Harwich and North Essex: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Harwich and North Essex: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Bernard Jenkin  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 74,153
Turnout: 70.1%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,83061.3%60.0%
LAB11,64822.4%26.6%
LIB5,86611.3%5.7%
Green1,9453.7%4.5%
OTH6741.3%3.2%
CON Majority20,18238.8%Pred Maj 33.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
98%
LAB
2%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Harwich and North Essex : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Harwich and North Essex constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right9° Right
National Position10° Nat7° Nat
Social Position5° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %56%56%52%
British Identity25%27%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born94%89%87%
Good Education37%37%39%
Good Job52%52%51%
High SEC53%53%51%
Average Age51.649.348.3
ABC1 Class55%55%54%

Harwich and North Essex ranks #258 for "Leave", #138 for "Right", #147 for "National" and #203 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Harwich and North Essex: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Harwich and North Essex

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Harwich and North Essex.

Harwich and North EssexActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ColchesterBerechurch495CONCON1611412201509348
ColchesterLexden and Braiswick4,411CONCON2,12154517501650843,090
ColchesterMersea and Pyefleet8,199CONCON3,9371,036215034102155,744
ColchesterOld Heath and The Hythe1,724LABCON542513610650271,208
ColchesterRural North8,625CONCON4,359945277030801556,044
ColchesterWivenhoe6,752CONCON2,3751,440487025501744,731
TendringAlresford and Elmstead5,376CONCON2,276814359017401433,766
TendringArdleigh and Little Bromley2,164CONCON1,0322821120440451,515
TendringBrightlingsea6,870CONCON3,0521,085249022802004,814
TendringDovercourt All Saints5,274CONCON1,8831,49512908601033,696
TendringDovercourt Bay2,261CONCON742708590460311,586
TendringDovercourt Tollgate2,454CONCON928662530380371,718
TendringDovercourt Vines and Parkeston2,124CONCON700653510370471,488
TendringHarwich and Kingsway2,592LABLAB788870560550471,816
TendringLawford, Manningtree and Mistley6,685CONCON2,5371,417364022201444,684
TendringStour Valley2,476CONCON1,0943877301010811,736
TendringThe Bentleys and Frating2,620CONCON1,2183381290960551,836
TendringThe Oakleys and Wix2,472CONCON1,164399500490691,731
TendringWeeley and Tendring581CONCON2619026011019407
 Total74,155CONCON31,17013,8202,94702,33601,68551,958

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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