Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Simon Hart  (CON)
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate: 58,629
Turnout: 71.8%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON22,18352.7%51.4%
LAB14,43834.3%36.3%
Plaid3,6338.6%8.6%
LIB1,8604.4%2.4%
Green00.0%0.4%
OTH00.0%0.9%
CON Majority7,74518.4%Pred Maj 15.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
83%
LAB
17%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position8° Left
National Position7° Nat
Social Position3° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %57%53%52%
British Identity26%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born95%94%87%
Good Education37%37%39%
Good Job43%46%51%
High SEC45%46%51%
Average Age52.049.548.3
ABC1 Class44%48%54%

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South ranks #244 for "Leave", #365 for "Right", #224 for "National" and #285 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South.

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town North3,824CONLAB1,1121,205850122770302,721
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town South2,811CONCON92974361082380222,001
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town West3,612CONCON1,121961950123480322,569
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Elfed2,555CONCON92455041062830161,820
CarmarthenshireLaugharne Township2,188CONCON78350836062100141,557
CarmarthenshireLlanboidy1,684CONCON6033652104197091,199
CarmarthenshireLlansteffan1,716CONCON62937128041770111,220
CarmarthenshireSt Clears2,531CONCON88858040062720161,802
CarmarthenshireTrelech1,768CONCON65237522041970101,260
CarmarthenshireWhitland1,800CONCON65644337051260131,280
PembrokeshireAmroth989CONCON441195330420010703
PembrokeshireCarew1,182CONCON440256180311707841
PembrokeshireEast Williamston2,008CONCON8404912905540121,431
PembrokeshireHundleton1,415CONCON593340140350071,007
PembrokeshireKilgetty / Begelly1,689CONCON62739225041440101,202
PembrokeshireLampeter Velfrey1,248CONCON51928317036007889
PembrokeshireLamphey1,415CONCON594332240444091,007
PembrokeshireManorbier1,628CONCON688394190345091,158
PembrokeshireMartletwy1,147CONCON56718211024806816
PembrokeshireNarberth1,561LABLAB4595463405560121,112
PembrokeshireNarberth Rural1,221CONCON51028219034708869
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Central1,068CONCON35535016033007761
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Llanion1,942LABLAB5917152604330111,380
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Market1,315CONCON47638025044209936
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Pennar2,467LABLAB6549913005620141,756
PembrokeshirePembroke: Monkton1,042CONCON35533714022806742
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary North1,486CONCON554445160331081,057
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary South1,028CONCON42425815022806733
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Michael2,072CONCON1,0014012304340111,474
PembrokeshirePenally1,285CONCON55226222036709915
PembrokeshireSaundersfoot1,999CONCON8624743105380131,423
PembrokeshireTenby: North1,703CONCON57541342061630141,213
PembrokeshireTenby: South1,758CONCON6694613705660131,251
 Total59,157CONCON21,64315,2811,00601523,632039142,105

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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