Harrogate and Knaresborough: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Harrogate and Knaresborough, or click here to find another new seat.

Harrogate and Knaresborough: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Andrew Jones  (CON)
County/Area:North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:77,941
Turnout:73.1%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON29,96252.6%31.8%
LIB20,28735.6%26.3%
LAB5,4809.6%23.8%
OTH1,2082.1%1.0%
Reform00.0%12.0%
Green00.0%5.1%
CON Majority9,67517.0%5.4%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
54%
LIB
26%
LAB
20%
OTH
0%
Reform
1%
Green
0%

Harrogate and Knaresborough : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Harrogate and Knaresborough constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Yorks/HumberAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position14° Right2° Left
National Position1° Glo4° Nat
Social Position1° Lib3° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %47%58%52%
Average Age52.649.849.5
Good Education56%47%49%
Employed59%55%58%
Homeowner72%64%63%
Car owner84%76%77%
Married49%44%45%
Ethnic White95%85%83%
Christian57%48%50%
ABC1 Class68%51%56%
Gross Household Income£46,830£38,897£42,397
Deprivation42%53%52%
Average House Price£350,144£196,988£313,528

Harrogate and Knaresborough ranks #459 for "Leave", #75 for "Economic Right Position", #412 for "National Position" and #442 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Harrogate and Knaresborough: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Harrogate and Knaresborough

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Harrogate and Knaresborough.

Harrogate and KnaresboroughActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North YorkshireBilton Grange and New Park5,731CONLIB9261,0101,1194581940413,748
North YorkshireBilton and Nidd Gorge5,745CONCON1,1059121,0544861710393,767
North YorkshireBoroughbridge and Claro4,992CONCON1,3566525334241720183,155
North YorkshireCoppice Valley and Duchy5,622CONCON1,2428941,0204461980403,840
North YorkshireFairfax and Starbeck5,848LIBLIB8041,1161,1314411910413,724
North YorkshireHarlow and St. Georges6,335CONCON1,6089941,0955212400514,509
North YorkshireHigh Harrogate and Kingsley6,251CONLAB1,0091,1901,1154732130494,049
North YorkshireKillinghall, Hampsthwaite and Saltergate6,170CONCON1,4329478665082090373,999
North YorkshireKnaresborough East6,095CONLIB1,1561,0421,1934922160434,142
North YorkshireKnaresborough West6,303CONCON1,4749241,2415242140404,417
North YorkshireMasham and Fountains315CONCON844826321601207
North YorkshireOatlands and Pannal6,124CONCON1,7558821,0605062280354,466
North YorkshireOuseburn493CONCON1337932432402313
North YorkshireStray, Woodlands and Hookstone5,940CONCON1,4157721,3104791960414,213
North YorkshireValley Gardens and Central Harrogate5,978CONCON1,1801,0121,0294642160513,952
 Total77,942CONCON16,67912,47413,8246,2972,698052952,501

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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