Ellesmere Port and Neston: Seat Details

Ellesmere Port and Neston: Overview

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:Justin Madders  (LAB)
County/Area:Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:70,327
Turnout:69.3%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB26,00153.3%53.8%
CON17,23735.4%29.9%
LIB2,4064.9%4.0%
Reform2,1384.4%3.3%
Green9642.0%5.3%
OTH00.0%3.8%
LAB Majority8,76418.0%23.9%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LAB
93%
CON
7%
LIB
0%
Reform
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Ellesmere Port and Neston : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ellesmere Port and Neston constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position5° Left4° Left
National Position4° Nat1° Nat
Social Position2° Con2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %54%54%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born96%92%87%
Good Education37%37%39%
Good Job47%49%51%
High SEC47%48%51%
Average Age50.348.548.3
ABC1 Class48%50%54%
Average House Price£208,436£202,780£309,875

Ellesmere Port and Neston ranks #305 for "Leave", #418 for "Right", #312 for "National" and #303 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Ellesmere Port and Neston: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ellesmere Port and Neston

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ellesmere Port and Neston.

Ellesmere Port and NestonActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterCentral and Grange8,168LABLAB8773,80927719828102215,663
Cheshire West and ChesterGowy Rural5,322CONCON1,6581,31917011428801403,689
Cheshire West and ChesterLedsham and Manor7,789LABLAB1,8622,64223117728202055,399
Cheshire West and ChesterLittle Neston4,273CONLAB1,1811,2691489015901142,961
Cheshire West and ChesterNeston4,293LABLAB9261,628868814101072,976
Cheshire West and ChesterNetherpool4,239LABLAB7511,62818510714701202,938
Cheshire West and ChesterParkgate4,146CONLAB1,1121,1831539321901122,872
Cheshire West and ChesterSandstone10CONCON42100007
Cheshire West and ChesterStrawberry4,305LABLAB8831,6638510014501092,985
Cheshire West and ChesterSutton Villages8,310LABLAB1,2623,59221520027402175,760
Cheshire West and ChesterWestminster3,467LABLAB3911,68555731140852,403
Cheshire West and ChesterWhitby Groves3,790LABLAB8731,36184841290962,627
Cheshire West and ChesterWhitby Park4,158LABLAB7931,58814310114301132,881
Cheshire West and ChesterWillaston and Thornton4,254CONCON1,600943768114501042,949
Cheshire West and ChesterWolverham3,804LABLAB3861,88861881180952,636
 Total70,328LABLAB14,55926,2001,9701,5942,58501,83848,746

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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