East Lothian: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Lothian East, or click here to find another new seat.

East Lothian: Overview

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:Kenny MacAskill  (SNP)
County/Area:Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate:81,600
Turnout:71.7%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
SNP21,15636.2%24.3%
LAB17,27029.5%47.1%
CON15,52326.5%16.5%
LIB4,0717.0%4.4%
OTH4930.8%2.7%
Reform00.0%3.1%
Green00.0%1.9%
SNP Majority3,8866.6%22.8%
Pred Maj

Result shown is the original general election result. Mr MacAskill won the seat as the SNP candidate, but in March 2021 he left the SNP and joined the Alba party.

Chance of winning
SNP
7%
LAB
92%
CON
1%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%
Green
0%

East Lothian : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the East Lothian constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017LABSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position23° Left23° Left
National Position15° Glo15° Glo
Social Position13° Lib13° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %35%38%52%
Average Age50.248.649.5
Good Education36%36%49%
Employed67%64%58%
Homeowner65%62%63%
Car owner77%69%77%
Married51%45%45%
Ethnic White98%96%83%
Christian51%54%50%
ABC1 Class53%50%56%
Gross Household Income£32,771£31,060£42,397
Deprivation58%60%52%
Average House Price£230,906£174,274£313,528

East Lothian ranks #585 for "Leave", #615 for "Economic Right Position", #563 for "National Position" and #595 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

East Lothian: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for East Lothian

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of East Lothian.

East LothianActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
East LothianDunbar and East Linton11,570SNPLAB
East LothianHaddington and Lammermuir14,494SNPLAB
East LothianMusselburgh15,819SNPLAB
East LothianNorth Berwick Coastal11,109CONLAB
East LothianPreston, Seton and Gosford14,313SNPLAB
East LothianTranent, Wallyford and Macmerry14,295SNPLAB
 Total81,600SNPLAB

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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