Devon Central: Seat Details

Devon Central: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:Mel Stride  (CON)
County/Area:Devon (South West)
Electorate:75,385
Turnout:70.9%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
CON16,83131.5%31.5%
LAB16,77031.4%31.4%
LIB8,23215.4%15.4%
Reform7,78414.6%14.6%
Green3,3386.2%6.2%
OTH4770.9%0.9%
CON Majority610.1%0.1%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
100%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%
Reform
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Devon Central : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Devon Central constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2024CONCONLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right8° Right
National Position5° Nat4° Nat
Social Position1° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %50%53%52%
Average Age54.651.649.5
Good Education52%52%49%
Employed57%57%58%
Homeowner73%68%63%
Car owner90%84%77%
Married52%47%45%
Ethnic White98%93%83%
Christian51%49%50%
ABC1 Class57%58%56%
Gross Household Income£42,842£41,731£42,397
Deprivation49%50%52%
Average House Price£308,973£311,706£313,528

Devon Central ranks #410 for "Leave", #205 for "Economic Right Position", #283 for "National Position" and #356 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Devon Central: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Devon Central

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Devon Central.

Devon CentralActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred
Winner
Mid DevonBradninch1,560LIBLAB
Mid DevonCadbury1,490CONCON
Mid DevonCrediton Boniface3,250LABLAB
Mid DevonCrediton Lawrence3,280LABLAB
Mid DevonSandford and Creedy3,124CONCON
Mid DevonSilverton1,601LABLAB
Mid DevonTaw Vale1,751CONCON
Mid DevonUpper Yeo and Taw3,217CONCON
Mid DevonWay1,692CONCON
Mid DevonYeo3,001CONCON
TeignbridgeAshburton and Buckfastleigh7,161LABLAB
TeignbridgeBovey6,550LABLAB
TeignbridgeChudleigh4,802LABLAB
TeignbridgeHaytor2,151LABLAB
TeignbridgeKenn Valley6,743CONCON
TeignbridgeMoretonhampstead2,498CONCON
TeignbridgeTeign Valley4,153CONCON
West DevonChagford1,248CONCON
West DevonDrewsteignton1,431CONCON
West DevonExbourne3,340CONCON
West DevonHatherleigh2,550CONCON
West DevonOkehampton North4,232CONCON
West DevonOkehampton South2,930LABLAB
West DevonSouth Tawton1,630CONCON
 Total75,385CONCON

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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