Harrogate and Knaresborough: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Harrogate and Knaresborough: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Andrew Jones  (CON)
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 77,914
Turnout: 73.1%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,96252.6%51.3%
LIB20,28735.6%26.4%
LAB5,4809.6%16.0%
OTH1,2082.1%5.1%
Green00.0%1.1%
CON Majority9,67517.0%Pred Maj 24.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
93%
LIB
5%
LAB
1%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Harrogate and Knaresborough : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Harrogate and Knaresborough constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Yorks/HumberAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position14° Right3° Left
National Position1° Glo4° Nat
Social Position1° Lib3° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %47%58%52%
British Identity31%28%29%
Good Health50%46%48%
UK Born90%91%87%
Good Education47%36%39%
Good Job58%47%51%
High SEC63%46%51%
Average Age50.948.348.3
ABC1 Class63%49%54%

Harrogate and Knaresborough ranks #459 for "Leave", #75 for "Right", #412 for "National" and #442 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Harrogate and Knaresborough: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Harrogate and Knaresborough

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Harrogate and Knaresborough.

Harrogate and KnaresboroughActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HarrogateBoroughbridge2,807CONCON1,3272733300240982,052
HarrogateClaro1,752CONCON8491342060150771,281
HarrogateFountains and Ripley255CONCON12816310209186
HarrogateHarrogate Bilton Grange3,094CONCON98343471402601042,261
HarrogateHarrogate Bilton Woodfield3,133CONCON1,02954758102601062,289
HarrogateHarrogate Central2,820CONCON1,04536151902401122,061
HarrogateHarrogate Coppice Valley3,019CONCON94443170602501002,206
HarrogateHarrogate Duchy2,566CONCON1,2171993440220931,875
HarrogateHarrogate Fairfax3,165LIBCON80760177102701062,312
HarrogateHarrogate Harlow2,941CONCON1,1733245310250952,148
HarrogateHarrogate High Harrogate3,019CONCON98249356102501432,204
HarrogateHarrogate Hookstone2,935CONCON9762927590250912,143
HarrogateHarrogate Kingsley2,952CONCON92144966102501002,156
HarrogateHarrogate New Park2,819CONCON8434436580240932,061
HarrogateHarrogate Oatlands3,382CONCON1,37932259902801412,469
HarrogateHarrogate Old Bilton2,934CONCON1,1212826270250892,144
HarrogateHarrogate Pannal2,768CONCON1,34518934802301172,022
HarrogateHarrogate Saltergate3,217CONCON1,35037050002701022,349
HarrogateHarrogate St Georges3,353CONCON1,41629853602801722,450
HarrogateHarrogate Starbeck2,853CONCON86139068202401262,083
HarrogateHarrogate Stray3,412CONCON1,34424868202901892,492
HarrogateHarrogate Valley Gardens3,065CONCON1,1893285960260992,238
HarrogateKillinghall and Hampsthwaite2,481CONCON1,2501852820210751,813
HarrogateKnaresborough Aspin and Calcutt3,155CONCON1,25326665202601082,305
HarrogateKnaresborough Castle3,487CONCON1,24541774202901142,547
HarrogateKnaresborough Eastfield2,538CONCON8742636160210791,853
HarrogateKnaresborough Scriven Park3,391CONCON1,08748675202801252,478
HarrogateOuseburn628CONCON298557305028459
 Total77,941CONCON29,2369,09615,059065502,89156,937

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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