Dorset West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Dorset West: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Chris Loder  (CON)
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
Electorate: 80,963
Turnout: 75.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,58955.1%52.7%
LIB19,48332.0%27.6%
LAB5,7299.4%16.3%
Green2,1243.5%3.4%
CON Majority14,10623.2%Pred Maj 25.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
87%
LIB
11%
LAB
2%
Green
0%

Dorset West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Dorset West constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right8° Right
National Position6° Nat4° Nat
Social Position2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %51%53%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education43%40%39%
Good Job51%50%51%
High SEC55%52%51%
Average Age55.150.548.5
ABC1 Class54%54%54%

Dorset West ranks #389 for "Leave", #200 for "Right", #253 for "National" and #302 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Dorset West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Dorset West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Dorset West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Dorset West at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Dorset West. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Dorset WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
West DorsetBeaminster20152,75702,10905480
West DorsetBridport North20154,7331,6213,69308240
West DorsetBridport South20152,7501,2142,86801,445961
West DorsetBroadmayne and Crossways20151,6162741,0760280168
West DorsetBroadwindsor201592203142272080
West DorsetBurton Bradstock2015935039003920
West DorsetCerne Valley20152,9005091,50706430
West DorsetChickerell and Chesil Bank20155,3349751,03909860
West DorsetChideock and Symondsbury2015823031803490
West DorsetDorchester East20157525082,19408830
West DorsetDorchester North20152,0864932,7164551,147762
West DorsetDorchester South20157864542,3094347210
West DorsetDorchester West20151,4096761,85405770
West DorsetFrome Valley20151,0990004240
West DorsetLyme Regis and Charmouth20152,93101,3870606196
West DorsetMaiden Newton2015940237003750
West DorsetNetherbury2015919040602750
West DorsetPiddle Valley20151,095182003150
West DorsetPuddletown201589322030001500
West DorsetQueen Thorne20151,017002742260
West DorsetSherborne East20152,33308715308020
West DorsetSherborne West20151,71201,71941000
West DorsetWinterborne St Martin201566620602312980
West DorsetYetminster and Cam Vale20152,86802,362000

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Dorset WestEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
West DorsetBeaminster4,4021,8772601,0700106003,313
West DorsetBridport North6,3882,5395851,5070176004,807
West DorsetBridport South5,5012,1235021,3580156004,139
West DorsetBroadmayne and Crossways1,34156979328033001,009
West DorsetBroadwindsor2,1631,012116451048001,627
West DorsetBurton Bradstock2,184967117506053001,643
West DorsetCerne Valley4,2261,7782471,0470108003,180
West DorsetChickerell and Chesil Bank5,9122,7073891,2030150004,449
West DorsetChideock and Symondsbury2,047916114461049001,540
West DorsetDorchester East4,1931,4583951,1790124003,156
West DorsetDorchester North4,5771,6214541,2290141003,445
West DorsetDorchester South3,5361,2582391,0580105002,660
West DorsetDorchester West3,8481,3543951,0320115002,896
West DorsetFrome Valley1,96793095412043001,480
West DorsetLyme Regis and Charmouth4,2211,7992671,0010109003,176
West DorsetMaiden Newton2,236998148476061001,683
West DorsetNetherbury2,120934116494051001,595
West DorsetPiddle Valley2,178999124463052001,638
West DorsetPuddletown1,860816116419048001,399
West DorsetQueen Thorne2,053985101413046001,545
West DorsetSherborne East4,0621,7452759240113003,057
West DorsetSherborne West4,0091,6162641,0350103003,018
West DorsetWinterborne St Martin2,031910135428055001,528
West DorsetYetminster and Cam Vale3,9071,677195987081002,940
 Total80,96233,5885,72819,48102,1260060,923

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Dorset West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Dorset West.

Dorset WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
West DorsetBeaminster4,4021,7984889250102003,313
West DorsetBridport North6,3882,4249171,2960170004,807
West DorsetBridport South5,5012,0247881,1770151004,140
West DorsetBroadmayne and Crossways1,341545149284032001,010
West DorsetBroadwindsor2,163973228380046001,627
West DorsetBurton Bradstock2,184928230434051001,643
West DorsetCerne Valley4,2261,7024669080104003,180
West DorsetChickerell and Chesil Bank5,9122,6006961,0080145004,449
West DorsetChideock and Symondsbury2,047879220394047001,540
West DorsetDorchester East4,1931,3826131,0410120003,156
West DorsetDorchester North4,5771,5386921,0780136003,444
West DorsetDorchester South3,5361,1944239410101002,659
West DorsetDorchester West3,8481,2855959050111002,896
West DorsetFrome Valley1,967895197347042001,481
West DorsetLyme Regis and Charmouth4,2211,7234868620105003,176
West DorsetMaiden Newton2,236958264402059001,683
West DorsetNetherbury2,120896226424049001,595
West DorsetPiddle Valley2,178960237391050001,638
West DorsetPuddletown1,860782212358046001,398
West DorsetQueen Thorne2,053948207345044001,544
West DorsetSherborne East4,0621,6724867900109003,057
West DorsetSherborne West4,0091,544472903099003,018
West DorsetWinterborne St Martin2,031873240361053001,527
West DorsetYetminster and Cam Vale3,9071,607397858078002,940
 Total80,96232,1309,92916,81202,0500060,921

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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