Ceredigion: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Ceredigion: Overview

 Prediction: Plaid hold 

MP at 2019: Ben Lake  (Plaid)
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate: 56,250
Turnout: 71.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
Plaid15,20837.9%37.9%
CON8,87922.1%20.9%
LIB6,97517.4%9.4%
LAB6,31715.8%22.5%
Brexit2,0635.1%3.3%
Green6631.7%2.9%
OTH00.0%3.1%
Plaid Majority6,32915.8%Pred Maj 15.4%
Chance of
winning
Plaid
69%
CON
14%
LIB
1%
LAB
16%
Brexit
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Ceredigion : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ceredigion constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2017PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2015LIBLABCON
Economic Position13° Left8° Left
National Position10° Glo
Social Position13° Lib2° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %45%53%52%
British Identity29%26%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born94%94%87%
Good Education47%37%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC45%46%51%
Average Age49.049.548.3
ABC1 Class52%48%54%

Ceredigion ranks #490 for "Leave", #527 for "Right", #520 for "National" and #592 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ceredigion: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ceredigion

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ceredigion.

CeredigionActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CeredigionAberaeron1,138LIBCON1881721882722182031810
CeredigionAberporth1,895PlaidPlaid3092789448305500411,350
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Mwldan1,571PlaidPlaid21224214238284130431,118
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Rhyd-y-Fuwch943PlaidPlaid1061751122117216025672
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Teifi789PlaidPlaid77153621717215021562
CeredigionAberystwyth Bronglais1,005PlaidPlaid109158562020329022714
CeredigionAberystwyth Canol / Central1,313LIBLAB1532451842960229035935
CeredigionAberystwyth Gogledd / North1,203PlaidPlaid1271991142429330031854
CeredigionAberystwyth Penparcau2,228PlaidPlaid22547019151425480591,586
CeredigionAberystwyth Rheidol1,714PlaidLAB20537916138423490461,220
CeredigionBeulah1,422PlaidPlaid2111605031185180241,012
CeredigionBorth1,680PlaidPlaid2742858841404290371,194
CeredigionCapel Dewi1,105PlaidPlaid172147392917362019785
CeredigionCeulanamaesmawr1,567PlaidPlaid1922016931325600291,114
CeredigionCiliau Aeron1,617PlaidPlaid2722236642274900311,151
CeredigionFaenor1,512LIBPlaid18326621733522850401,076
CeredigionLampeter1,741LABLAB1885548241313090351,240
CeredigionLlanarth1,211PlaidPlaid170146422916438020861
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Padarn818PlaidPlaid89134771719225021582
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Sulien846PlaidPlaid90135471627268018601
CeredigionLlandyfriog1,529PlaidPlaid2341815433215380261,087
CeredigionLlandysilio-gogo1,610PlaidPlaid3422336848273940321,144
CeredigionLlandysul Town1,098PlaidPlaid181160422817335020783
CeredigionLlanfarian1,224PlaidPlaid171141492520443022871
CeredigionLlanfihangel Ystrad1,724PlaidPlaid24424710941534890441,227
CeredigionLlangeitho1,156PlaidPlaid214222503122262023824
CeredigionLlangybi1,200PlaidPlaid142233452421369020854
CeredigionLlanrhystyd1,319LIBLAB1952361643147229036938
CeredigionLlansantffraed1,982PlaidPlaid3963059657394740431,410
CeredigionLlanwenog1,501PlaidPlaid2942376842263700311,068
CeredigionLledrod1,853PlaidPlaid3382948453364730391,317
CeredigionMelindwr1,613PlaidPlaid2052269336355140381,147
CeredigionNew Quay893PlaidPlaid175146422316214019635
CeredigionPen-parc1,957PlaidPlaid35625110047325640431,393
CeredigionPenbryn1,810PlaidPlaid3482397446325140341,287
CeredigionTirymynach1,453PlaidPlaid21519616129263670391,033
CeredigionTrefeurig1,415PlaidPlaid2432317839323510331,007
CeredigionTregaron953PlaidPlaid127146942217247026679
CeredigionTroedyraur1,117PlaidPlaid155138372517404018794
CeredigionYstwyth1,660PlaidPlaid23923117938324150451,179
 Total56,385PlaidPlaid8,3669,0153,7681,3411,15415,21101,25940,114

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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