Brecon and Radnorshire: Seat Details

Brecon and Radnorshire: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Fay Jones  (CON)
County/Area:Powys (Wales)
Electorate:55,490
Turnout:74.5%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON21,95853.1%34.8%
LIB14,82735.9%18.7%
LAB3,9449.5%26.9%
OTH5901.4%0.0%
Reform00.0%12.0%
Green00.0%3.6%
Plaid00.0%3.9%
CON Majority7,13117.3%7.8%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
65%
LIB
4%
LAB
30%
OTH
0%
Reform
1%
Green
0%
Plaid
0%

Brecon and Radnorshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Brecon and Radnorshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position3° Right8° Left
National Position4° Nat
Social Position2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %51%53%52%
Average Age55.651.149.5
Good Education50%49%49%
Employed53%53%58%
Homeowner70%67%63%
Car owner88%81%77%
Married49%44%45%
Ethnic White97%94%83%
Christian53%47%50%
ABC1 Class49%52%56%
Gross Household Income£36,656£36,386£42,397
Deprivation51%54%52%
Average House Price£220,881£193,404£313,528

Brecon and Radnorshire ranks #378 for "Leave", #297 for "Economic Right Position", #301 for "National Position" and #375 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Brecon and Radnorshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Brecon and Radnorshire

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Brecon and Radnorshire.

Brecon and RadnorshireActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Merthyr TydfilVaynor16LABLAB150101008
PowysAber-Craf and Ystradgynlais3,212CONLAB59582724825683118002,127
PowysBrecon East2,904CONCON6406163282156975001,943
PowysBrecon West3,064CONLAB4748082662387691001,953
PowysBronllys and Felin-fach1,608CONCON4112572161294137001,091
PowysBuilth1,927CONLAB3644062291484857001,252
PowysCrickhowell with Cwmdu and Tretoewer2,693LIBCON6333735702026861001,907
PowysCwm-Twrch1,550CONLAB2773921211193955001,003
PowysDisserth and Trecoed with Newbridge1,639CONCON4652431531463438001,079
PowysGlasbury1,440LIBCON3562422321104131001,012
PowysGwernyfed1,241CONCON389191108108303000856
PowysHay1,244LIBLAB23224919988393100838
PowysIthon Valley1,798CONCON4782782081584043001,205
PowysKnighton with Beguildy2,896CONCON6814543602456373001,876
PowysLlanafanfawr with Garth1,311CONCON372188158111303100890
PowysLlandrindod North1,549CONLAB312339122126384300980
PowysLlandrindod South2,610CONCON5414533232106071001,658
PowysLlanelwedd1,434LIBCON325202267111333100969
PowysLlangattock and Llangynidr1,670CONCON4832422671324338001,205
PowysLlangors with Bwlch1,368CONCON356189237105343200953
PowysLlangunllo with Norton1,349CONCON395190164120293200930
PowysLlanwrtyd Wells1,339CONCON346201178118293300905
PowysLlanyre with Nantmel1,668CONCON4772521821423840001,131
PowysMaescar and Llywel1,445CONCON393223160123323300964
PowysOld Radnor1,352CONCON378181182119293200921
PowysPresteigne1,720CONCON4042772251483946001,139
PowysRhayader1,586LIBLIB2852503001183636001,025
PowysTalgarth1,346LIBLIB259215264100333300904
PowysTalybont-on-Usk1,574CONCON4552371911283837001,086
PowysTawe Fellte1,753CONLAB3484111701404050001,159
PowysYnyscedwyn1,757CONLAB3934221411404466001,206
PowysYscir with Honddu isaf and Llanddew1,419CONCON411199194117323200985
 Total55,482CONCON12,92910,0126,9634,4711,3281,4570037,160

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (19-Feb-2024 16:41, Py3L, sc3930)