Hastings and Rye: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Hastings and Rye: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Sally-Ann Hart  (CON)
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
Electorate: 80,524
Turnout: 67.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON26,89649.6%48.3%
LAB22,85342.1%45.3%
LIB3,9607.3%3.3%
OTH5651.0%2.5%
Green00.0%0.6%
CON Majority4,0437.4%Pred Maj 3.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
57%
LAB
43%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Hastings and Rye : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Hastings and Rye constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right
National Position6° Nat3° Nat
Social Position2° Con1° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %56%52%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health40%49%48%
UK Born92%88%87%
Good Education34%43%39%
Good Job47%56%51%
High SEC47%57%51%
Average Age50.549.148.3
ABC1 Class47%60%54%

Hastings and Rye ranks #275 for "Leave", #337 for "Right", #266 for "National" and #328 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Hastings and Rye: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Hastings and Rye

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Hastings and Rye.

Hastings and RyeActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HastingsAshdown4,101CONCON1,653956700130712,763
HastingsBaird3,805LABLAB1,1211,343490100412,564
HastingsBraybrooke3,996LABLAB1,0261,514830150542,692
HastingsCastle4,606LABLAB1,1851,60616002601283,105
HastingsCentral St Leonards4,639LABLAB1,1771,790860160593,128
HastingsConquest3,888CONCON1,5788611010170642,621
HastingsGensing4,513LABLAB1,0971,797800150543,043
HastingsHollington3,964LABLAB1,0331,519540110542,671
HastingsMaze Hill3,841CONCON1,508916920160572,589
HastingsOld Hastings4,111LABLAB1,1441,469880160542,771
HastingsOre3,972CONLAB1,2721,273610120602,678
HastingsSilverhill4,258CONCON1,3681,349830150542,869
HastingsSt Helens4,023CONCON1,3891,159930160552,712
HastingsTressell3,721LABLAB8931,492630120502,510
HastingsWest St Leonards3,686CONCON1,2709921330210682,484
HastingsWishing Tree4,334LABLAB1,1921,594720140492,921
RotherBrede and Udimore1,831CONCON78033036070811,234
RotherEastern Rother2,602CONCON1,169466690120381,754
RotherRye and Winchelsea3,959CONCON1,40796515102401222,669
RotherSedlescombe and Westfield3,039CONCON1,39054538080672,048
RotherSouthern Rother3,637CONCON1,5586561220200972,453
 Total80,526CONCON26,21024,5921,784031601,37754,279

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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