Brecon and Radnorshire: Seat Details

Brecon and Radnorshire: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Fay Jones  (CON)
County/Area:Powys (Wales)
Electorate:55,490
Turnout:74.5%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON21,95853.1%46.7%
LIB14,82735.9%29.6%
LAB3,9449.5%12.5%
OTH5901.4%4.2%
Reform00.0%0.6%
Green00.0%6.4%
CON Majority7,13117.3%17.1%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
87%
LIB
12%
LAB
1%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%
Green
0%

Brecon and Radnorshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Brecon and Radnorshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position3° Right8° Left
National Position4° Nat
Social Position2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %51%53%52%
British Identity29%26%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born95%94%87%
Good Education39%37%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC47%46%51%
Average Age53.749.548.3
ABC1 Class46%48%54%
Average House Price£220,881£194,381£309,875

Brecon and Radnorshire ranks #378 for "Leave", #297 for "Right", #301 for "National" and #375 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Brecon and Radnorshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Brecon and Radnorshire

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Brecon and Radnorshire.

Brecon and RadnorshireActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Merthyr TydfilVaynor16LABCON5230100011
PowysAber-craf1,156CONCON3731952046550028861
PowysBeguildy1,148CONCON438792365550042855
PowysBronllys1,072CONCON431612145510038800
PowysBuilth1,870CONCON58630135198900561,392
PowysBwlch809LIBLIB242332664380018601
PowysCrickhowell2,437LIBLIB7181237781211600701,817
PowysCwm-twrch1,575CONCON50227427787500381,174
PowysDisserth and Trecoed1,067CONCON433771985510031795
PowysFelin-fâch1,114CONCON362463325530032830
PowysGlasbury1,922LIBLIB5927961099100501,431
PowysGwernyfed1,191CONCON546621766570040887
PowysHay1,370LIBLIB33610647476500331,021
PowysKnighton2,322CONCON8811804701111000751,727
PowysLlanafanfawr1,154CONCON471542356550039860
PowysLlanbadarn Fawr935CONCON363761714440038696
PowysLlandrindod East / Llandrindod West960CONCON336911945460044716
PowysLlandrindod North1,534CONCON56421324477300421,143
PowysLlandrindod South1,746CONCON52916443088300851,299
PowysLlanelwedd998LIBLIB296473245470023742
PowysLlangattock771CONCON257372164370024575
PowysLlangors911CONCON387421714430030677
PowysLlangunllo1,083CONCON452551965510046805
PowysLlangynidr875CONCON353401834420030652
PowysLlanwrtyd Wells1,466CONCON54410630777000571,091
PowysLlanyre989CONCON443641505470028737
PowysMaescar / Llywel1,421CONCON5738228176800481,059
PowysNantmel1,257CONCON507672446600053937
PowysOld Radnor1,391CONCON5657627676600461,036
PowysPresteigne2,199CONCON8121594621010400891,636
PowysRhayader1,607LIBLIB42310554687600381,196
PowysSt David Within1,277CONCON4082162216610039951
PowysSt John2,392CONCON7064404541111400571,782
PowysSt Mary2,219CONCON7562544751110500511,652
PowysTalgarth1,320LIBLIB3531134176630031983
PowysTalybont-on-Usk1,554CONCON6267632077400541,157
PowysTawe-Uchaf1,783CONCON59828030598500521,329
PowysYnyscedwyn1,724CONCON57027430788200421,283
PowysYscir898CONCON385411684430028669
PowysYstradgynlais1,957CONCON57937434599300561,456
 Total55,490CONCON19,3015,16412,2312652,639001,72141,321

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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