Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Simon Hart  (CON)
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate: 58,629
Turnout: 71.8%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON22,18352.7%50.3%
LAB14,43834.3%34.6%
Plaid3,6338.6%9.9%
LIB1,8604.4%5.2%
CON Majority7,74518.4%Pred Maj 15.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
77%
LAB
23%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position9° Left
National Position7° Nat
Social Position3° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %57%53%52%
British Identity26%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born95%95%88%
Good Education37%36%39%
Good Job43%46%51%
High SEC45%46%51%
Average Age52.049.648.5
ABC1 Class44%47%54%

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South ranks #244 for "Leave", #365 for "Right", #224 for "National" and #285 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
OTH
Votes
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town North201204800001,481705
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town South20120319000895799
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town West2012000001,546896
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Elfed201200000631827
CarmarthenshireLaugharne Township201202280000714
CarmarthenshireLlanboidy201200000444393
CarmarthenshireLlansteffan201200000538543
CarmarthenshireSt Clears201200273000975
CarmarthenshireTrelech20120013300321471
CarmarthenshireWhitland20120811700230514
PembrokeshireAmroth201216700000313
PembrokeshireCarew2012000000-1
PembrokeshireEast Williamston20124100000884
PembrokeshireHundleton201201200000634
PembrokeshireKilgetty / Begelly2012000000-1
PembrokeshireLampeter Velfrey201218500000362
PembrokeshireLamphey2012136850000455
PembrokeshireManorbier2012701320000803
PembrokeshireMartletwy201224200000533
PembrokeshireNarberth2012000000801
PembrokeshireNarberth Rural20128700000472
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Central2012621900000177
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Llanion201203950000338
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Market201201650000361
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Pennar20120-100000
PembrokeshirePembroke: Monkton2012000000500
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary North201213600000304
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary South201213600000336
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Michael201243200000489
PembrokeshirePenally2012255000027645
PembrokeshireSaundersfoot201233300000562
PembrokeshireTenby: North201215200005180
PembrokeshireTenby: South2012000000710

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town North3,8911,3101,03511700332002,794
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town South2,9191,0117588900239002,097
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town West3,9901,3251,07513200333002,865
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Elfed2,2878964727300202001,643
CarmarthenshireLaugharne Township2,1598345386600113001,551
CarmarthenshireLlanboidy1,5916323224800141001,143
CarmarthenshireLlansteffan1,4975683165300138001,075
CarmarthenshireSt Clears2,2628925179500121001,625
CarmarthenshireTrelech1,5756303116200128001,131
CarmarthenshireWhitland1,7146443905600142001,232
PembrokeshireAmroth94141019134004200677
PembrokeshireCarew1,15447725339005900828
PembrokeshireEast Williamston1,868778418590087001,342
PembrokeshireHundleton1,424583324450071001,023
PembrokeshireKilgetty / Begelly1,677698382500074001,204
PembrokeshireLampeter Velfrey1,18751823342006100854
PembrokeshireLamphey1,27652328346006500917
PembrokeshireManorbier1,583636370540077001,137
PembrokeshireMartletwy1,06146520139005700762
PembrokeshireNarberth1,447545366500078001,039
PembrokeshireNarberth Rural1,16948425342006100840
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Central1,34841745831006200968
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Llanion2,129656729510093001,529
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Market1,36145941337006900978
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Pennar2,5437798546900124001,826
PembrokeshirePembroke: Monkton1,25842140026005600903
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary North1,570594422380074001,128
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary South1,08843027029005200781
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Michael1,816813351630077001,304
PembrokeshirePenally1,32056025945008400948
PembrokeshireSaundersfoot1,985882391670086001,426
PembrokeshireTenby: North1,5825733775200134001,136
PembrokeshireTenby: South1,9597415075900101001,408
 Total58,63122,18414,4391,858003,6330042,114

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South.

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town North3,8911,2431,04513800368002,794
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town South2,91996176610400266002,097
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town West3,9901,2571,08515300370002,865
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Elfed2,2878574788500223001,643
CarmarthenshireLaugharne Township2,1597975447700133001,551
CarmarthenshireLlanboidy1,5916053265600156001,143
CarmarthenshireLlansteffan1,4975423206100152001,075
CarmarthenshireSt Clears2,26285352310700142001,625
CarmarthenshireTrelech1,5756033157000143001,131
CarmarthenshireWhitland1,7146153946500158001,232
PembrokeshireAmroth94139419339005100677
PembrokeshireCarew1,15445725645007000828
PembrokeshireEast Williamston1,8687464236900104001,342
PembrokeshireHundleton1,424559328530084001,024
PembrokeshireKilgetty / Begelly1,677669386590089001,203
PembrokeshireLampeter Velfrey1,18749823648007200854
PembrokeshireLamphey1,27650128653007700917
PembrokeshireManorbier1,583609374620092001,137
PembrokeshireMartletwy1,06144720445006700763
PembrokeshireNarberth1,447520370580091001,039
PembrokeshireNarberth Rural1,16946425648007200840
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Central1,34839446138007400967
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Llanion2,1296207346200113001,529
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Market1,36143641744008200979
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Pennar2,5437358618200148001,826
PembrokeshirePembroke: Monkton1,25839940333006800903
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary North1,570567426460089001,128
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary South1,08841127335006200781
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Michael1,816782356730094001,305
PembrokeshirePenally1,32053726252009600947
PembrokeshireSaundersfoot1,9858483967800104001,426
PembrokeshireTenby: North1,5825463816000149001,136
PembrokeshireTenby: South1,9597075126900119001,407
 Total58,63121,17914,5902,167004,1780042,114

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (07-Jan-2020 16:36, Py3L, sc3078)