Clwyd South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Clwyd South: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Simon Baynes  (CON)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 53,919
Turnout: 67.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON16,22244.7%44.0%
LAB14,98341.3%41.1%
Plaid2,1375.9%3.6%
LIB1,4964.1%5.7%
Brexit1,4684.0%5.7%
CON Majority1,2393.4%Pred Maj 2.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
56%
LAB
44%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Brexit
0%

Clwyd South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Clwyd South constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position8° Left9° Left
National Position7° Nat
Social Position2° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %59%53%52%
British Identity26%26%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education34%36%39%
Good Job42%46%51%
High SEC42%46%51%
Average Age49.749.648.5
ABC1 Class42%47%54%

Clwyd South ranks #174 for "Leave", #467 for "Right", #227 for "National" and #320 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Clwyd South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Clwyd South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Clwyd South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Clwyd South at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Clwyd South. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Clwyd SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
OTH
Votes
DenbighshireCorwen201200000-10
DenbighshireLlandrillo201200000-10
DenbighshireLlangollen20122064270091895671
WrexhamBronington2012587226700000
WrexhamBrymbo20125782670000135
WrexhamBryn Cefn201285271700000
WrexhamCefn2012070200001,306
WrexhamChirk North201203670000434
WrexhamChirk South201203200000466
WrexhamCoedpoeth201277959000476635
WrexhamDyffryn Ceiriog / Ceiriog Valley2012346800050679
WrexhamEsclusham2012000000-1
WrexhamGwenfro20120348290000
WrexhamJohnstown2012000000-1
WrexhamLlangollen Rural2012000000-1
WrexhamMarchwiel201212500000488
WrexhamMinera201203120000457
WrexhamNew Broughton201203200000398
WrexhamOverton201249802090000
WrexhamPant201202470000405
WrexhamPenycae201201620000407
WrexhamPenycae and Ruabon South201202340000431
WrexhamPlas Madoc20120178000083
WrexhamPonciau20120737435000973
WrexhamRuabon2012783970003050

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Clwyd SouthEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireCorwen1,7495334455051099001,178
DenbighshireLlandrillo858271204272605000578
DenbighshireLlangollen3,075921785103820180002,071
WrexhamBronington2,3589494069061082001,588
WrexhamBrymbo3,0601,08371480820102002,061
WrexhamBryn Cefn1,6284494974645060001,097
WrexhamCefn3,8401,0641,192891070135002,587
WrexhamChirk North1,8535165674752066001,248
WrexhamChirk South1,5184344533842056001,023
WrexhamCoedpoeth3,5441,0021,018941000172002,386
WrexhamDyffryn Ceiriog / Ceiriog Valley1,6295393894750072001,097
WrexhamEsclusham2,0896365825359076001,406
WrexhamGwenfro1,336309478323504600900
WrexhamJohnstown2,4727556876471088001,665
WrexhamLlangollen Rural1,5474884054542061001,041
WrexhamMarchwiel1,7766144115648066001,195
WrexhamMinera1,8625675056048074001,254
WrexhamNew Broughton2,5866788416566092001,742
WrexhamOverton2,4909994359066087001,677
WrexhamPant1,7764655804047063001,195
WrexhamPenycae1,6574655123547057001,116
WrexhamPenycae and Ruabon South1,8785785135650068001,265
WrexhamPlas Madoc1,470286604223104600989
WrexhamPonciau3,6341,0231,0741131010136002,447
WrexhamRuabon2,23459868857600101001,504
 Total53,91916,22214,9851,4991,46902,1350036,310

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Clwyd South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Clwyd South.

Clwyd SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireCorwen1,7495254437476060001,178
DenbighshireLlandrillo858267203393903000578
DenbighshireLlangollen3,0759077811461270109002,070
WrexhamBronington2,35893840311284050001,587
WrexhamBrymbo3,0601,069710108112062002,061
WrexhamBryn Cefn1,6284424956262036001,097
WrexhamCefn3,8401,0471,187126146082002,588
WrexhamChirk North1,8535085656571040001,249
WrexhamChirk South1,5184274515358034001,023
WrexhamCoedpoeth3,5449861,0141371450105002,387
WrexhamDyffryn Ceiriog / Ceiriog Valley1,6295323876569044001,097
WrexhamEsclusham2,0896275797380046001,405
WrexhamGwenfro1,336303476454802800900
WrexhamJohnstown2,4727446848896053001,665
WrexhamLlangollen Rural1,5474814036159037001,041
WrexhamMarchwiel1,7766064097467040001,196
WrexhamMinera1,8625595037968045001,254
WrexhamNew Broughton2,5866668389092056001,742
WrexhamOverton2,49098843211491053001,678
WrexhamPant1,7764575785765038001,195
WrexhamPenycae1,6574575105163035001,116
WrexhamPenycae and Ruabon South1,8785695117469041001,264
WrexhamPlas Madoc1,470279602354502800989
WrexhamPonciau3,6341,0071,070149139083002,448
WrexhamRuabon2,2345886858387061001,504
 Total53,91915,97914,9192,0602,05801,2960036,312

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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