Bristol South: Seat Details

Bristol South: Overview

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:Karin Smyth  (LAB)
County/Area:Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:84,079
Turnout:65.6%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB27,89550.5%52.7%
CON18,03632.7%26.2%
LIB4,2277.7%4.8%
Green2,7134.9%9.6%
Reform2,3254.2%4.7%
OTH00.0%2.0%
LAB Majority9,85917.9%26.5%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LAB
96%
CON
4%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
Reform
0%
OTH
0%

Bristol South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Bristol South constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABCONCON
Party Winner 2015LABCONCON
Economic Position10° Left7° Right
National Position4° Glo4° Nat
Social Position6° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %49%53%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born92%92%87%
Good Education35%41%39%
Good Job49%50%51%
High SEC43%52%51%
Average Age46.450.448.3
ABC1 Class48%54%54%
Average House Price£289,885£314,032£309,875

Bristol South ranks #426 for "Leave", #488 for "Right", #464 for "National" and #522 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Bristol South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Bristol South

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Bristol South.

Bristol SouthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BristolBedminster9,617LABLAB1,5273,51727118569201236,315
BristolBishopsworth9,155CONCON2,7412,29816020550101046,009
BristolFilwood9,398LABLAB1,1524,04215421050601066,170
BristolHartcliffe and Withywood12,903LABLAB1,6995,26716962157401398,469
BristolHengrove and Whitchurch Park13,843LABLAB2,8633,89960981369802059,087
BristolKnowle9,821LABLAB1,7523,10848921872701536,447
BristolSouthville9,177LABLAB1,3233,34730416176701236,025
BristolStockwood59CONCON16161140139
BristolWindmill Hill10,107LABLAB1,4103,59947217282901546,636
 Total84,080LABLAB14,48329,0932,6292,5865,29801,10855,197

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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