Henley: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Henley: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: John Howell  (CON)
County/Area: Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate: 76,660
Turnout: 76.6%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,18954.8%53.5%
LIB18,13630.9%19.9%
LAB5,6989.7%17.1%
Green2,7364.7%6.0%
OTH00.0%3.5%
CON Majority14,05323.9%Pred Maj 33.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
97%
LIB
2%
LAB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Henley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Henley constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position15° Right11° Right
National Position3° Glo3° Nat
Social Position1° Lib1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %43%52%52%
British Identity31%29%29%
Good Health53%49%48%
UK Born91%88%87%
Good Education51%43%39%
Good Job63%56%51%
High SEC66%57%51%
Average Age51.649.148.3
ABC1 Class69%60%54%

Henley ranks #508 for "Leave", #57 for "Right", #448 for "National" and #461 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Henley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Henley

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Henley.

HenleyActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellFringford and Heyfords774CONCON3777865052021593
CherwellLaunton and Otmoor3,581CONCON1,59569724701110952,745
South OxfordshireBenson and Crowmarsh6,020CONCON2,438618974042501604,615
South OxfordshireBerinsfield2,922CONCON1,10552627902540782,242
South OxfordshireChalgrove2,710CONCON9362946900860722,078
South OxfordshireChinnor6,832CONCON3,0917161,023022501825,237
South OxfordshireForest Hill and Holton2,715CONCON9183666330930722,082
South OxfordshireGarsington and Horspath2,836CONCON1,14746730601780752,173
South OxfordshireGoring3,120CONCON1,16940863001010832,391
South OxfordshireHaseley Brook3,148CONCON1,32131659101010842,413
South OxfordshireHenley-on-Thames8,819CONCON3,8031,2381,143034302356,762
South OxfordshireKidmore End and Whitchurch2,861CONCON1,27644129201080762,193
South OxfordshireSandford and the Wittenhams2,205CONCON92626722702120591,691
South OxfordshireSonning Common5,556CONCON2,691687540019301484,259
South OxfordshireThame9,739CONCON3,2031,5122,152034102597,467
South OxfordshireWatlington3,052CONCON1,27430557801010812,339
South OxfordshireWheatley3,233LIBCON98947681701100862,478
South OxfordshireWoodcote and Rotherfield6,522CONCON3,187662485049001734,997
 Total76,645CONCON31,44610,07411,67203,52402,03958,755

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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