Bridgwater and West Somerset: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Bridgwater and West Somerset: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Ian Liddell-Grainger  (CON)
County/Area: Somerset (South West)
Electorate: 85,327
Turnout: 67.6%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,82762.1%58.4%
LAB11,38819.8%22.5%
LIB7,80513.5%14.7%
Green1,8773.3%3.2%
OTH7551.3%1.2%
CON Majority24,43942.4%Pred Maj 35.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
96%
LAB
3%
LIB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Bridgwater and West Somerset : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Bridgwater and West Somerset constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right8° Right
National Position15° Nat4° Nat
Social Position7° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %63%53%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health43%47%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education33%40%39%
Good Job42%50%51%
High SEC44%52%51%
Average Age52.250.548.5
ABC1 Class43%54%54%

Bridgwater and West Somerset ranks #106 for "Leave", #250 for "Right", #41 for "National" and #104 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bridgwater and West Somerset: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Bridgwater and West Somerset: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Bridgwater and West Somerset

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Bridgwater and West Somerset at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Bridgwater and West Somerset. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Bridgwater and West SomersetActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
SedgemoorBridgwater Dunwear20159181,18629555400
SedgemoorBridgwater Eastover20151,0201,356240000
SedgemoorBridgwater Fairfax20152,5953,060545000
SedgemoorBridgwater Hamp20151,4221,9020000
SedgemoorBridgwater Victoria20151,4661,399062100
SedgemoorBridgwater Westover20151,4011,832373000
SedgemoorBridgwater Wyndham20152,6151,136476000
SedgemoorCannington and Wembdon20153,043080905460
SedgemoorEast Polden20158140004080
SedgemoorHighbridge and Burnham Marine20152,3771,4151,78890701,835
SedgemoorHuntspill and Pawlett2015793028602170
SedgemoorKing's Isle20153,112082707920
SedgemoorKnoll20153,321092264700
SedgemoorNorth Petherton20156,2681,1551,89109410
SedgemoorPuriton and Woolavington20152,25654208774770
SedgemoorQuantocks20153,063662007660
SedgemoorWest Polden20159630005450
West SomersetAlcombe20155764220487306405
West SomersetBrendon Hills2015-100000
West SomersetCarhampton and Withycombe20154720002510
West SomersetCrowcombe and Stogumber20155810001950
West SomersetDulverton and District20152,0360004330
West SomersetDunster and Timberscombe20154240002880
West SomersetGreater Exmoor2015670000880
West SomersetMinehead Central20151,7314693885834030
West SomersetMinehead North2015-100-100
West SomersetMinehead South201576638500355590
West SomersetOld Cleeve20151,3810005240
West SomersetPorlock and District20151,394003505540
West SomersetQuantock Vale20151,235000299478
West SomersetWatchet20152,0729564300462954
West SomersetWest Quantock20155730001880
West SomersetWilliton20154670002201,771

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Bridgwater and West SomersetEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SedgemoorBridgwater Dunwear3,8551,4827072990780392,605
SedgemoorBridgwater Eastover3,7201,3437772760810362,513
SedgemoorBridgwater Fairfax6,1772,2991,23045901280584,174
SedgemoorBridgwater Hamp4,3311,5899232890860392,926
SedgemoorBridgwater Victoria4,8511,87389336201030473,278
SedgemoorBridgwater Westover4,3251,5189303380940422,922
SedgemoorBridgwater Wyndham3,3761,4843803210670282,280
SedgemoorCannington and Wembdon3,7481,6493354300870312,532
SedgemoorEast Polden1,7247741481880410141,165
SedgemoorHighbridge and Burnham Marine143552215030297
SedgemoorHuntspill and Pawlett1,7847901602010390151,205
SedgemoorKing's Isle3,6091,6263103950790292,439
SedgemoorKnoll8974097210001807606
SedgemoorNorth Petherton5,7272,50155363501320483,869
SedgemoorPuriton and Woolavington3,7391,7203573350820332,527
SedgemoorQuantocks3,6321,6453273700830292,454
SedgemoorWest Polden1,9028681592020420141,285
West SomersetAlcombe2,2369293191900520221,512
West SomersetBrendon Hills988473749601807668
West SomersetCarhampton and Withycombe924415958602108625
West SomersetCrowcombe and Stogumber9874438510902308668
West SomersetDulverton and District2,0459461831910440171,381
West SomersetDunster and Timberscombe9724321029102209656
West SomersetGreater Exmoor901434727801807609
West SomersetMinehead Central3,7221,5944503450900362,515
West SomersetMinehead North1,7227951751420360161,164
West SomersetMinehead South1,9257982611790460181,302
West SomersetOld Cleeve1,7617961601760420151,189
West SomersetPorlock and District1,8808631721780410151,269
West SomersetQuantock Vale1,6887691561630380151,141
West SomersetWatchet3,0371,2334362840720272,052
West SomersetWest Quantock850391689101807575
West SomersetWilliton2,1508932961920520191,452
 Total85,32835,82911,3877,80601,876075757,655

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Bridgwater and West Somerset

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Bridgwater and West Somerset.

Bridgwater and West SomersetPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SedgemoorBridgwater Dunwear3,8551,3857793300760362,606
SedgemoorBridgwater Eastover3,7201,2498473060790332,514
SedgemoorBridgwater Fairfax6,1772,1431,34550801240534,173
SedgemoorBridgwater Hamp4,3311,4801,0043240830362,927
SedgemoorBridgwater Victoria4,8511,75198440101000433,279
SedgemoorBridgwater Westover4,3251,4091,0113730910382,922
SedgemoorBridgwater Wyndham3,3761,3994433480650262,281
SedgemoorCannington and Wembdon3,7481,5544054600840282,531
SedgemoorEast Polden1,7247301802020400131,165
SedgemoorHighbridge and Burnham Marine143512516030297
SedgemoorHuntspill and Pawlett1,7847451932150380141,205
SedgemoorKing's Isle3,6091,5353774240770262,439
SedgemoorKnoll8973868910701706605
SedgemoorNorth Petherton5,7272,35766068101280443,870
SedgemoorPuriton and Woolavington3,7391,6264273650800302,528
SedgemoorQuantocks3,6321,5533953990800262,453
SedgemoorWest Polden1,9028201942170410131,285
West SomersetAlcombe2,2368733612080500201,512
West SomersetBrendon Hills9884489210401706667
West SomersetCarhampton and Withycombe9243921129302007624
West SomersetCrowcombe and Stogumber98741810311702207667
West SomersetDulverton and District2,0458942212070430161,381
West SomersetDunster and Timberscombe9724081209902108656
West SomersetGreater Exmoor901411898501706608
West SomersetMinehead Central3,7221,5005203750870332,515
West SomersetMinehead North1,7227522071560350151,165
West SomersetMinehead South1,9257492971940450161,301
West SomersetOld Cleeve1,7617521931900410141,190
West SomersetPorlock and District1,8808162071930400141,270
West SomersetQuantock Vale1,6887261881760370141,141
West SomersetWatchet3,0371,1564933080700252,052
West SomersetWest Quantock850370849801706575
West SomersetWilliton2,1508393362090500171,451
 Total85,32833,67712,9818,48801,818069157,655

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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