Bury St Edmunds: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Bury St Edmunds: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Jo Churchill  (CON)
County/Area: Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 89,644
Turnout: 69.1%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON37,77061.0%59.5%
LAB12,78220.6%34.6%
Green9,71115.7%4.5%
OTH1,6942.7%1.5%
CON Majority24,98840.3%Pred Maj 24.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
87%
LAB
12%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Bury St Edmunds : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Bury St Edmunds constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right9° Right
National Position6° Nat7° Nat
Social Position2° Con3° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %53%56%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born93%89%88%
Good Education39%37%39%
Good Job52%53%51%
High SEC54%53%51%
Average Age50.449.448.5
ABC1 Class55%55%54%

Bury St Edmunds ranks #327 for "Leave", #157 for "Right", #248 for "National" and #312 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bury St Edmunds: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Bury St Edmunds: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Bury St Edmunds

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Bury St Edmunds at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Bury St Edmunds. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Bury St EdmundsActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
Mid SuffolkBacton and Old Newton20156870000670
Mid SuffolkBadwell Ash20151,071013703820
Mid SuffolkElmswell and Norton20151,61909087501,4240
Mid SuffolkGislingham20151,0060006070
Mid SuffolkHaughley and Wetherden20150000-10
Mid SuffolkNeedham Market201591302,2284704090
Mid SuffolkOnehouse2015002303437340
Mid SuffolkRattlesden20155150728000
Mid SuffolkRickinghall and Walsham20152,70359631708290
Mid SuffolkRingshall201574003382574860
Mid SuffolkStowmarket Central20151,8315052326077430
Mid SuffolkStowmarket North20155,9451,28401,1322,2260
Mid SuffolkStowmarket South20158560768574352934
Mid SuffolkStowupland20155830006860
Mid SuffolkThurston and Hessett20152,37706065235760
Mid SuffolkWoolpit20157430004580
St EdmundsburyAbbeygate20152,06269163507590
St EdmundsburyEastgate20156125180000
St EdmundsburyFornham20158943360000
St EdmundsburyGreat Barton20151,0542640000
St EdmundsburyHorringer and Whelnetham20159054110000
St EdmundsburyMinden20151,83758305438610
St EdmundsburyMoreton Hall20155,0819610001,428
St EdmundsburyNorthgate20155025210000
St EdmundsburyPakenham20159263210000
St EdmundsburyRisbygate2015926558009281,067
St EdmundsburyRougham20159673510000
St EdmundsburySouthgate20152,68658649045000
St EdmundsburySt Olaves20156771,161000835
St EdmundsburyWestgate20152,09357305290771

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Bury St EdmundsEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid SuffolkBacton and Old Newton1,912891193001970421,323
Mid SuffolkBadwell Ash2,097961226002260371,450
Mid SuffolkElmswell and Norton4,2901,763647004780772,965
Mid SuffolkGislingham2,089957220002290381,444
Mid SuffolkHaughley and Wetherden1,719709255001930311,188
Mid SuffolkNeedham Market3,5801,458558003930662,475
Mid SuffolkOnehouse1,861790256002060331,285
Mid SuffolkRattlesden1,650735202001730301,140
Mid SuffolkRickinghall and Walsham3,5821,613410003890642,476
Mid SuffolkRingshall2,7771,199359003070541,919
Mid SuffolkStowmarket Central3,5181,469509003880652,431
Mid SuffolkStowmarket North7,7483,2891,0690085901395,356
Mid SuffolkStowmarket South3,9361,520683004320852,720
Mid SuffolkStowupland1,790776234001940331,237
Mid SuffolkThurston and Hessett3,4661,529428003790602,396
Mid SuffolkWoolpit1,569712173001710281,084
St EdmundsburyAbbeygate3,8861,469702004430722,686
St EdmundsburyEastgate1,967731385002080361,360
St EdmundsburyFornham1,595736175001640281,103
St EdmundsburyGreat Barton1,729827160001790291,195
St EdmundsburyHorringer and Whelnetham1,770788221001820331,224
St EdmundsburyMinden3,7241,525568004130682,574
St EdmundsburyMoreton Hall6,2732,7807630066601274,336
St EdmundsburyNorthgate2,083748440002150381,441
St EdmundsburyPakenham2,7041,248289002810511,869
St EdmundsburyRisbygate4,0141,438782004660882,774
St EdmundsburyRougham1,834828218001890321,267
St EdmundsburySouthgate3,5941,551490003800642,485
St EdmundsburySt Olaves3,6111,241803003730782,495
St EdmundsburyWestgate3,2771,490366003410682,265
 Total89,64537,77112,784009,71401,69461,963

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Bury St Edmunds

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Bury St Edmunds.

Bury St EdmundsPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid SuffolkBacton and Old Newton1,91287137300570221,323
Mid SuffolkBadwell Ash2,09793942600650201,450
Mid SuffolkElmswell and Norton4,2901,7191,068001380412,966
Mid SuffolkGislingham2,08993642200660201,444
Mid SuffolkHaughley and Wetherden1,71969142500560161,188
Mid SuffolkNeedham Market3,5801,421906001130352,475
Mid SuffolkOnehouse1,86177143700590181,285
Mid SuffolkRattlesden1,65071835600500161,140
Mid SuffolkRickinghall and Walsham3,5821,576754001120342,476
Mid SuffolkRingshall2,7771,17063100880291,918
Mid SuffolkStowmarket Central3,5181,433852001120342,431
Mid SuffolkStowmarket North7,7483,2091,826002470745,356
Mid SuffolkStowmarket South3,9361,4801,071001240452,720
Mid SuffolkStowupland1,79075840600560181,238
Mid SuffolkThurston and Hessett3,4661,493762001090322,396
Mid SuffolkWoolpit1,56969632400490151,084
St EdmundsburyAbbeygate3,8861,4291,091001270382,685
St EdmundsburyEastgate1,96771157000600191,360
St EdmundsburyFornham1,59572032100470151,103
St EdmundsburyGreat Barton1,72980931900520151,195
St EdmundsburyHorringer and Whelnetham1,77077038400520181,224
St EdmundsburyMinden3,7241,487932001190362,574
St EdmundsburyMoreton Hall6,2732,7161,361001920674,336
St EdmundsburyNorthgate2,08372763200620201,441
St EdmundsburyPakenham2,7041,22054100810271,869
St EdmundsburyRisbygate4,0141,3971,196001340472,774
St EdmundsburyRougham1,83480938600540171,266
St EdmundsburySouthgate3,5941,514828001090342,485
St EdmundsburySt Olaves3,6111,2041,142001070412,494
St EdmundsburyWestgate3,2771,45667400980362,264
 Total89,64536,85021,416002,795089961,960

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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