Chesterfield: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Chesterfield: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2019: Toby Perkins  (LAB)
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 70,994
Turnout: 63.6%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB18,17140.2%45.5%
CON16,72037.0%35.7%
Brexit4,77110.6%6.9%
LIB3,9858.8%5.1%
Green1,1482.5%3.5%
OTH3910.9%3.3%
LAB Majority1,4513.2%Pred Maj 9.7%
Chance of
winning
LAB
67%
CON
33%
Brexit
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Chesterfield : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Chesterfield constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABCONCON
Party Winner 2015LABCONCON
Economic Position13° Left4° Right
National Position5° Nat7° Nat
Social Position1° Con4° Con
TribeTradition
EU Leave %59%59%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health42%45%48%
UK Born96%90%87%
Good Education34%37%39%
Good Job47%48%51%
High SEC46%47%51%
Average Age50.248.948.3
ABC1 Class46%50%54%

Chesterfield ranks #177 for "Leave", #539 for "Right", #272 for "National" and #352 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Chesterfield: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Chesterfield

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Chesterfield.

ChesterfieldActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChesterfieldBrimington North3,145LABLAB6271,04275134580631,999
ChesterfieldBrimington South4,845LABLAB1,1171,471125206820803,081
ChesterfieldBrockwell5,148CONLAB1,2361,34423422611901153,274
ChesterfieldDunston4,672LABLAB9211,563119198750952,971
ChesterfieldHasland4,871LABLAB1,0511,4481332041820803,098
ChesterfieldHollingwood and Inkersall5,756LABLAB1,3311,6941052549801793,661
ChesterfieldHolmebrook3,033LABLAB649922108129650561,929
ChesterfieldLinacre3,200CONCON861734158142720702,037
ChesterfieldLoundsley Green2,908LABLAB60695177122470481,851
ChesterfieldMiddlecroft and Poolsbrook3,430LABLAB6681,17953145550812,181
ChesterfieldMoor3,263LABLAB722906116187650802,076
ChesterfieldOld Whittington3,105LABLAB688899103142580841,974
ChesterfieldRother4,512LABLAB8361,568107192760922,871
ChesterfieldSt Helen's3,473LABLAB6961,17081144640562,211
ChesterfieldSt Leonard's6,028LABLAB1,3181,83519425113201053,835
ChesterfieldWalton4,593CONCON1,29684925220721401042,922
ChesterfieldWest5,051CONCON1,52797626222111501113,212
 Total71,033LABLAB16,15020,5512,3023,1041,57701,49945,183

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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