7%
LAB
8%
OTH
0%

Brecon and Radnorshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Brecon and Radnorshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position3° Right9° Left
National Position4° Nat
Social Position2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %51%53%52%
British Identity29%26%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born95%95%88%
Good Education39%36%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC47%46%51%
Average Age53.749.648.5
ABC1 Class46%47%54%

Brecon and Radnorshire ranks #378 for "Leave", #297 for "Right", #301 for "National" and #375 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Brecon and Radnorshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Brecon and Radnorshire: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Brecon and Radnorshire

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Brecon and Radnorshire at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Brecon and Radnorshire. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Brecon and RadnorshireActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
OTH
Votes
PowysAber-craf201203878000087
PowysBeguildy2012000000626
PowysBronllys201264059000441
PowysBuilth201200211000362
PowysBwlch20127203010000
PowysCrickhowell201200-10000
PowysCwm-twrch20120-100000
PowysDisserth and Trecoed201234602300000
PowysFelin-fâch2012194480000274
PowysGlasbury201250200000479
PowysGwernyfed2012205052000209
PowysHay2012-1000000
PowysKnighton201200274000687
PowysLlanafanfawr2012000000-1
PowysLlanbadarn Fawr2012000000-1
PowysLlandrindod East / Llandrindod West201200151000221
PowysLlandrindod North20122158821000393
PowysLlandrindod South20123560255000181
PowysLlanelwedd201200-10000
PowysLlangattock2012930140000215
PowysLlangors201200181000313
PowysLlangunllo2012000000-1
PowysLlangynidr20120087000368
PowysLlanwrtyd Wells201200210000563
PowysLlanyre2012008000543
PowysMaescar / Llywel201221200000571
PowysNantmel2012277036000362
PowysOld Radnor201200264000409
PowysPresteigne201200244000954
PowysRhayader2012912034810000
PowysSt David Within20123821848000194
PowysSt John20120778154000158
PowysSt Mary20123012653610000
PowysTalgarth201200-10000
PowysTalybont-on-Usk20122400128000331
PowysTawe-Uchaf201205060000336
PowysYnyscedwyn20120-100000
PowysYscir201200241000255
PowysYstradgynlais201203780000606

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Brecon and RadnorshireEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysAber-craf1,140406163268000012849
PowysBeguildy1,17052053286000013872
PowysBronllys1,00944436261000011752
PowysBuilth2,0627671396080000221,536
PowysBwlch7642932024900008570
PowysCrickhowell2,330828887940000251,735
PowysCwm-twrch1,6395852433750000181,221
PowysDisserth and Trecoed1,01543839268000011756
PowysFelin-fâch1,09150029272000011812
PowysGlasbury1,828862454370000181,362
PowysGwernyfed1,23056733303000013916
PowysHay1,29257166311000014962
PowysKnighton2,4239711366710000261,804
PowysLlanafanfawr1,10849829287000011825
PowysLlanbadarn Fawr91540733232000010682
PowysLlandrindod East / Llandrindod West98735092283000011736
PowysLlandrindod North1,6356551593860000181,218
PowysLlandrindod South1,615653924400000171,202
PowysLlanelwedd94837726293000010706
PowysLlangattock8053062725800009600
PowysLlangors8593332327500009640
PowysLlangunllo98044027252000010729
PowysLlangynidr8223292225200009612
PowysLlanwrtyd Wells1,497599724280000161,115
PowysLlanyre91040426238000010678
PowysMaescar / Llywel1,378615473490000151,026
PowysNantmel1,19956730284000012893
PowysOld Radnor1,26451534380000013942
PowysPresteigne2,1768991115880000231,621
PowysRhayader1,6616121354720000181,237
PowysSt David Within1,4384972353230000151,070
PowysSt John2,6738774546300000291,990
PowysSt Mary2,4988772497080000271,861
PowysTalgarth1,357495694320000151,011
PowysTalybont-on-Usk1,553671424280000161,157
PowysTawe-Uchaf1,7036282154060000181,267
PowysYnyscedwyn1,5745702153700000171,172
PowysYscir8103142126000008603
PowysYstradgynlais2,1317193744710000231,587
 Total55,48921,9593,94914,828000059141,327

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Brecon and Radnorshire

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Brecon and Radnorshire.

Brecon and RadnorshirePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysAber-craf1,14038928217400004849
PowysBeguildy1,17050317518900005872
PowysBronllys1,00942914117700004751
PowysBuilth2,062737354437000081,536
PowysBwlch76428210018600003571
PowysCrickhowell2,330794331601000091,735
PowysCwm-twrch1,639561414239000061,220
PowysDisserth and Trecoed1,01542314518400004756
PowysFelin-fâch1,09148414218200004812
PowysGlasbury1,828835235286000061,362
PowysGwernyfed1,23054916120100005916
PowysHay1,29255220120400005962
PowysKnighton2,423936388471000091,804
PowysLlanafanfawr1,10848214419500004825
PowysLlanbadarn Fawr91539412915600004683
PowysLlandrindod East / Llandrindod West98733619520100004736
PowysLlandrindod North1,635631330251000061,218
PowysLlandrindod South1,615630260306000061,202
PowysLlanelwedd94836312521500004707
PowysLlangattock80529411119100003599
PowysLlangors85932111220400003640
PowysLlangunllo98042612917100004730
PowysLlangynidr82231710818400003612
PowysLlanwrtyd Wells1,497577228304000061,115
PowysLlanyre91039112116300004679
PowysMaescar / Llywel1,378595191235000051,026
PowysNantmel1,19955015418500004893
PowysOld Radnor1,26449716527500005942
PowysPresteigne2,176867338408000081,621
PowysRhayader1,661588308335000061,237
PowysSt David Within1,438476384204000051,069
PowysSt John2,6738387334090000101,990
PowysSt Mary2,498841510501000091,861
PowysTalgarth1,357475211320000051,011
PowysTalybont-on-Usk1,553648203299000061,156
PowysTawe-Uchaf1,703603392265000061,266
PowysYnyscedwyn1,574547379240000061,172
PowysYscir81030210519300003603
PowysYstradgynlais2,131688596295000081,587
 Total55,48921,1519,73010,236000020941,326

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (07-Jan-2020 16:36, Py3L, sc3023)