Cotswolds, The: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Cotswolds, The: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Geoffrey Clifton-Brown  (CON)
County/Area: Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate: 81,939
Turnout: 74.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,48458.0%56.7%
LIB15,27025.0%13.9%
LAB7,11011.6%19.1%
Green3,3125.4%6.8%
OTH00.0%3.5%
CON Majority20,21433.0%Pred Maj 37.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
99%
LIB
0%
LAB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Cotswolds, The : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Cotswolds, The constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position14° Right7° Right
National Position3° Nat4° Nat
Social Position2° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %48%53%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born93%92%87%
Good Education46%41%39%
Good Job56%50%51%
High SEC59%52%51%
Average Age53.150.448.3
ABC1 Class61%54%54%

Cotswolds, The ranks #446 for "Leave", #79 for "Right", #332 for "National" and #325 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cotswolds, The: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Cotswolds, The

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Cotswolds, The.

Cotswolds, TheActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CotswoldAbbey2,011CONCON6823403450780571,502
CotswoldBlockley2,145CONCON98427611201760541,602
CotswoldBourton Vale2,168CONCON1,0732731330790611,619
CotswoldBourton Village2,398CONCON9393723250870681,791
CotswoldCampden and Vale4,854CONCON2,557570223016501103,625
CotswoldChedworth and Churn Valley2,026CONCON8292522940800571,512
CotswoldChesterton1,865CONCON6423163100700531,391
CotswoldColn Valley2,032CONCON1,0032208901620441,518
CotswoldErmin2,037CONCON9742421720750581,521
CotswoldFairford North1,991CONCON7482913150770561,487
CotswoldFosseridge2,130CONCON1,0902501160770571,590
CotswoldFour Acres1,550CONCON5322642570600441,157
CotswoldGrumbolds Ash with Avening2,058CONCON991332920760461,537
CotswoldKemble2,149CONCON1,0532428101880411,605
CotswoldLechlade, Kempsford and Fairford South4,865CONCON2,244666215040001073,632
CotswoldMoreton East2,383CONCON9173303750900671,779
CotswoldMoreton West1,948CONCON7792912610680551,454
CotswoldNew Mills1,858CONCON6453202990710531,388
CotswoldNorthleach2,212CONCON8962993100850631,653
CotswoldSandywell2,133CONCON1,0892741020780501,593
CotswoldSiddington and Cerney Rural2,167CONCON8433073350720611,618
CotswoldSouth Cerney Village2,117CONCON7923043440810601,581
CotswoldSt Michael's1,819CONCON5963283070760511,358
CotswoldStow2,077CONCON7993033110790591,551
CotswoldStratton2,080CONCON7742883490830591,553
CotswoldTetbury East and Rural1,960CONCON963278920860451,464
CotswoldTetbury Town1,830CONCON8123151110750521,365
CotswoldTetbury with Upton1,678CONCON816269710620351,253
CotswoldThe Ampneys and Hampton2,204CONCON9572662760840621,645
CotswoldThe Beeches2,221CONCON7743553810860631,659
CotswoldThe Rissingtons1,970CONCON9082487901960401,471
CotswoldWatermoor2,045CONCON6544213160780581,527
StroudKingswood1,851CONCON76125017801400521,381
StroudMinchinhampton3,765CONCON1,72655717402670862,810
StroudWotton-under-Edge5,343CONCON1,864792750043101513,988
 Total81,940CONCON34,70611,7018,50004,13802,13561,180

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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