Brentwood and Ongar: Seat Details

Brentwood and Ongar: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:Alex Burghart  (CON)
County/Area:Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:75,352
Turnout:64.1%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
CON17,73136.7%36.7%
Reform11,75124.3%24.3%
LAB11,08222.9%22.9%
LIB5,80912.0%12.0%
Green1,7703.7%3.7%
OTH1890.4%0.4%
CON Majority5,98012.4%12.4%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
100%
Reform
0%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Brentwood and Ongar : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Brentwood and Ongar constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2024CONCONLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position19° Right9° Right
National Position13° Nat7° Nat
Social Position7° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %61%56%52%
Average Age51.550.549.5
Good Education50%48%49%
Employed60%59%58%
Homeowner74%67%63%
Car owner88%84%77%
Married49%47%45%
Ethnic White90%86%83%
Christian59%50%50%
ABC1 Class69%58%56%
Gross Household Income£50,790£45,686£42,397
Deprivation46%50%52%
Average House Price£560,234£352,365£313,528

Brentwood and Ongar ranks #144 for "Leave", #6 for "Economic Right Position", #82 for "National Position" and #81 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Brentwood and Ongar: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Brentwood and Ongar

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Brentwood and Ongar.

Brentwood and OngarActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred
Winner
BrentwoodBlackmore and Doddinghurst4,764CONCON
BrentwoodBrentwood North5,040ReformReform
BrentwoodBrentwood South4,243LABLAB
BrentwoodBrentwood West4,981CONCON
BrentwoodBrizes, Stondon Massey and South Weald4,598CONCON
BrentwoodHerongate, Ingrave and West Horndon3,550CONCON
BrentwoodHutton East4,570CONCON
BrentwoodHutton North4,632CONCON
BrentwoodHutton South5,265CONCON
BrentwoodIngatestone, Fryerning and Mountnessing5,059CONCON
BrentwoodPilgrims Hatch4,684ReformReform
BrentwoodShenfield4,277CONCON
BrentwoodWarley3,638CONCON
Epping ForestChigwell with Lambourne1,575CONCON
Epping ForestNorth Weald Bassett3,692CONCON
Epping ForestOngar5,820CONCON
Epping ForestRural East3,078CONCON
Epping ForestTheydon Bois with Passingford1,886CONCON
 Total75,352CONCON

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (19-Jun-2024 13:44, Py3L, sc333)