Hull North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Hull North: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2019: Diana Johnson  (LAB)
County/Area: Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 65,515
Turnout: 52.2%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB17,03349.8%55.4%
CON9,44027.6%26.3%
Brexit4,77113.9%8.8%
LIB2,0846.1%3.3%
Green8752.6%3.6%
OTH00.0%2.6%
LAB Majority7,59322.2%Pred Maj 29.1%
Chance of
winning
LAB
95%
CON
5%
Brexit
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Hull North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Hull North constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Yorks/HumberAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position13° Left3° Left
National Position4° Nat
Social Position5° Lib3° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %61%58%52%
British Identity23%28%29%
Good Health46%46%48%
UK Born89%91%87%
Good Education35%36%39%
Good Job39%47%51%
High SEC32%46%51%
Average Age43.448.348.3
ABC1 Class41%49%54%

Hull North ranks #139 for "Leave", #524 for "Right", #407 for "National" and #512 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Hull North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Hull North

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Hull North.

Hull NorthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Kingston upon HullAvenue8,668LABLAB1,0892,50616840023901224,524
Kingston upon HullBeverley and Newland9,392LABLAB1,4372,34922448625601514,903
Kingston upon HullBricknell6,495CONLAB1,3821,52997226850733,392
Kingston upon HullCentral998LABLAB9835194011011520
Kingston upon HullKingswood6,401LABLAB1,0671,53516133214201053,342
Kingston upon HullNorth Carr9,936LABLAB1,1353,16311646318801235,188
Kingston upon HullOrchard Park10,170LABLAB1,0043,556944419901145,308
Kingston upon HullSutton175CONLAB27473930392
Kingston upon HullUniversity6,047LABLAB7741,892712471030693,156
Kingston upon HullWest Carr7,234LABLAB9912,0171843739401193,778
 Total65,516LABLAB9,00418,9451,1273,0171,220089034,203

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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