Devon West and Torridge: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Devon West and Torridge: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Geoffrey Cox  (CON)
County/Area: Devon (South West)
Electorate: 79,831
Turnout: 74.8%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,90460.1%56.2%
LIB10,91218.3%20.9%
LAB10,29017.2%17.8%
Green2,0773.5%3.6%
OTH5470.9%1.5%
CON Majority24,99241.8%Pred Maj 35.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
94%
LIB
3%
LAB
2%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Devon West and Torridge : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Devon West and Torridge constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right8° Right
National Position13° Nat4° Nat
Social Position6° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education37%40%39%
Good Job43%50%51%
High SEC47%52%51%
Average Age53.650.548.5
ABC1 Class45%54%54%

Devon West and Torridge ranks #219 for "Leave", #173 for "Right", #78 for "National" and #154 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Devon West and Torridge: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Devon West and Torridge: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Devon West and Torridge

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Devon West and Torridge at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Devon West and Torridge. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Devon West and TorridgeActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
TorridgeAppledore20151,10500548426382
TorridgeBideford East20151,37870901,779561569
TorridgeBideford North20151,6911,15284301,313634
TorridgeBideford South20151,8792,031798000
TorridgeBroadheath2015-100000
TorridgeClinton20150000333618
TorridgeClovelly Bay2015000-100
TorridgeCoham Bridge20157030000368
TorridgeForest20156940003330
TorridgeHartland and Bradworthy20150005985671,114
TorridgeHolsworthy20152,01004646293710
TorridgeKenwith20156560029900
TorridgeMonkleigh and Littleham2015346000192410
TorridgeNortham20152,44776401,0620945
TorridgeOrchard Hill20155150050500
TorridgeShebbear and Langtree20159000002900
TorridgeTamarside201500000-1
TorridgeThree Moors20157050003350
TorridgeTorrington20151,52249601,5001,528986
TorridgeTwo Rivers2015-100000
TorridgeWaldon201500000999
TorridgeWestward Ho!2015528000311473
TorridgeWinkleigh201566401820152356
West DevonBere Ferrers20151,3114300504445738
West DevonBridestowe20151,084303004491,298
West DevonBuckland Monachorum20151,3750001,0421,107
West DevonBurrator20159040006211,720
West DevonDartmoor20156300003980
West DevonMary Tavy2015000001,001
West DevonMilton Ford20156690000423
West DevonTamarside20154050000649
West DevonTavistock North20151,877529007692,632
West DevonTavistock South East20152,0780005721,300
West DevonTavistock South West201575143670105540

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Devon West and TorridgeEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TorridgeAppledore2,3121,0582843080640171,731
TorridgeBideford East4,9262,08585257501350383,685
TorridgeBideford North4,7801,82587868801440413,576
TorridgeBideford South4,3831,67992653701080303,280
TorridgeBroadheath1,403745121150026081,050
TorridgeClinton1,26358113818403309945
TorridgeClovelly Bay1,32566114315102908992
TorridgeCoham Bridge1,27964011716402708956
TorridgeForest1,424713135176032081,064
TorridgeHartland and Bradworthy2,4731,1632823230650171,850
TorridgeHolsworthy3,2091,5453653950780182,401
TorridgeKenwith1,412740115166028071,056
TorridgeMonkleigh and Littleham1,15551812717803208863
TorridgeNortham4,5752,11760156201070353,422
TorridgeOrchard Hill1,26764211915402707949
TorridgeShebbear and Langtree1,645828152205037081,230
TorridgeTamarside1,406684149179030091,051
TorridgeThree Moors1,346665127178031071,008
TorridgeTorrington4,6872,01971860001340383,509
TorridgeTwo Rivers1,404720120175029081,052
TorridgeWaldon1,387665147185031091,037
TorridgeWestward Ho!1,7197702022490490161,286
TorridgeWinkleigh1,7077931802480430131,277
West DevonBere Ferrers2,8721,2753694040800222,150
West DevonBridestowe2,2561,0612333210580151,688
West DevonBuckland Monachorum3,0721,3063375460910192,299
West DevonBurrator2,9691,2693604860860202,221
West DevonDartmoor1,813868195236049091,357
West DevonMary Tavy1,27358713219503008952
West DevonMilton Ford1,556768147206035091,165
West DevonTamarside1,424696149180031091,065
West DevonTavistock North4,0801,69756463201280313,052
West DevonTavistock South East2,9781,3393364510830192,228
West DevonTavistock South West3,0501,1844695250860192,283
 Total79,83035,90610,28910,91202,076054759,730

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Devon West and Torridge

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Devon West and Torridge.

Devon West and TorridgePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TorridgeAppledore2,3129902953540650271,731
TorridgeBideford East4,9261,94187467301380593,685
TorridgeBideford North4,7801,68590078301470613,576
TorridgeBideford South4,3831,55094662401110483,279
TorridgeBroadheath1,4037041271780270141,050
TorridgeClinton1,263544144209034014945
TorridgeClovelly Bay1,325622149177030014992
TorridgeCoham Bridge1,279603123189028013956
TorridgeForest1,4246711412040330141,063
TorridgeHartland and Bradworthy2,4731,0902933720670271,849
TorridgeHolsworthy3,2091,4513804590800312,401
TorridgeKenwith1,4126991211940290131,056
TorridgeMonkleigh and Littleham1,155484132201033013863
TorridgeNortham4,5751,98362265301100543,422
TorridgeOrchard Hill1,267605125179028012949
TorridgeShebbear and Langtree1,6457801592380380151,230
TorridgeTamarside1,4066431552070310151,051
TorridgeThree Moors1,3466251332050320131,008
TorridgeTorrington4,6871,88173969401370583,509
TorridgeTwo Rivers1,4046791262030300141,052
TorridgeWaldon1,3876241532130320151,037
TorridgeWestward Ho!1,7197202102830500231,286
TorridgeWinkleigh1,7077431882820440201,277
West DevonBere Ferrers2,8721,1913824610820342,150
West DevonBridestowe2,2569952433660590241,687
West DevonBuckland Monachorum3,0721,2163516070930322,299
West DevonBurrator2,9691,1823745450880322,221
West DevonDartmoor1,8138152032720500171,357
West DevonMary Tavy1,273550138220031013952
West DevonMilton Ford1,5567221542370360161,165
West DevonTamarside1,4246541552080320151,064
West DevonTavistock North4,0801,57758371301310483,052
West DevonTavistock South East2,9781,2523505100850322,229
West DevonTavistock South West3,0501,0944835860880322,283
 Total79,83033,56510,65112,49902,129088259,726

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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