Carmarthen East and Dinefwr: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr: Overview

 Prediction: Plaid hold 

MP at 2019: Jonathan Edwards  (Plaid)
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate: 57,407
Turnout: 71.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
Plaid15,93938.9%38.9%
CON14,13034.5%33.2%
LAB8,62221.0%23.0%
Brexit2,3115.6%3.7%
Green00.0%0.4%
OTH00.0%0.9%
Plaid Majority1,8094.4%Pred Maj 5.7%
Chance of
winning
Plaid
53%
CON
34%
LAB
12%
Brexit
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Carmarthen East and Dinefwr constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2017PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2015PlaidLABCON
Economic Position17° Left8° Left
National Position2° Glo
Social Position4° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %50%53%52%
British Identity21%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born97%94%87%
Good Education37%37%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC46%46%51%
Average Age52.749.548.3
ABC1 Class46%48%54%

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr ranks #411 for "Leave", #579 for "Right", #427 for "National" and #507 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr.

Carmarthen East and DinefwrActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireAbergwili1,911PlaidPlaid48718404246360111,364
CarmarthenshireAmmanford1,978PlaidPlaid37243004145540111,412
CarmarthenshireBetws1,845PlaidPlaid40838906864320151,318
CarmarthenshireCenarth1,662PlaidPlaid38519003545650101,189
CarmarthenshireCilycwm1,180CONLAB293297027321507842
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Gaeo1,336CONCON409125028338208955
CarmarthenshireGarnant1,573LABLAB33245503642870101,124
CarmarthenshireGlanamman1,838PlaidPlaid36744203944500111,313
CarmarthenshireGorslas3,692PlaidPlaid83757907681,1150212,636
CarmarthenshireLlanddarog1,664PlaidPlaid4271520344563091,189
CarmarthenshireLlandeilo2,350CONCON68734906265580161,678
CarmarthenshireLlandovery2,081PlaidPlaid44835606965910161,486
CarmarthenshireLlandybie3,239PlaidPlaid777533010198690242,313
CarmarthenshireLlanegwad2,007PlaidPlaid50319906066510141,433
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel Aberbythych1,486PlaidPlaid34816107564570151,062
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel-ar-Arth2,241PlaidPlaid50224804957840131,601
CarmarthenshireLlangadog1,614CONCON45120604444370111,153
CarmarthenshireLlangeler2,762PlaidPlaid64030905869420161,971
CarmarthenshireLlangunnor2,139PlaidPlaid51140604755450131,527
CarmarthenshireLlangyndeyrn2,800PlaidPlaid60153406677740171,999
CarmarthenshireLlanybydder2,096CONCON61632606064750151,498
CarmarthenshireManordeilo and Salem1,797PlaidPlaid47118604045730111,285
CarmarthenshirePenygroes2,305PlaidPlaid468417011196180231,646
CarmarthenshirePontamman2,116LABLAB47255306364020151,511
CarmarthenshireQuarter Bach2,181PlaidPlaid42947604755880131,558
CarmarthenshireSaron3,265PlaidPlaid74567907178100192,331
CarmarthenshireSt Ishmael2,260PlaidPlaid62424805356690141,613
 Total57,418PlaidPlaid13,6109,42901,50214615,942037841,007

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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