Brentwood and Ongar: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Brentwood and Ongar: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Alex Burghart  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 75,253
Turnout: 70.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,30868.6%64.5%
LAB7,24313.7%17.7%
LIB7,18713.6%13.8%
Green1,6713.2%2.9%
OTH5321.0%1.1%
CON Majority29,06554.9%Pred Maj 46.8%
Chance of
winning
CON
99%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Brentwood and Ongar : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Brentwood and Ongar constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position19° Right9° Right
National Position13° Nat7° Nat
Social Position7° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %61%56%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health50%47%48%
UK Born92%89%88%
Good Education40%37%39%
Good Job64%53%51%
High SEC65%53%51%
Average Age51.149.448.5
ABC1 Class66%55%54%

Brentwood and Ongar ranks #145 for "Leave", #6 for "Right", #82 for "National" and #85 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Brentwood and Ongar: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Brentwood and Ongar: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Brentwood and Ongar

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Brentwood and Ongar at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Brentwood and Ongar. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Brentwood and OngarActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
BrentwoodBrentwood North20151,1934411,1625490128
BrentwoodBrentwood South20151,19286327157000
BrentwoodBrentwood West20151,9415641,083000
BrentwoodBrizes and Doddinghurst20151,92229830786100
BrentwoodHerongate, Ingrave and West Horndon20151,25119704570311
BrentwoodHutton Central201467511911800190
BrentwoodHutton East20151,15128818037100
BrentwoodHutton North20151,24229617300519
BrentwoodHutton South201469111202620228
BrentwoodIngatestone, Fryerning and Mountnessing20152,21350136859800
BrentwoodPilgrims Hatch20158772741,38057000
BrentwoodShenfield20151,96522393428500
BrentwoodSouth Weald20143023601270216
BrentwoodTipps Cross20151,35221604730306
BrentwoodWarley20151,49641795046400
Epping ForestChipping Ongar, Greensted and Marden Ash20151,26804285532070
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village2015597160000648
Epping ForestHigh Ongar, Willingale and The Rodings201234551003163
Epping ForestLambourne20157060030800
Epping ForestMoreton and Fyfield201234333350420
Epping ForestNorth Weald Bassett20151,45201806201760
Epping ForestPassingford20124022844000
Epping ForestShelley2015467220027800

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Brentwood and OngarEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BrentwoodBrentwood North5,2002,25866456901250413,657
BrentwoodBrentwood South4,6891,98176940501090353,299
BrentwoodBrentwood West5,7322,46574464401390414,033
BrentwoodBrizes and Doddinghurst4,7882,5003473980920313,368
BrentwoodHerongate, Ingrave and West Horndon3,0001,5602182530580222,111
BrentwoodHutton Central3,0841,5192503110670232,170
BrentwoodHutton East2,9741,4592782690660212,093
BrentwoodHutton North3,4291,6443603060770252,412
BrentwoodHutton South3,1231,5812322960670222,198
BrentwoodIngatestone, Fryerning and Mountnessing4,8272,39640345701070333,396
BrentwoodPilgrims Hatch4,8182,29647747501060353,389
BrentwoodShenfield4,3972,05234756201030293,093
BrentwoodSouth Weald1,5617991211330330121,098
BrentwoodTipps Cross3,1011,6362162500580212,181
BrentwoodWarley4,8312,14355355101170353,399
Epping ForestChipping Ongar, Greensted and Marden Ash3,2751,6102613250830252,304
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village1708714140301119
Epping ForestHigh Ongar, Willingale and The Rodings1,8259501271530420121,284
Epping ForestLambourne1,6278691191150300111,144
Epping ForestMoreton and Fyfield1,5688131001450350101,103
Epping ForestNorth Weald Bassett3,6211,8502982880870252,548
Epping ForestPassingford1,8419911081550310101,295
Epping ForestShelley1,7728492361130360131,247
 Total75,25336,3087,2427,18701,671053352,941

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Brentwood and Ongar

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Brentwood and Ongar.

Brentwood and OngarPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BrentwoodBrentwood North5,2002,10981057601160463,657
BrentwoodBrentwood South4,6891,84690141101010393,298
BrentwoodBrentwood West5,7322,30190565201290464,033
BrentwoodBrizes and Doddinghurst4,7882,3634804040850353,367
BrentwoodHerongate, Ingrave and West Horndon3,0001,4743012570540252,111
BrentwoodHutton Central3,0841,4313363150620262,170
BrentwoodHutton East2,9741,3743612730610242,093
BrentwoodHutton North3,4291,5464563110710282,412
BrentwoodHutton South3,1231,4913193000620252,197
BrentwoodIngatestone, Fryerning and Mountnessing4,8272,2585384640990373,396
BrentwoodPilgrims Hatch4,8182,1586124820980393,389
BrentwoodShenfield4,3971,9264715680960333,094
BrentwoodSouth Weald1,5617541651350310131,098
BrentwoodTipps Cross3,1011,5473022540540242,181
BrentwoodWarley4,8312,00468955801090393,399
Epping ForestChipping Ongar, Greensted and Marden Ash3,2751,5163533290770282,303
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village1708219140301119
Epping ForestHigh Ongar, Willingale and The Rodings1,8258981781550390141,284
Epping ForestLambourne1,6278221641170280121,143
Epping ForestMoreton and Fyfield1,5687681441470320111,102
Epping ForestNorth Weald Bassett3,6211,7464002930810282,548
Epping ForestPassingford1,8419381591570290121,295
Epping ForestShelley1,7727982851150330151,246
 Total75,25334,1509,3487,28701,550060052,935

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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