Ceredigion: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Ceredigion: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: Plaid 

MP at 2019: Ben Lake  (Plaid)
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate: 56,250
Turnout: 71.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
Plaid15,20837.9%21.3%
CON8,87922.1%22.9%
LIB6,97517.4%22.0%
LAB6,31715.8%22.8%
Brexit2,0635.1%7.6%
Green6631.7%3.4%
Plaid Majority6,32915.8%Pred Maj 0.2%
Chance of
winning
Plaid
22%
CON
29%
LIB
21%
LAB
27%
Brexit
1%
Green
0%

Ceredigion : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ceredigion constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2017PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2015LIBLABCON
Economic Position13° Left9° Left
National Position10° Glo
Social Position13° Lib2° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %45%53%52%
British Identity29%26%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born94%95%88%
Good Education47%36%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC45%46%51%
Average Age49.049.648.5
ABC1 Class52%47%54%

Ceredigion ranks #490 for "Leave", #527 for "Right", #520 for "National" and #592 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ceredigion: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Ceredigion: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Ceredigion

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Ceredigion at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Ceredigion. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

CeredigionActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
OTH
Votes
CeredigionAberaeron20120065100620
CeredigionAberporth2012980000218500
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Mwldan2012500200004760
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Rhyd-y-Fuwch201200320001020
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Teifi20120094001630
CeredigionAberystwyth Bronglais20124800004050
CeredigionAberystwyth Canol / Central2012220231001170
CeredigionAberystwyth Gogledd / North201229016800215107
CeredigionAberystwyth Penparcau201269031100693247
CeredigionAberystwyth Rheidol201222013700143327
CeredigionBeulah201239085005860
CeredigionBorth20127200000650
CeredigionCapel Dewi201200000270363
CeredigionCeulanamaesmawr201200291004690
CeredigionCiliau Aeron2012710324004050
CeredigionFaenor2012280515002450
CeredigionLampeter20124988413000262637
CeredigionLlanarth2012520251002840
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Padarn201219039002290
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Sulien201219046003380
CeredigionLlandyfriog201210600004850
CeredigionLlandysilio-gogo20126700000735
CeredigionLlandysul Town201200000373271
CeredigionLlanfarian2012270164003910
CeredigionLlanfihangel Ystrad201200303005500
CeredigionLlangeitho201200248000424
CeredigionLlangybi201200144004190
CeredigionLlanrhystyd201200504000165
CeredigionLlansantffraed201200141000842
CeredigionLlanwenog2012007200366395
CeredigionLledrod2012000000-1
CeredigionMelindwr201200255006010
CeredigionNew Quay201215900000249
CeredigionPen-parc201200000264584
CeredigionPenbryn2012008100318431
CeredigionTirymynach201200544002500
CeredigionTrefeurig201200000300422
CeredigionTregaron201200000-10
CeredigionTroedyraur201200000172361
CeredigionYstwyth2012340432002220

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

CeredigionEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CeredigionAberaeron1,05517898195371023300751
CeredigionAberporth1,8013531841827816472001,285
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Mwldan1,363223138149571239200971
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Rhyd-y-Fuwch85412412012134820200609
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Teifi86310613288371024300616
CeredigionAberystwyth Bronglais1,5401672341673332465001,098
CeredigionAberystwyth Canol / Central1,7591723302783643396001,255
CeredigionAberystwyth Gogledd / North2,0382023392934047531001,452
CeredigionAberystwyth Penparcau2,3132803392308625690001,650
CeredigionAberystwyth Rheidol1,9282243212644834483001,374
CeredigionBeulah1,22020796118531138400869
CeredigionBorth1,5322801701965316377001,092
CeredigionCapel Dewi9841748594471029200702
CeredigionCeulanamaesmawr1,4211941212034616433001,013
CeredigionCiliau Aeron1,4662581161906213406001,045
CeredigionFaenor1,8812502143465028454001,342
CeredigionLampeter2,1712625152116923467001,547
CeredigionLlanarth1,198214100152521132400853
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Padarn763909083221024800543
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Sulien1,7651892781874437524001,259
CeredigionLlandyfriog1,357264108126591239800967
CeredigionLlandysilio-gogo1,4873411261716611345001,060
CeredigionLlandysul Town1,05216810895451032400750
CeredigionLlanfarian1,14217796145401134400813
CeredigionLlanfihangel Ystrad1,5492601311837114445001,104
CeredigionLlangeitho1,11421893179471024800795
CeredigionLlangybi1,08616794124481033100774
CeredigionLlanrhystyd1,18521192219451026700844
CeredigionLlansantffraed1,7653511682327017421001,259
CeredigionLlanwenog1,372238124132641440500977
CeredigionLledrod1,6173201631917014394001,152
CeredigionMelindwr1,4972191321885516457001,067
CeredigionNew Quay788207658329717100562
CeredigionPen-parc1,7033141451767616487001,214
CeredigionPenbryn1,4882691181575915442001,060
CeredigionTirymynach1,4292331182464614361001,018
CeredigionTrefeurig1,302190122147441441100928
CeredigionTregaron9001418884401027800641
CeredigionTroedyraur974175909944927700694
CeredigionYstwyth1,5302681172486113384001,091
 Total56,2528,8786,3186,9722,06365915,2060040,096

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ceredigion

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ceredigion.

CeredigionPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CeredigionAberaeron1,055184151229562310800751
CeredigionAberporth1,80136327424111039258001,285
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Mwldan1,363231206193812923000970
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Rhyd-y-Fuwch854129163149491910000609
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Teifi863111175116522114000615
CeredigionAberystwyth Bronglais1,5401763112176051282001,097
CeredigionAberystwyth Canol / Central1,7591824183356765187001,254
CeredigionAberystwyth Gogledd / North2,0382144413597673289001,452
CeredigionAberystwyth Penparcau2,31329345530512754415001,649
CeredigionAberystwyth Rheidol1,9282354183278258254001,374
CeredigionBeulah1,220214157158752623900869
CeredigionBorth1,5322892472468035195001,092
CeredigionCapel Dewi984180134126652217500702
CeredigionCeulanamaesmawr1,4212021922497134264001,012
CeredigionCiliau Aeron1,4662661892388831232001,044
CeredigionFaenor1,8812613084078452230001,342
CeredigionLampeter2,17127462428210850209001,547
CeredigionLlanarth1,198221160191732618200853
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Padarn76394128108362015700543
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Sulien1,7651993672457559314001,259
CeredigionLlandyfriog1,357272176170832923700967
CeredigionLlandysilio-gogo1,4873502012199330168001,061
CeredigionLlandysul Town1,052174161129642319900750
CeredigionLlanfarian1,142184153182602520800812
CeredigionLlanfihangel Ystrad1,5492692092339934261001,105
CeredigionLlangeitho1,114224149215672411500794
CeredigionLlangybi1,086173148159672420200773
CeredigionLlanrhystyd1,185218151258662512600844
CeredigionLlansantffraed1,76536125729010139211001,259
CeredigionLlanwenog1,372246193177883124200977
CeredigionLledrod1,6173292442449934202001,152
CeredigionMelindwr1,4972282072378235279001,068
CeredigionNew Quay78821210510943177700563
CeredigionPen-parc1,70332423023110637285001,213
CeredigionPenbryn1,4882781932058634265001,061
CeredigionTirymynach1,4292411902927132191001,017
CeredigionTrefeurig1,302197187189673025600926
CeredigionTregaron900146133113562117100640
CeredigionTroedyraur974181139131612116100694
CeredigionYstwyth1,5302771942988832202001,091
 Total56,2529,2029,1388,8023,0621,3648,5180040,086

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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