Hampshire North East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Hampshire North East: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Ranil Jayawardena  (CON)
County/Area: Hampshire (South East)
Electorate: 78,954
Turnout: 75.1%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,28059.5%58.3%
LIB15,06925.4%14.4%
LAB5,7609.7%17.2%
Green1,7543.0%4.3%
OTH1,4072.4%5.8%
CON Majority20,21134.1%Pred Maj 41.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
100%
LIB
0%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Hampshire North East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Hampshire North East constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position22° Right11° Right
National Position1° Glo3° Nat
Social Position1° Lib1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %46%52%52%
British Identity32%29%29%
Good Health55%49%48%
UK Born91%88%87%
Good Education52%43%39%
Good Job67%56%51%
High SEC72%57%51%
Average Age50.149.148.3
ABC1 Class74%60%54%

Hampshire North East ranks #478 for "Leave", #1 for "Right", #418 for "National" and #431 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Hampshire North East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Hampshire North East

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Hampshire North East.

Hampshire North EastActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Basingstoke and DeaneBasing and Upton Grey1,326CONCON64417785032057995
Basingstoke and DeaneBramley6,435CONCON3,083855403027902114,831
Basingstoke and DeaneOakley and The Candovers943CONCON44512682023032708
Basingstoke and DeaneSherborne St John and Rooksdown2,180CONCON8884931290520751,637
Basingstoke and DeaneTadley and Pamber2,202CONCON9492862890540751,653
HartCrookham East6,005CONCON2,871766394015203244,507
HartCrookham West and Ewshot7,890CONCON3,7691,034504020304135,923
HartFleet Central6,756CONCON3,0361,011482017703675,073
HartFleet East5,988CONCON2,1597171,266015302004,495
HartFleet West6,639CONCON3,005819421036403734,982
HartHartley Wintney7,431CONCON3,222806917031603165,577
HartHook6,762CONCON2,961957661018103185,078
HartOdiham6,817CONCON3,270685583028402955,117
HartYateley East4,949CONCON1,802641986011901693,717
HartYateley West6,631CONCON2,4268041,349016102394,979
 Total78,954CONCON34,53010,1778,55102,55003,46459,272

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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