Clwyd West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Clwyd West: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: David Jones  (CON)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 57,714
Turnout: 69.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON20,40350.7%49.5%
LAB13,65634.0%36.3%
Plaid3,9079.7%9.7%
LIB2,2375.6%3.0%
Green00.0%0.4%
OTH00.0%1.1%
CON Majority6,74716.8%Pred Maj 13.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
79%
LAB
21%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Clwyd West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Clwyd West constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position1° Right8° Left
National Position6° Nat
Social Position4° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %55%53%52%
British Identity29%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born96%94%87%
Good Education37%37%39%
Good Job48%46%51%
High SEC49%46%51%
Average Age53.549.548.3
ABC1 Class48%48%54%

Clwyd West ranks #294 for "Leave", #328 for "Right", #255 for "National" and #241 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Clwyd West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Clwyd West

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Clwyd West.

Clwyd WestActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyAbergele Pensarn1,961LABLAB5956822304510111,366
ConwyBetws yn Rhos1,639CONCON58141023041150101,143
ConwyColwyn3,334CONCON9799541460171840442,324
ConwyEirias2,744CONCON92376258081390211,911
ConwyGele3,808CONCON1,51283949082230212,652
ConwyGlyn3,064LABLAB6951,02253083360212,135
ConwyKinmel Bay4,619CONCON1,7151,24052091770243,217
ConwyLlanddulas1,334CONCON49633623036109928
ConwyLlandrillo yn Rhos6,075CONCON2,6091,258980152120394,231
ConwyLlangernyw1,134CONCON321259120219006790
ConwyLlansannan1,489CONCON4293431603238081,037
ConwyLlysfaen1,926CONCON7564562204950101,343
ConwyMochdre1,484LABLAB393549180363081,034
ConwyPentre Mawr2,828CONCON1,08070750071060191,969
ConwyRhiw5,065CONCON1,8291,2162250261660673,529
ConwyTowyn1,852CONCON7234802104530101,291
ConwyUwchaled1,154CONCON332261120219106804
DenbighshireEfenechtyd1,343CONCON380301190322408935
DenbighshireLlanarmon-yn-Ial / Llandegla1,978CONCON86835730051070121,379
DenbighshireLlanbedr Dyffryn Clwyd / Llangynhafal1,194CONCON55321116034207832
DenbighshireLlanfair Dyffryn Clwyd / Gwyddelwern1,825CONCON64346431051150121,270
DenbighshireLlanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch1,531CONCON4413422103251091,067
DenbighshireRuthin4,334CONLAB1,0391,1431900225690573,020
 Total57,715CONCON19,89214,5921,20801683,908043940,207

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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