Derbyshire North East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Derbyshire North East: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Lee Rowley  (CON)
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 72,360
Turnout: 68.0%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON28,89758.7%57.5%
LAB16,02132.6%34.9%
LIB3,0216.1%3.5%
Green1,2782.6%3.0%
OTH00.0%1.1%
CON Majority12,87626.2%Pred Maj 22.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
90%
LAB
10%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Derbyshire North East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Derbyshire North East constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015LABCONCON
Economic Position3° Left4° Right
National Position11° Nat7° Nat
Social Position6° Con4° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %62%59%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health43%45%48%
UK Born98%90%87%
Good Education34%37%39%
Good Job49%48%51%
High SEC49%47%51%
Average Age51.848.948.3
ABC1 Class49%50%54%

Derbyshire North East ranks #124 for "Leave", #394 for "Right", #113 for "National" and #156 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Derbyshire North East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Derbyshire North East

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Derbyshire North East.

Derbyshire North EastActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChesterfieldBarrow Hill and New Whittington4,307CONCON1,5971,0461580870432,931
ChesterfieldLowgates and Woodthorpe3,448CONCON1,1081,072900480272,345
North East DerbyshireAshover1,628CONCON841196350240111,107
North East DerbyshireBarlow and Holmesfield1,590CONCON776234340250111,080
North East DerbyshireBrampton and Walton2,827CONCON1,421376620460201,925
North East DerbyshireClay Cross North4,879CONCON1,5851,4961270730383,319
North East DerbyshireClay Cross South2,827LABLAB7999604801000171,924
North East DerbyshireCoal Aston3,040CONCON1,447486680460212,068
North East DerbyshireDronfield North2,866CONCON1,090720690490211,949
North East DerbyshireDronfield South4,918CONCON2,18779115001750433,346
North East DerbyshireDronfield Woodhouse1,514CONCON729220440240131,030
North East DerbyshireEckington North3,092CONCON1,236757490440182,104
North East DerbyshireEckington South and Renishaw4,677CONCON1,5301,3927201620263,182
North East DerbyshireGosforth Valley4,730CONCON2,1637691550870443,218
North East DerbyshireGrassmoor2,917LABLAB862983750430231,986
North East DerbyshireHolmewood and Heath376CONLAB11512770502256
North East DerbyshireKillamarsh East2,985CONCON1,134811310400142,030
North East DerbyshireKillamarsh West4,289CONCON1,6121,164570630222,918
North East DerbyshireNorth Wingfield Central4,380CONLAB1,3871,3901060630332,979
North East DerbyshireRidgeway and Marsh Lane1,433CONCON6362822702209976
North East DerbyshireTupton3,957CONCON1,4549961330710372,691
North East DerbyshireUnstone1,436CONCON6073182502009979
North East DerbyshireWingerworth4,226CONCON1,95958812401700362,877
 Total72,342CONCON28,27517,1741,74601,487053849,220

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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