Delyn: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Delyn: Overview

 Prediction: LAB gain from CON 

MP at 2019: Rob Roberts  (CON)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 54,552
Turnout: 70.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON16,75643.7%42.4%
LAB15,89141.4%45.0%
LIB2,3466.1%3.3%
Brexit1,9715.1%3.3%
Plaid1,4063.7%3.7%
Green00.0%0.6%
OTH00.0%1.7%
CON Majority8652.3%Pred Maj 2.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
44%
LAB
56%
LIB
0%
Brexit
0%
Plaid
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Delyn : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Delyn constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position6° Left8° Left
National Position6° Nat
Social Position3° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %55%53%52%
British Identity31%26%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born96%94%87%
Good Education35%37%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC46%46%51%
Average Age50.949.548.3
ABC1 Class46%48%54%

Delyn ranks #288 for "Leave", #427 for "Right", #245 for "National" and #293 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Delyn: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Delyn

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Delyn.

DelynActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FlintshireArgoed2,186CONCON6396251145516460411,536
FlintshireBagillt East1,477LABLAB38553917375420131,038
FlintshireBagillt West1,686LABLAB37170020406340151,186
FlintshireBrynford1,774CONCON74737918396440151,248
FlintshireCaerwys2,002CONCON756405894513650331,406
FlintshireCilcain1,538CONCON65032326306320151,082
FlintshireFfynnongroyw1,480LABLAB36259415355170131,041
FlintshireFlint Castle1,451LABLAB28364221335220141,020
FlintshireFlint Coleshill3,071LABLAB6891,228496812860302,162
FlintshireFlint Oakenholt2,316LABLAB541894465810530261,628
FlintshireFlint Trelawny2,713LABLAB6751,011456411730281,907
FlintshireGreenfield2,057LABLAB57568635589620231,448
FlintshireGronant1,258LABLAB3294701831518012883
FlintshireGwernaffield1,624CONCON69532130346380171,141
FlintshireGwernymynydd1,399CONCON5503292332529014982
FlintshireHalkyn1,425CONCON59429421325420141,002
FlintshireHolywell Central1,454LABLAB29363120345260141,023
FlintshireHolywell East1,398LABLAB3635031832548013982
FlintshireHolywell West1,781LABLAB41871921416310161,252
FlintshireLeeswood1,629CONCON51647234437540191,145
FlintshireMold Broncoed2,017LABLAB51373951459370241,418
FlintshireMold East1,533LABLAB37560327346170161,078
FlintshireMold South2,240CONCON62362011546161160401,576
FlintshireMold West2,031LABLAB464706414791390221,428
FlintshireMostyn (Delyn)1,477LABLAB40351017385510141,038
FlintshireNew Brighton2,371CONCON7296191365919590481,669
FlintshireNorthop2,491CONCON1,026546465710410261,752
FlintshireNorthop Hall1,325CONCON4473822632624014931
FlintshireTrelawnyd and Gwaenysgor1,454CONCON64029618315200131,023
FlintshireWhitford1,900CONCON6134741084915390381,336
 Total54,558CONLAB16,26417,2601,2651,2792481,405064038,361

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (24-Jul-2020 19:51, Py3L, sc2983)