Clwyd West: Seat Details

Clwyd West: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:David Jones  (CON)
County/Area:Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate:57,714
Turnout:69.7%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON20,40350.7%45.5%
LAB13,65634.0%38.2%
Plaid3,9079.7%9.7%
LIB2,2375.6%3.2%
Green00.0%1.5%
OTH00.0%1.9%
CON Majority6,74716.8%7.3%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
68%
LAB
32%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Clwyd West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Clwyd West constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position1° Right8° Left
National Position6° Nat
Social Position4° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %55%53%52%
British Identity29%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born96%94%87%
Good Education37%37%39%
Good Job48%46%51%
High SEC49%46%51%
Average Age53.549.548.3
ABC1 Class48%48%54%

Clwyd West ranks #294 for "Leave", #328 for "Right", #255 for "National" and #241 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Clwyd West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Clwyd West

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Clwyd West.

Clwyd WestActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyAbergele Pensarn1,961LABLAB54070924017510221,363
ConwyBetws yn Rhos1,639CONCON535433240151150191,141
ConwyColwyn3,334CONLAB8869941540461840592,323
ConwyEirias2,744CONCON847799610281390371,911
ConwyGele3,808CONCON1,407893520352230442,654
ConwyGlyn3,064LABLAB6101,064560303360392,135
ConwyKinmel Bay4,619CONCON1,5871,305550411770523,217
ConwyLlanddulas1,334CONCON4593552401361017929
ConwyLlandrillo yn Rhos6,075CONCON2,4411,3431030582120754,232
ConwyLlangernyw1,134CONCON28927513010190013790
ConwyLlansannan1,489CONCON388365170132380171,038
ConwyLlysfaen1,926CONCON70348323017950221,343
ConwyMochdre1,484LABLAB35257019013630171,034
ConwyPentre Mawr2,828CONCON1,002746520281060361,970
ConwyRhiw5,065CONCON1,6891,2772370711660913,531
ConwyTowyn1,852CONCON67150622016530211,289
ConwyUwchaled1,154CONCON30027713010191013804
DenbighshireEfenechtyd1,343CONCON34332020013224016936
DenbighshireLlanarmon-yn-Ial / Llandegla1,978CONCON813385310191070241,379
DenbighshireLlanbedr Dyffryn Clwyd / Llangynhafal1,194CONCON5202281701142014832
DenbighshireLlanfair Dyffryn Clwyd / Gwyddelwern1,825CONCON592489330181150231,270
DenbighshireLlanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch1,531CONCON399363220142510181,067
DenbighshireRuthin4,334CONLAB9181,1952000605690773,019
 Total57,715CONCON18,29115,3741,27205963,908076640,207

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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