Clwyd West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Clwyd West: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: David Jones  (CON)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 57,714
Turnout: 69.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON20,40350.7%49.5%
LAB13,65634.0%34.4%
Plaid3,9079.7%10.5%
LIB2,2375.6%5.7%
CON Majority6,74716.8%Pred Maj 15.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
77%
LAB
22%
Plaid
1%
LIB
0%

Clwyd West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Clwyd West constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position1° Right9° Left
National Position6° Nat
Social Position4° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %55%53%52%
British Identity29%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education37%36%39%
Good Job48%46%51%
High SEC49%46%51%
Average Age53.549.648.5
ABC1 Class48%47%54%

Clwyd West ranks #294 for "Leave", #328 for "Right", #255 for "National" and #241 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Clwyd West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Clwyd West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Clwyd West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Clwyd West at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Clwyd West. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Clwyd WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
OTH
Votes
ConwyAbergele Pensarn20121454070000186
ConwyBetws yn Rhos201200000219565
ConwyColwyn2012694350515002620
ConwyEirias2012456018500161980
ConwyGele20121,2813850008381,435
ConwyGlyn2012273450000565180
ConwyKinmel Bay20121,094000001,703
ConwyLlanddulas201272098000377
ConwyLlandrillo yn Rhos20123,7667980001,107908
ConwyLlangernyw20125200004710
ConwyLlansannan201200000-10
ConwyLlysfaen2012208224057000
ConwyMochdre201211933500000
ConwyPentre Mawr20121,01703890000
ConwyRhiw20121,7022541,90000409108
ConwyTowyn2012-1000000
ConwyUwchaled2012000000-1
DenbighshireEfenechtyd201200000-10
DenbighshireLlanarmon-yn-Ial / Llandegla201252300000518
DenbighshireLlanbedr Dyffryn Clwyd / Llangynhafal20123481000000129
DenbighshireLlanfair Dyffryn Clwyd / Gwyddelwern2012000000-1
DenbighshireLlanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch201214600046219254
DenbighshireRuthin2012639473804001,1122,404

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Clwyd WestEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyAbergele Pensarn1,918596596580086001,336
ConwyBetws yn Rhos1,6475663566000165001,147
ConwyColwyn3,5891,19690715100246002,500
ConwyEirias2,78192870112600182001,937
ConwyGele3,6041,34076913400267002,510
ConwyGlyn3,3808981,06810400285002,355
ConwyKinmel Bay4,7621,8911,06615100210003,318
ConwyLlanddulas1,19742528159006900834
ConwyLlandrillo yn Rhos5,9252,3081,23022900360004,127
ConwyLlangernyw1,127399236370011300785
ConwyLlansannan1,4665043175100149001,021
ConwyLlysfaen2,1406766306700118001,491
ConwyMochdre1,506426496470080001,049
ConwyPentre Mawr2,7511,08758810800133001,916
ConwyRhiw5,1891,8851,18024100309003,615
ConwyTowyn1,862787377580076001,298
ConwyUwchaled1,08841923336007000758
DenbighshireEfenechtyd1,300425284550014100905
DenbighshireLlanarmon-yn-Ial / Llandegla1,8857483529200122001,314
DenbighshireLlanbedr Dyffryn Clwyd / Llangynhafal1,13146420055006800787
DenbighshireLlanfair Dyffryn Clwyd / Gwyddelwern1,7726473947300120001,234
DenbighshireLlanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch1,4554893125800154001,013
DenbighshireRuthin4,2411,3001,08218800385002,955
 Total57,71620,40413,6552,238003,9080040,205

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Clwyd West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Clwyd West.

Clwyd WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyAbergele Pensarn1,918579602590096001,336
ConwyBetws yn Rhos1,6475513616100174001,147
ConwyColwyn3,5891,16491815400265002,501
ConwyEirias2,78190370912800197001,937
ConwyGele3,6041,30878013700286002,511
ConwyGlyn3,3808681,07810700303002,356
ConwyKinmel Bay4,7621,8481,08015500235003,318
ConwyLlanddulas1,19741428560007500834
ConwyLlandrillo yn Rhos5,9252,2551,24823300391004,127
ConwyLlangernyw1,127389239380011900785
ConwyLlansannan1,4664913215200157001,021
ConwyLlysfaen2,1406576366900129001,491
ConwyMochdre1,506412501480088001,049
ConwyPentre Mawr2,7511,06259611000147001,915
ConwyRhiw5,1891,8381,19624500336003,615
ConwyTowyn1,862770383590086001,298
ConwyUwchaled1,08840923637007600758
DenbighshireEfenechtyd1,300413288560014800905
DenbighshireLlanarmon-yn-Ial / Llandegla1,8857313589300132001,314
DenbighshireLlanbedr Dyffryn Clwyd / Llangynhafal1,13145420356007400787
DenbighshireLlanfair Dyffryn Clwyd / Gwyddelwern1,7726313997400129001,233
DenbighshireLlanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch1,4554763165900162001,013
DenbighshireRuthin4,2411,2621,09519100407002,955
 Total57,71619,88513,8282,281004,2120040,206

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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