Dunbartonshire East: Seat Details

Dunbartonshire East: Overview

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:Amy Callaghan  (SNP)
County/Area:Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:66,075
Turnout:80.3%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
SNP19,67237.1%41.8%
LIB19,52336.8%27.8%
CON7,45514.1%12.8%
LAB4,8399.1%10.3%
Green9161.7%2.6%
OTH6261.2%4.7%
SNP Majority1490.3%13.9%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
SNP
78%
LIB
19%
CON
2%
LAB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Dunbartonshire East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Dunbartonshire East constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017LIBSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position19° Left23° Left
National Position25° Glo15° Glo
Social Position19° Lib13° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %27%38%52%
British Identity36%27%29%
Good Health58%52%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education48%36%39%
Good Job65%49%51%
High SEC77%55%51%
Average Age52.048.648.3
ABC1 Class69%50%54%
Average House Price£259,920£174,688£309,875

Dunbartonshire East ranks #629 for "Leave", #588 for "Right", #616 for "National" and #634 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Dunbartonshire East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Dunbartonshire East

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Dunbartonshire East.

Dunbartonshire EastActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DunbartonshireBearsden North11,350LIBSNP1,4025802,88102873,47304889,111
East DunbartonshireBearsden South10,689LIBSNP1,4027042,62502603,14204458,578
East DunbartonshireBishopbriggs North and Campsie8,457SNPSNP8967171,62001443,05603556,788
East DunbartonshireBishopbriggs South12,022SNPSNP8511,5182,28401984,42503729,648
East DunbartonshireKirkintilloch East and North and Twechar1,602SNPSNP682303040216060581,287
East DunbartonshireLenzie and Kirkintilloch South11,713SNPSNP1,1579942,48002324,09904389,400
East DunbartonshireMilngavie10,242LIBSNP1,0257162,57002403,34603228,219
 Total66,075SNPSNP6,8015,45914,76401,38222,14702,47853,031

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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