Brentwood and Ongar: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Brentwood and Ongar: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Alex Burghart  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 75,253
Turnout: 70.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,30868.6%67.3%
LAB7,24313.7%18.6%
LIB7,18713.6%6.8%
Green1,6713.2%4.1%
OTH5321.0%3.3%
CON Majority29,06554.9%Pred Maj 48.8%
Chance of
winning
CON
100%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Brentwood and Ongar : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Brentwood and Ongar constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position19° Right9° Right
National Position13° Nat7° Nat
Social Position7° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %61%56%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health50%47%48%
UK Born92%89%87%
Good Education40%37%39%
Good Job64%52%51%
High SEC65%53%51%
Average Age51.149.348.3
ABC1 Class66%55%54%

Brentwood and Ongar ranks #145 for "Leave", #6 for "Right", #82 for "National" and #85 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Brentwood and Ongar: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Brentwood and Ongar

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Brentwood and Ongar.

Brentwood and OngarActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BrentwoodBrentwood North5,328CONCON2,066902357029301313,749
BrentwoodBrentwood South4,539CONCON1,7511,06319801000833,195
BrentwoodBrentwood West5,508CONCON2,196897377026801373,875
BrentwoodBrizes and Doddinghurst4,822CONCON2,43650324909501093,392
BrentwoodHerongate, Ingrave and West Horndon3,108CONCON1,6493141000580652,186
BrentwoodHutton Central2,992CONCON1,533373950550482,104
BrentwoodHutton East3,013CONCON1,3585331190600512,121
BrentwoodHutton North3,157CONCON1,4485131400630592,223
BrentwoodHutton South3,017CONCON1,633318790560372,123
BrentwoodIngatestone, Fryerning and Mountnessing5,090CONCON2,325565311026501163,582
BrentwoodPilgrims Hatch4,618CONCON2,015698314010601163,249
BrentwoodShenfield4,291CONCON1,983468314010601483,019
BrentwoodSouth Weald1,494CONCON715188850310331,052
BrentwoodTipps Cross3,160CONCON1,7402466805901112,224
BrentwoodWarley4,892CONCON2,006733332025101203,442
Epping ForestChipping Ongar, Greensted and Marden Ash3,432CONCON1,75533613706701192,414
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village176CONCON1011340302123
Epping ForestHigh Ongar, Willingale and The Rodings1,876CONCON1,078132310300481,319
Epping ForestLambourne1,602CONCON851172550250251,128
Epping ForestMoreton and Fyfield1,730CONCON1,021108310270321,219
Epping ForestNorth Weald Bassett3,689CONCON1,84942814507001042,596
Epping ForestPassingford1,889CONCON1,142116270260171,328
Epping ForestShelley1,832CONCON987209400310221,289
 Total75,255CONCON35,6389,8283,60802,14501,73352,952

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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