Hertfordshire North East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Hertfordshire North East: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Oliver Heald  (CON)
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 76,123
Turnout: 72.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,29356.6%55.4%
LAB13,10423.7%25.0%
LIB8,56315.5%15.1%
Green2,3674.3%4.6%
CON Majority18,18932.9%Pred Maj 30.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
92%
LAB
7%
LIB
1%
Green
0%

Hertfordshire North East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Hertfordshire North East constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right9° Right
National Position3° Nat7° Nat
Social Position1° Con3° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %50%56%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born92%89%88%
Good Education43%37%39%
Good Job58%53%51%
High SEC60%53%51%
Average Age50.549.448.5
ABC1 Class61%55%54%

Hertfordshire North East ranks #414 for "Leave", #141 for "Right", #322 for "National" and #343 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Hertfordshire North East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Hertfordshire North East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Hertfordshire North East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Hertfordshire North East at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Hertfordshire North East. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Hertfordshire North EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
East HertfordshireBraughing20151,081246002010
East HertfordshireBuntingford20153,27989308244190
East HertfordshireHertford Rural North20151,023146001480
East HertfordshireHertford Rural South201595617312400274
East HertfordshireLittle Hadham20159970003570
East HertfordshireMundens and Cottered20151,0532860000
East HertfordshirePuckeridge2015940277001750
East HertfordshireThundridge and Standon20151,1953370000
East HertfordshireWalkern20151,1783420000
East HertfordshireWatton-at-Stone201593115702061080
North HertfordshireArbury20151,06617419102140
North HertfordshireBaldock East2012475863920540
North HertfordshireBaldock Town20152,08176805334020
North HertfordshireErmine20151,1460003760
North HertfordshireLetchworth East201438759403011680
North HertfordshireLetchworth Grange20151,5471,2702244742980
North HertfordshireLetchworth South East20151,7171,19305352700
North HertfordshireLetchworth South West20152,1287744584315570
North HertfordshireLetchworth Wilbury201449762402251220
North HertfordshireRoyston Heath20151,5604994113702160
North HertfordshireRoyston Meridian20151,92444238102850
North HertfordshireRoyston Palace20151,1556342364611770
North HertfordshireWeston and Sandon2015427075101240

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Hertfordshire North EastEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East HertfordshireBraughing2,036929259225066001,479
East HertfordshireBuntingford4,3002,0155604270123003,125
East HertfordshireHertford Rural North1,830860204209057001,330
East HertfordshireHertford Rural South2,028939223258055001,475
East HertfordshireLittle Hadham1,977910233227067001,437
East HertfordshireMundens and Cottered1,987963239196047001,445
East HertfordshirePuckeridge2,114957304214062001,537
East HertfordshireThundridge and Standon2,4621,169306254061001,790
East HertfordshireWalkern2,2091,016300234056001,606
East HertfordshireWatton-at-Stone1,861865241192054001,352
North HertfordshireArbury2,176929268310075001,582
North HertfordshireBaldock East2,305901334363077001,675
North HertfordshireBaldock Town5,8822,4211,0636020188004,274
North HertfordshireErmine2,080965237241068001,511
North HertfordshireLetchworth East4,4111,4461,1824230154003,205
North HertfordshireLetchworth Grange5,8302,1761,3315640167004,238
North HertfordshireLetchworth South East5,8362,2111,2995560175004,241
North HertfordshireLetchworth South West6,2792,3731,1098460236004,564
North HertfordshireLetchworth Wilbury4,2281,4291,1383790126003,072
North HertfordshireRoyston Heath4,1691,6866455660133003,030
North HertfordshireRoyston Meridian4,2981,8405965540134003,124
North HertfordshireRoyston Palace4,1601,6248174570126003,024
North HertfordshireWeston and Sandon1,665667216269059001,211
 Total76,12331,29113,1048,56602,3660055,327

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Hertfordshire North East

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Hertfordshire North East.

Hertfordshire North EastPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East HertfordshireBraughing2,036911278219070001,478
East HertfordshireBuntingford4,3001,9786004160131003,125
East HertfordshireHertford Rural North1,830844221204061001,330
East HertfordshireHertford Rural South2,028921243251059001,474
East HertfordshireLittle Hadham1,977893252221071001,437
East HertfordshireMundens and Cottered1,987946257191051001,445
East HertfordshirePuckeridge2,114939324209066001,538
East HertfordshireThundridge and Standon2,4621,148329248066001,791
East HertfordshireWalkern2,209997321228060001,606
East HertfordshireWatton-at-Stone1,861849258187058001,352
North HertfordshireArbury2,176910290302080001,582
North HertfordshireBaldock East2,305881357354082001,674
North HertfordshireBaldock Town5,8822,3701,1185870200004,275
North HertfordshireErmine2,080947257235072001,511
North HertfordshireLetchworth East4,4111,4081,2224120163003,205
North HertfordshireLetchworth Grange5,8302,1261,3845500178004,238
North HertfordshireLetchworth South East5,8362,1611,3525420186004,241
North HertfordshireLetchworth South West6,2792,3191,1728240249004,564
North HertfordshireLetchworth Wilbury4,2281,3921,1763690134003,071
North HertfordshireRoyston Heath4,1691,6506875520142003,031
North HertfordshireRoyston Meridian4,2981,8036385400143003,124
North HertfordshireRoyston Palace4,1601,5888564450134003,023
North HertfordshireWeston and Sandon1,665653233263063001,212
 Total76,12330,63413,8258,34902,5190055,327

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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