Devon West and Torridge: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Devon West and Torridge: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Geoffrey Cox  (CON)
County/Area: Devon (South West)
Electorate: 79,831
Turnout: 74.8%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,90460.1%58.8%
LIB10,91218.3%8.2%
LAB10,29017.2%24.1%
Green2,0773.5%4.7%
OTH5470.9%4.1%
CON Majority24,99241.8%Pred Maj 34.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
98%
LIB
0%
LAB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Devon West and Torridge : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Devon West and Torridge constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right7° Right
National Position13° Nat4° Nat
Social Position6° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born96%92%87%
Good Education37%41%39%
Good Job43%50%51%
High SEC47%52%51%
Average Age53.650.448.3
ABC1 Class45%54%54%

Devon West and Torridge ranks #219 for "Leave", #173 for "Right", #78 for "National" and #154 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Devon West and Torridge: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Devon West and Torridge

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Devon West and Torridge.

Devon West and TorridgeActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TorridgeAppledore2,998CONCON1,245526191016101052,228
TorridgeBideford East4,185CONCON1,4971,164178015601133,108
TorridgeBideford North4,597CONCON1,7071,082249023201443,414
TorridgeBideford South2,471CONCON8267721080660651,837
TorridgeBideford West2,145CONCON7486291000520651,594
TorridgeBroadheath3,379CONCON1,66948414708301272,510
TorridgeGreat Torrington4,463CONCON1,423941595019201653,316
TorridgeHartland4,760CONCON2,232703236022601403,537
TorridgeHolsworthy2,528CONCON1,307363970510601,878
TorridgeMilton and Tamarside3,447CONCON1,8174421310750952,560
TorridgeMonkleigh and Putford3,257CONCON1,58642314201700992,420
TorridgeNortham4,220CONCON1,887823196010501233,134
TorridgeShebbear and Langtree3,130CONCON1,45048021207801042,324
TorridgeTwo Rivers and Three Moors3,336CONCON1,70344612501320732,479
TorridgeWestward Ho!3,075CONCON1,45649814807901052,286
TorridgeWinkleigh1,770CONCON7083001960430681,315
West DevonBere Ferrers2,976CONCON1,0216343840790912,209
West DevonBridestowe2,377CONCON1,1913171220570781,765
West DevonBuckland Monachorum3,033CONCON1,394411175016701072,254
West DevonBurrator2,933CONCON1,2243953930800862,178
West DevonDartmoor1,431CONCON707217630350401,062
West DevonMary Tavy1,338CONCON67018365037039994
West DevonMilton Ford1,486CONCON700292510330291,105
West DevonTamarside1,440CONCON721210630320441,070
West DevonTavistock North3,734CONCON1,614700219011201272,772
West DevonTavistock South East2,980CONCON1,41643313701380892,213
West DevonTavistock South West2,916CONCON1,22455414801520892,167
 Total80,405CONCON35,14314,4224,87102,82302,47059,729

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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