Delyn: Seat Details

Delyn: Overview

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:Rob Roberts  (CON)
County/Area:Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate:54,560
Turnout:70.3%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON16,75643.7%28.6%
LAB15,89141.4%47.3%
LIB2,3466.1%5.1%
Reform1,9715.1%3.0%
Plaid1,4063.7%11.4%
Green00.0%2.0%
OTH00.0%2.7%
CON Majority8652.3%18.7%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
12%
LAB
88%
LIB
0%
Reform
0%
Plaid
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Delyn : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Delyn constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position6° Left8° Left
National Position6° Nat
Social Position3° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %55%53%52%
British Identity31%26%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born96%94%87%
Good Education35%37%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC46%46%51%
Average Age50.949.548.3
ABC1 Class46%48%54%
Average House Price£192,805£194,381£309,875

Delyn ranks #288 for "Leave", #427 for "Right", #245 for "National" and #293 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Delyn: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Delyn

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Delyn.

DelynActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FlintshireArgoed and New Brighton4,551CONLAB9581,404240101653640963,228
FlintshireBagillt3,192LABLAB5061,1938565442480562,197
FlintshireBrynford and Halkyn3,164CONCON90381210375392350622,229
FlintshireCaerwys2,012CONLAB50953910045281620421,425
FlintshireCilcain1,522CONCON4334195532211210301,111
FlintshireFlint: Castle1,813LABLAB2547115034251310301,235
FlintshireFlint: Coleshill and Trelawny6,070LABLAB9792,2531821188450201074,225
FlintshireFlint: Oakenholt1,725LABLAB2816185335231310301,171
FlintshireGreenfield2,008LABLAB3566656244291620381,356
FlintshireGwernaffield and Gwernymynydd3,021CONCON83782910966402320592,172
FlintshireHolywell Central1,439LABLAB207560402821109024989
FlintshireHolywell East1,426LABLAB253495413020123026988
FlintshireHolywell West1,756LABLAB2886685134261380311,236
FlintshireLeeswood1,615CONLAB3395085537231300321,124
FlintshireLlanasa and Trelawyd4,190LABLAB7951,51612288583040772,960
FlintshireMold Broncoed2,016LABLAB3617247340301540371,419
FlintshireMold East2,012LABLAB3307646737301630361,427
FlintshireMold South1,991CONLAB41864210935312110401,486
FlintshireMold West1,797LABLAB2916047335261870341,250
FlintshireMostyn1,460LABLAB2724974032191210271,008
FlintshireNorthop3,868CONLAB9751,15214484532890752,772
FlintshireWhitford1,913CONLAB43156610643271510411,365
 Total54,561CONLAB10,97618,1391,9601,1387624,36801,03038,373

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2022 (including four new unitary authorities with shadow wards).


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