Copeland: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Copeland: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Trudy Harrison  (CON)
County/Area: Cumbria (North West)
Electorate: 61,693
Turnout: 68.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON22,85653.7%52.4%
LAB17,01440.0%42.2%
LIB1,8884.4%2.3%
Green7651.8%2.2%
OTH00.0%1.0%
CON Majority5,84213.7%Pred Maj 10.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
71%
LAB
29%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Copeland : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Copeland constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position3° Left4° Left
National Position9° Nat1° Nat
Social Position7° Con2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %60%54%52%
British Identity28%28%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born97%92%87%
Good Education35%37%39%
Good Job45%49%51%
High SEC45%48%51%
Average Age51.148.548.3
ABC1 Class45%50%54%

Copeland ranks #160 for "Leave", #396 for "Right", #171 for "National" and #110 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Copeland: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Copeland

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Copeland.

CopelandActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleAll Saints626CONCON2151622402308432
AllerdaleCrummock and Derwent Valley1,527CONCON692254300650121,053
AllerdaleDalton1,455CONCON626302310310121,002
AllerdaleKeswick4,304CONCON1,4081,24910601650402,968
CopelandArlecdon and Ennerdale3,680CONCON1,2601,162470450222,536
CopelandBeckermet1,707CONCON770340290260121,177
CopelandBlack Combe and Scafell3,385CONCON1,582638450460212,332
CopelandCleator Moor5,201LABLAB1,5501,889640510313,585
CopelandCorkickle1,598CONCON542505250180111,101
CopelandDistington, Lowca and Parton3,076CONLAB9811,045430330202,122
CopelandEgremont4,688LABLAB1,3441,746640500303,234
CopelandGosforth and Seascale3,335CONCON1,667499570520242,299
CopelandHillcrest4,191CONCON1,7401,003670490292,888
CopelandKells1,747LABLAB529615280190121,203
CopelandMillom4,476CONCON1,8641,084540570263,085
CopelandMoor Row and Bigrigg1,809CONCON620557340220141,247
CopelandMoresby1,478CONCON58239019016091,016
CopelandSneckyeat1,754LABLAB479664300220131,208
CopelandSt Bees1,810CONCON781386360300141,247
CopelandWhitehaven Central4,503CONCON1,5101,422770610323,102
CopelandWhitehaven South5,344LABLAB1,5282,014630480313,684
 Total61,694CONCON22,27017,9269730929042342,521

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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