Devon Central: Seat Details

Devon Central: Overview

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:Mel Stride  (CON)
County/Area:Devon (South West)
Electorate:74,926
Turnout:77.5%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON32,09555.3%28.9%
LAB14,37424.8%31.7%
LIB8,77015.1%19.9%
Green2,8334.9%8.3%
Reform00.0%11.2%
CON Majority17,72130.5%2.9%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
38%
LAB
52%
LIB
8%
Green
0%
Reform
1%

Devon Central : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Devon Central constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right8° Right
National Position5° Nat4° Nat
Social Position1° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %50%53%52%
Average Age54.651.649.5
Good Education52%52%49%
Employed57%57%58%
Homeowner73%68%63%
Car owner90%84%77%
Married52%47%45%
Ethnic White98%93%83%
Christian51%49%50%
ABC1 Class57%58%56%
Gross Household Income£42,845£41,731£42,397
Deprivation49%50%52%
Average House Price£311,499£311,706£313,528

Devon Central ranks #420 for "Leave", #188 for "Economic Right Position", #291 for "National Position" and #357 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Devon Central: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Devon Central

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Devon Central.

Devon CentralActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonExe Valley1,695CONCON35835820813081001,135
Mid DevonBradninch1,533CONLAB2502992711047400998
Mid DevonCadbury1,457CONCON36629616611875001,021
Mid DevonCrediton Boniface3,179CONLAB412691566225158002,052
Mid DevonCrediton Lawrence3,208CONLAB478662580228149002,097
Mid DevonSandford and Creedy3,056CONCON693641333235203002,105
Mid DevonSilverton1,566CONLAB27631329911076001,074
Mid DevonTaw Vale1,713CONCON392333161139100001,125
Mid DevonUpper Yeo and Taw3,147CONCON638633383241150002,045
Mid DevonWay1,654CONCON395333155135113001,131
Mid DevonYeo2,935CONCON618591432216153002,010
TeignbridgeAshburton and Buckfastleigh6,787CONLAB1,0251,5991,121484358004,587
TeignbridgeBovey6,332CONLAB1,2891,461786499330004,365
TeignbridgeChudleigh4,642CONLAB7351,063714327308003,147
TeignbridgeHaytor2,079CONCON497429245164108001,443
TeignbridgeKenn Valley6,519CONCON1,3111,2681,055468330004,432
TeignbridgeMoretonhampstead2,415CONLAB487518409186139001,739
TeignbridgeTeign Valley4,015CONCON870813590314267002,854
West DevonBridestowe209CONCON50322519900135
West DevonChagford1,206CONCON276247147948700851
West DevonDrewsteignton1,384CONCON33128113810910000959
West DevonExbourne3,229CONLAB698699270262202002,131
West DevonHatherleigh2,465CONCON589476190206108001,569
West DevonOkehampton North4,091CONLAB767947343321190002,568
West DevonOkehampton South2,833CONLAB430667250216196001,759
West DevonSouth Tawton1,576CONLAB323353188123119001,106
 Total74,925CONLAB14,55416,00310,0255,6734,1830050,438

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (19-Feb-2024 16:41, Py3L, sc493)