Devon Central: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Devon Central: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Mel Stride  (CON)
County/Area: Devon (South West)
Electorate: 74,926
Turnout: 77.5%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,09555.3%54.0%
LAB14,37424.8%30.6%
LIB8,77015.1%6.7%
Green2,8334.9%5.9%
OTH00.0%2.7%
CON Majority17,72130.5%Pred Maj 23.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
93%
LAB
7%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Devon Central : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Devon Central constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right7° Right
National Position5° Nat4° Nat
Social Position1° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %50%53%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born95%92%87%
Good Education43%41%39%
Good Job50%50%51%
High SEC54%52%51%
Average Age53.250.448.3
ABC1 Class54%54%54%

Devon Central ranks #420 for "Leave", #188 for "Right", #291 for "National" and #357 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Devon Central: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Devon Central

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Devon Central.

Devon CentralActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonExe Valley1,751CONCON7364011100610481,356
Mid DevonBoniface2,987CONCON98583929701100842,315
Mid DevonBradninch1,541CONCON5683821450550441,194
Mid DevonCadbury1,369CONCON682267440470211,061
Mid DevonLawrence2,894CONCON98877529501040822,244
Mid DevonNewbrooke1,298CONCON516313920490371,007
Mid DevonSandford and Creedy2,790CONCON1,3814887301850362,163
Mid DevonSilverton1,558CONCON5753861470570441,209
Mid DevonTaw1,415CONCON769237340400171,097
Mid DevonTaw Vale1,423CONCON680286340870171,104
Mid DevonUpper Yeo1,413CONCON578343860510381,096
Mid DevonWay1,332CONCON645242330960171,033
Mid DevonYeo2,836CONCON1,2486331550950692,200
TeignbridgeAshburton and Buckfastleigh6,810CONCON2,2682,053509025501925,277
TeignbridgeBovey6,437CONCON2,7411,732225018601064,990
TeignbridgeChudleigh4,721CONCON1,6361,244310033401333,657
TeignbridgeHaytor2,111CONCON999467640750311,636
TeignbridgeKenn Valley6,553CONCON2,7371,479453022401855,078
TeignbridgeMoretonhampstead2,439CONCON9825951490990651,890
TeignbridgeTeign Valley4,073CONCON1,71787820202690913,157
West DevonBridestowe211CONCON1074260603164
West DevonChagford1,209CONCON56423036090017937
West DevonDrewsteignton1,390CONCON6742503401030171,078
West DevonExbourne3,261CONCON1,5316807302070382,529
West DevonHatherleigh2,491CONCON1,320454600660301,930
West DevonOkehampton North4,128CONCON1,8961,00711701200583,198
West DevonOkehampton South2,868CONCON1,1397208302420402,224
West DevonSouth Tawton1,615CONCON6963534501370221,253
 Total74,924CONCON31,35817,7763,91103,45001,58258,077

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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